Associated Press
The possibility of a great red wave still looms.
But as the 2022 midterm elections enter their final two-month sprint, leading Republicans concede that their party’s advantage may be slipping even as Democrats confront their president’s weak standing, deep voter pessimism and the weight of history this fall.
The political landscape, while still in flux, follows a string of President Joe Biden’s legislative victories on climate, health care and gun violence, just as Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidates in electoral battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania struggle to broaden their appeal. But nothing has undermined the GOP’s momentum more than the Supreme Court’s stunning decision in June to end abortion protections, which triggered a swift backlash even in the reddest of red states.
“This midterm looks and feels significantly different than it did six months ago,” said veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. The abortion ruling “has energized some segments, especially the Democratic constituency, and it has thrown a wrench, at least to some extent, into the hopes of winning a ton of seats.”
In the modern era, the party that holds the White House has lost congressional seats in virtually every first-term President’s first midterm election. Ronald Reagan lost 26 House seats, Bill Clinton lost 52, Barack Obama 63 and Trump 40. Only George W. Bush’s Republican Party enjoyed a modest eight-seat gain in his first midterm, coming after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Nine weeks before Election Day, leading operatives in both parties expect Republicans to pick up roughly 10 to 20 House seats, which would give the GOP a narrow majority in the chamber in November and break up Democrats’ control of the federal government. But many Republicans are losing confidence in the high-stakes fight for the Senate majority and key governorships across the nation.
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel acknowledged that the GOP must sharpen its message on abortion given the Democrats’ apparent momentum.
“We can’t allow them to control the narrative,” McDaniel said in an interview.
She emphasized Republican leaders’ record of supporting exceptions for abortion in cases of rape, incest and the life of the mother, sidestepping questions about candidates like Mastriano, Georgia Senate nominee Herschel Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who oppose such exceptions.
“I’m not going to speak about every candidate and where they’re at,” McDaniel said.
On the Republican Party’s broader midterm outlook, McDaniel said top races were always likely to tighten, despite the conventional wisdom that a massive red wave was building.
“Many of these states are battleground states,” she said. “It’s going to be tight.”
On paper, Republicans continue to enjoy tremendous advantages.
Beyond the weight of history, Democrats are saddled with Biden’s low favorability ratings as roughly 7 in 10 voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Democratic strategists acknowledge serious political headwinds as inflation and pessimism surge, but they note gas prices have ticked down, pandemic worries have waned and Biden has won major legislative victories on several key issues.
“Republicans haven’t taken advantage of the bad political environment. And they punted on having any agenda or getting anything done,” said Biden pollster John Anzalone, who was far less confident about the midterm outlook at the beginning of the summer.
“Historically, this should be a 30- or 40-seat win by Republicans,” he added. “The entire Republican Party has been one big mistake for the past four or five months.”
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has blamed GOP “candidate quality” for why his party was more likely to win the House than the Senate.
Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who leads the Senate GOP campaign arm, sees it differently.
“He and I clearly have a disagreement on this. I think we’ve got great candidates,” Scott told the AP, citing opportunities to challenge Democrats in blue states like Colorado and Washington state. “I think we’re doing fine.”
Scott did acknowledge some uncertainty involving Trump’s role in the coming weeks.
The former President helped his loyalists, most of whom embraced his conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, win primary elections across the country throughout the spring and summer. But it’s unclear how Trump will help them, if at all, as the election moves into the fall.
“He’s got a choice about what he wants to do. He clearly has some candidates that he wanted to get through the primaries and they did,” Scott said. “He’ll make his own decision on what he wants to do.”
At the same time, a disproportionate number of women are registering to vote. And if recent voting patterns hold, that’s good news for Democrats.
Trump-backed Republicans who oppose abortion rights are fighting for momentum in several swing states.
A leading Republican Senate super PAC recently canceled television ad reservations in Arizona, where Blake Masters is running, while committing $28 million to help Trump loyalist JD Vance in Ohio, a state Trump carried by 8 points in the last election. In Pennsylvania, there are concerns that Mastriano is dragging down the rest of the Republican ticket, while Trump-endorsed GOP Senate nominee Mehmet Oz is struggling with residency questions. And in Georgia, Walker is facing difficult questions about his past and his opposition to abortion in all cases.
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Material published with permission of The Associated Press.
13 comments
Tom
September 5, 2022 at 6:06 pm
Fake news, House highly likely to flip. 20 to 30 seat pick up, net.
Senate tight, still could lick up 2 or 3 net.
Dems have vulnerable states.
60 days long run.
Pastor Sandell
September 5, 2022 at 6:38 pm
👆God and baby Jesus save us from these neo nazi maniacs. Need to give Canada control of our nuclear arsenal because of these stupid people.
Don’t Look Up
September 5, 2022 at 8:09 pm
Trump addressed the ‘very unfair’ treatment of his January 6th terrorist in his recent Pennsylvania rally. As noted elsewhere Trump highlighted the particular case of self described white supremacist, neo-nazi Timothy Hale-Cusanelli. I want everyone reading this to google Timothy Hale-Cusanelli and scroll through his online images. Republicans have absolutely no credibility to chastise Biden for calling out the most disturbing Ultra MAGA criminals within the GQP.
marylou
September 6, 2022 at 4:23 pm
Thank you! Timothy Hale-Cusanelli’s photos and history are disgusting…just what you’d expect in another one of Trump’s “best people”,
that the law and order (lol) Trumpidiots will try to defend by squawking something unintelligible about Biden.
tom palmer
September 5, 2022 at 6:42 pm
We’ll see. The GOP and Amerika’s so-called governor have gone out of their way to alienate a lot of voters, which could have an effect on the outcome. As they say, your friends come and go, but your enemies accumulate.
Impeach Biden
September 5, 2022 at 7:30 pm
Checking one, two, three. Will FP allow me to comment or are the left wing liberals running this site?
Joe Corsin
September 5, 2022 at 8:06 pm
^ Always a conspiracy to deprive the far right of the ability to pollute society…it’s never their despicable ideology, behavior, or stupidity.
Impeach Biden
September 5, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Stupid people voted for Biden. That’s a fact. Just look at his administration from his VP pick to his Sec of Energy and Sec of Transportation to the Director of Homeland Security. Stupid people vote for stupid people.
Joe Corsin
September 5, 2022 at 10:22 pm
You full of right wing manure buddy. Trump was a liar and crook…and you idiots voted for him. Enough scapegoating..
Ocean Joe
September 6, 2022 at 3:52 pm
“There are many fine/stupid people on both sides”
“We are going to build a wall around Impeach Biden’s comments and make Tom pay for it.”
“I am a stable genius. Man, woman, dog, cat!”
Don’t Look Up
September 5, 2022 at 8:08 pm
Trump addressed the ‘very unfair’ treatment of his January 6th terrorist in his recent Pennsylvania rally. As noted elsewhere Trump highlighted the particular case of self described white supremacist, neo-nazi Timothy Hale-Cusanelli. I want everyone reading this to google Timothy Hale-Cusanelli and scroll through his online images. Republicans have absolutely no credibility to chastise Biden for calling out the most disturbing Ultra MAGA criminals within the GQP.
If Americans want women to control their own bodies, qualified teachers to replace DeSantis’s culture wars in classrooms, intelligent teacher-student conversations concerning the social issues facing Americans in the 21st century, non-bullying discussion about classroom students who are different, common sense gun regulations, and a new honest approach on how best to address climate change……
AMERICANS MUST VOTE ALL REPUBLICANS OUT OF OFFICE.
REPUBLICANS ARE AMERICA’S PROBLEM.
PeterH
September 5, 2022 at 8:27 pm
Republicans are missing a golden opportunity to exploit a Party win……but
Since Reagan made abortion a religious and Republican Party issue instead of a family decision between a woman and her physician……. I don’t understand why Republicans who have fought for five decades to overturn Roe v Wade are not campaigning and championing their historic win with ads and candidate endorsements?
Here in Florida we never hear from Rubio, Scott or DeSantis on this historic win for the GOP!
REPUBLICANS ARE AMERICA’S PROBLEM.
VOTE ALL REPUBLICANS OUT OF OFFICE.
Hope
September 6, 2022 at 8:52 am
Biden desperate, his candidates won’t be seen near him, why doesn’t he talk about his record, oh, that’s right he has none. Democratic candidates Warnock and Fetterman are falling apart. Trump appointed a Special Master so it’s over, no more talk about the “raid” it was bogus! FBI agent buried Hunters laptop – hiding his treason – this has been exposed and this will be the issue that Democrats will try to hide and Republicans will put front and center. It’s over for Democrats!
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