Joe Henderson
We’re in the home stretch of the Florida Midterm Elections, and this is where we’re supposed to hyperventilate anytime a poll shows a 1 point swing. As dedicated observers of the political scene, we’re supposed to dissect debates as if they were the Dead Sea Scrolls.
And we will do that.
If we’re honest, though, at this point, the election seems to have as much drama as a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and a high school team.
A quick tour through the FiveThirtyEight political prognostication site backs up that assertion.
In breaking down each Florida U.S. House race, the site projects 20 Republican wins to only eight for Democrats. That’s not the whole story, though. The races aren’t just victories for Republicans; they are blowouts.
In 14 of the races, the GOP candidate received a 99% chance of winning, and no Republican was less than 90%. By contrast, the Maria Elvira Salazar race against Democrat Annette Taddeo in the Florida’s 27th Congressional District is an absolute nail-biter; Salazar has only a 91% chance of winning.
Seven of the eight Democrats’ eight projected winners also have a 99% chance of success. Jared Moskowitz in CD 23 is the outlier at, oh dear, only 95%.
In the Senate race, FiveThirtyEight predicts a 7-point win for Marco Rubio over Val Demings and gives him an 87% chance of holding on. And the prediction model gives Gov. Ron DeSantis a 94% chance of victory against Charlie Crist.
Assuming these trends hold, what conclusions can we draw?
Start with the House races. When DeSantis took the unusual step of interjecting himself into the redistricting process, folks immediately recognized that he had essentially rigged the system.
The projected blowouts are evidence that DeSantis made sure to pack enough GOP voters into the newly drawn districts to eliminate any realistic chance for a Democrat win.
The blowout wins in the Democrat races suggest the Governor also made sure to clump blue voters together. That effectively negated the possibility of any competitive races and ensured a 20-8 Republican margin.
You can’t gerrymander a statewide race, of course. But if Democrats were honest, beating DeSantis would always be the longest of shots. Despite all of his controversies, DeSantis remains hugely popular with his base and seems to have drawn considerable approval from independent voters.
But I can’t get over the idea that Demings may be fumbling what should have been a real chance to knock off Rubio. She has focused on two issues — abortion and crime.
Well, those are important. But why hasn’t she pounced on Rick Scott’s 12-point plan to Rescue America? I mean, does America need rescuing by sullen billionaires interested in giving themselves more tax breaks?
Of particular interest to Demings should be Scott’s 6th point, where he states, “All federal legislation sunsets in 5 years. If a law is worth keeping, Congress can pass it again.”
That would include Social Security and Medicare. Can you imagine the debate on renewing those two programs while grandma fights eviction from her nursing home?
Demings isn’t running against Scott, of course, but she should force-feed that to Rubio anyway. But she hasn’t reminded Florida seniors often enough about what Scott has in mind. Rubio would be another vote in that direction.
Rubio, of course, has played the “radical left wants to destroy us” card. His campaign has consisted of calling Demings a LIBERAL. His commercial implying that teachers want to turn elementary students into drag queens is disgusting.
He seems so sincere, doesn’t he?
A campaign for a U.S. Senate seat should be about more than that, but you go with what works. I guess the simpler, the better.
22 comments
Joe Corsin
October 12, 2022 at 8:07 pm
Just so many charlatans, grifters, and the stupid people that they grift off of will vote GOP. Just too many idiots in Florida. It’s a lost cause. Florida has joined the neo nazi, Christian fascist, and anti-government terrorist federation. Good news is that at least Georgia is a blue state for now.
ScienceBLVR
October 12, 2022 at 8:09 pm
So sad but true, Joe. Difficult to understand how the gerrymandering and stacking the deck to win is actually legal, but the Reds have taken that to an all new level. I will say, my parent, a 50 year plus Republican voted Dems all the way down her mail in ballot as a protest against a party she says she is ashamed of and no longer represents her, so there is still some hope out there.
David in Shoreline
October 12, 2022 at 8:56 pm
Governor DeSantis has delivered big time for Florida. It’s no surprise that Florida voters have his back. But it’s more than that. There are millions of Americans that desperately, enthusiastically want DeSantis to run for President, to defeat the Marxist Democrats and save our Republic. Frankly I think he’s the only man who can do it. He’s the only politician anywhere in this country that still inspires me.
Impeach B8den
October 12, 2022 at 10:13 pm
There is no drama Joe. Many of us have been saying for months now that DeSantis was a shoe in for re-election. The Corsin, Offen, Crist comedy show and the rest of their aliases knew this was coming as well, yet they ignored it. 8 November will be a glorious night not only here in Florida but around the US.
Charlie Crist
October 12, 2022 at 10:52 pm
“Impeach Biden” is an alias you clown…and a stupid one as well because it’s TRUMP that’s gonna roast. Nice try though asshole 🍩
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 3:51 am
Ball scratcher Joey corsin.
Impeach Biden
October 13, 2022 at 6:07 am
News flash for Charlie Crist and the rest of his comedy troops. Trump is not on the ballot! I’ll say it again, Trump is not on the ballot! 😜
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 7:46 am
Impeach, chinese bot, Joey corsin is paid to say Trump” as many times as he can. When not Trump, its DeSantis.
He’s a total diversion, distraction from the subject. He purposefully interjects his distractions to take away from the topic. I’ve called him out for weeks. Just a fake newsier.
He is as non substantive as they come.
Charlie Crist
October 13, 2022 at 8:18 am
👆Tom Dumbass…
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 8:49 am
Your balls get crushed every time the FP left reaches out to me. As legend I am the go to.
Wah, no one cares what you say. It’s not substantive. Loser Joey.
Tom
October 12, 2022 at 10:14 pm
Wah, Wah and Wah.
Lots of whining going on.
Chameleon and Dumings are second rate candidates. Not ready for prime time.
The peeps overall enjoy America’s Governor and the best legislator in Congress, Marco!
Enjoy!
Charlie Crist
October 12, 2022 at 10:51 pm
👆 Vote for me…or dumbasses like this guy will continue to pollute the nation with abominable stupidity.
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 4:04 am
Ignorance magnified by a mentally decrepit being. How pathetic are you Joey corsin.
No facts, just TDS. This about the state candidates. Chameleon is so 90’s, such a hypocrite. Dumings is looking for her gun. Both are such lackluster candidates. Really not hard to figure.
Joe Corsin
October 13, 2022 at 8:21 am
You just make sure and tune in to the January the 6th commission report today…you pro crime sociopath.
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 8:45 am
No need.
For Clowns, neophytes like you.
Jan 6, Trump, Jan 6, Trump.
Parrots.
Kinzinger gerrymandered by Dums in Illinois, so much for bi partisanship.
Cheney, she gone, on ash heap. Dems hated the old man.
New GOP majority assured.
Schiff, Raskin, Lofgren will be expelled as these horrid corrupt members of Congress. They gone!
Many, multiple impeachment votes coming for Biden, Harris, others. Enjoy!
Brian Brady
October 13, 2022 at 1:21 am
This article wasn’t TOO biased…
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 6:10 am
Bias is guaranteed with this column.
What’s funny is the liberal bellyachers still complain. Even when they get favorable media. Wah, Wah.
marylou
October 13, 2022 at 7:38 am
Please point out the bias, Tom
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 7:56 am
Mary lou, I don’t have to defend my opinions or views, I will for you this time.
It’s guaranteed with Joe H, he defends the left.
Brian and Impeach replied as well. His whole premise is hostility towards Repub. like DeSantis and Rubio.
If this was the other way around, with Dems as incumbents the media types like Joe would suggest it’s all fine. You have Dems around country running away from debating, as limited as possible.
Chameleon is a awful candidate, as is dum, dum, Demings. In politics the burden is on the challenger, candidate to make the case. They’ve both failed.
Study me, you will learn.
Charlie Crist
October 13, 2022 at 8:20 am
👆 Study this clown. You will see what opinions formed by stupid people consist of.
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 8:36 am
Ball scratcher Joey , enjoy yourself.
Such a degenerate, loser you are.
Tom
October 13, 2022 at 8:52 am
Thanks Mary lou, as the FP legend I get inquiries from the left side of FP.
I’ve ensured the center, right for dialogue. Corsin is a loser neophyte.
Have a nice day.
Comments are closed.