Peter Schorsch
I’ll take “things that aren’t going to happen” for $800.
That’s my reaction to the latest polling numbers from the SimilarPoll2022 Midterm Election Survey, which bafflingly suggests both of Florida’s highest-profile races are toss-ups.
The poll puts U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-I’m Leading in All the Polls) in a dead heat with his challenger U.S. Rep. Val Demings (D-The Odds Aren’t In Your Favor), with Demings actually edging Rubio with 40% support to his 38%.
Similarly, and just as laughably, the poll shows Democrat Charlie Crist leading Gov. Ron DeSantis by about the same margin.
OK, OK. Polls are fickle little things. But this one is either horribly unscientific or the numbers are just bequeathed from somewhere out in La La Land.
Let’s start by breaking down the numbers, independent of any results for actual candidates. The poll shows that 43% of respondents indicate they plan to vote on Election Day, with 24% saying they plan to vote by mail and 13% saying they plan to vote early. Let’s compare those numbers to the last Midterm Election in Florida, in 2018.
Then, nearly 8.3 million people cast a vote in Florida, according to the Division of Elections. Of those, only 36% voted on Election Day, while 32% voted early and 31% voted by mail.
We’re already seeing some major disparities here.
The problem may be quite simple: It’s not specific to Florida. The poll is conducted nationwide, meaning it’s possible not everyone responding lives in or is even all that familiar with Florida elections. Someone living in deep blue California isn’t going to have an impact on which way the political winds blow in Florida; I don’t care how much you weight the results to compensate for demographics.
Now, let’s head back over to the reality peninsula, where about every credible poll shows likely victories for both Rubio and DeSantis.
FiveThirtyEight currently puts DeSantis 7 percentage points ahead of Crist.
The Cook Political Report puts Florida’s Governor’s race in the likely Republican category.
Likewise, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Suffolk University Poll: DeSantis
Mason-Dixon Polling: DeSantis (by double digits I might add)
And it’s not much of a different story for Rubio’s chances. FiveThirtyEight has him nearly 5 percentage points ahead. Cook Political Report, like DeSantis, puts the U.S. Senate Race in the likely Republican column. Sabato’s Crystal Ball? Also likely Republican.
I could go on. And on, and on, and on. But you clearly get the point.
One thing the SimilarPoll gets right is this: The top issue facing voters this cycle is inflation and the cost of living, followed by the economy, issues Republicans dominate, especially when a Democrat occupies the White House. And this is super important so I’m going to say it loud for folks in the back: THOSE WERE THE TOP TWO ISSUES FOR BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES.
Health care, abortion and climate change, issues Democrats are running on nationwide, land in the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots respectively even among Democrats. Republicans put abortion (obviously for different reasons) at No. 5, and swap climate change for immigration.
So let’s evaluate. On what planet do Democrats running statewide, in a state that now has a voter registration advantage for Republicans (who historically turn out in higher volume than Democrats), over-perform in an election when their top issues aren’t even voters’ biggest concerns?
I hope you’ve taken your blood pressure meds because this poll gets the whole saltshaker.
20 comments
Yrral
October 19, 2022 at 8:18 am
The next hurricane will determine Florida political future,what if their is a hurricane on election day
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 8:42 am
Vote for Val Demings
Alan Scott
October 20, 2022 at 8:10 am
Not. She’s going to lose big time along with Crist and all the other Dems. People care vocal about the opposition to the Dems who single handedly ran the economy into the ground in less two years under the mismanagement of “Brandon” and his handlers. They are a miserable disgrace and the animosity is magnified in Florida, a Republican stronghold. Everywhere I go in Florida and elsewhere I see big signs in favor of Trump and literally obscene signs for “Brandon”. Keep dreaming.
Impeach Biden
October 19, 2022 at 9:27 am
Fantasyland is where these two above reside. November 8 😀
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 10:04 am
Yes impeach!
Corsin has been mocked and ridiculed as much as Dumings was last eve. Ultimate compliment by him in using my name. Such a child, thanks as legend lives on. He can’t quote Trump anymore per obummer! Mental breakdown. Abortion is a no where issue for Dumings and Dummycrats.
Rubio clearly was more engaged on all issues, and topics. World class senator, highlighting the doubling of child tax credit for all Floridians, Americans masterful!
Dumings collapsed over non issue of big lie, no voter suppression. Not one law passed by her. When you have to revert to the naming of a building, it’s desperation.
It’s ok, I doubt she will show up with chameleon and POTUS on 11-1, but if she does, all three can shove ice cream up their pie holes! Fng POTUS giving America the finger is the ultimate slap, slap back comes on 11-8.
Mary lou, Corsin, idiot Elliot, Morton, mis believer, wanda, Frankie, peter h, and ocean Joe can all take turns as well with them. FP can cover it. Dum Dem clown show carries on. LMAO.
Joe Corsin
October 19, 2022 at 10:09 am
Mocked and ridiculed like tropical 2 ocean windcane? And all of your other pilled out drunken antics?
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 11:15 am
Typical meaningless, moronic reply!
Joe Corsin
October 19, 2022 at 11:33 am
Tom got an adequate dose of antipsychotics in him this morning. He was able to compose that last post without grammar and punctuation error. Now if we can just get his intellectual disabilities squared away.
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Scum bag, you are a chinese troll.
Trump, Jan 6, comm hearings.
You have nothing, clueless.
Obummer told you to shut up.
You are just a cheap street walker with mommy.
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Scum bag, you are a chinese troll.
Trump, Jan 6, comm hearings.
You have nothing, clueless.
Obummer told you to shut up.
You are just a cheap street walker with mommy.
Joe Corsin
October 19, 2022 at 12:38 pm
I’m not Chinese. You are almost never right about anything.
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 12:44 pm
Facts are funny things for Dumtards. For a chinese Manchurian troll such as yourself, it’s mind exploding.
You provide nothing, except Trump hate. See, Obummer agrees with us, shut the hell up. LMAO
Hope
October 19, 2022 at 10:52 am
It is refreshing to read the truth. Thank you Peter!
Charles
October 19, 2022 at 1:19 pm
Curious Tom,
Why do you love ❤️ Demmings so much.
Do you know that she had a fully automatic rifle stolen out of her Police Car at her home.
She didn’t even get a slap on the wrist from that escapade, why you ask? Because she was the Police Chief – betting her subordinates would have been raked over the coals.
So take your liberal stance and energy and focus on what a disaster your Democratic Party Leadership has created with our economy, illegal immigration, energy cost, mortgage rates and the of affordable cost of housing.
Your party of choice has helped other countries instead of helping our own country.
Now what is the excuse you want to give us for the past two years of failures from the current liberal in charge administration?
Tom
October 19, 2022 at 2:00 pm
You obviously can’t read charges, peruse 4th from top.
My name is clearly identified with Sen Rubio, and America’s Gov.
I outlined above how Rubio won. I’ve also outline multiple times how she lost her revolver.
You are alias corsin or ignorant or both, your problem not mine. Corsin is a chinese Manchurian troll. He’s faked my name, as he has nothing to offer, on anything. Just Trump, Jan 6, committee hearings.
Read more accurately, and text less.
Adam
October 19, 2022 at 5:55 pm
Typical dem, vote Val, because I told you too!
ConcernedCitizen
October 20, 2022 at 4:07 pm
Fantasy land is where voters who vote for Marco Rubio live.
Rubio supports the Trump-McConnell plan to slash Social Security and Medicare(that is there secret plan if they get control of Congress, the Senate and the WH again).
Widely available historical economic analysis proves the the US economy does better when Dems are in charge.
Republican is another word for Recession: Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2 all lead directly to Recessions.
Clinton, Obama-Biden and Biden all bailed the US Economy out of severe Recessions caused by FAILED REPUBLICAN ECONOMIC POLICIES.
Heyfloriduh
October 21, 2022 at 12:48 pm
I guess Floridumb is going to continue to be the laughing stock of our great country. Seniors and Cuban refugees, perfect recipe for stupid soup.
OxymoronCuban
October 21, 2022 at 10:59 pm
Cubans are a joke. They get here through a special clause and then turnaround and say no one else can come because they feel this is their land now, what a crock of poo.
stu
October 25, 2022 at 4:36 pm
republicans have become violent liars. they want putin to win the war. they want to take away peoples rights. they want to take away medicare and social security. supposed to be land of the free. ha ha, its only free if your a white christian straight male. what a joke this country has become. so sad.
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