Bob Sparks: Gwen Graham must overcome Steve Southerland and Barack Obama

Few races for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives fall into the competitive category, but Florida has one of the top 10 most watched campaigns in the country.

Democrat Gwen Graham’s challenge to Republican Rep. Steve Southerland for the Congressional District 2 seat is a political scientist’s dream.

The numbers for District 2 paint a picture of what should be fertile ground for Democrats. Registered Democrats woefully outnumber registered Republicans in the district’s 14 counties of the Big Bend and Eastern Panhandle.

As of Aug. 31, District 2 had 230,957 registered Democrats and 151,968 registered Republicans. That’s three Democrats for every two Republicans. There are also 67,000 registered voters unaffiliated with any party.

It goes beyond the numbers. Graham is well funded and brings instant name recognition since she’s the daughter of former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham.

Recent finance reports reveal she has raised $2.5 million; $500,000 more than Southerland. She receives additional support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House Majority PAC and advocacy groups.

Pundits call it a toss-up, but with all of these forces aligned against Southerland, how is the race close?  History and the makeup of District 2 provide the answer.

Those subscribing to the theory the Reagan (conservative) Democrats of the 1980s no longer exist because they became Republicans should cancel their subscription. Thousands of these conservatives still live and vote in North Florida.

In 2010, Southerland defeated incumbent Allen Boyd by 31,000 votes or 54 to 41 percent. At that time, District 2 had 247,000 Republicans and 267,000 Democrats.

Boyd won Leon County (Tallahassee) and neighboring Gadsden County by 26,000 votes combined, but Southerland won his home county of Bay (Panama City) by 28,000. He also captured every other county in the district except Jefferson, which he lost by 100 votes.

The significant issue was Boyd’s support of Obamacare. It should prove to be a factor this year with polls showing even fewer approving of the health care law in 2014 than four years ago.

Southerland ran for re-election in 2012 in the new district that resulted from reapportionment. He went from a 20,000 GOP registration deficit to the current make-up of 80,000 fewer Republicans.

He defeated State Sen. Al Lawson by 18,000 votes by overcoming large deficits in Leon and Gadsden counties with larger majorities in Bay County. Like 2010, he won 11 of the 14 counties.

Graham has more money and name recognition than Lawson had in 2012, but Southerland has many things going for him. Ginning up turnout for Democrats in any non-presidential election years is more difficult than for Republicans. Recent polls also reveal a Republican voter intensity advantage.

Southerland’s deficit in fund raising is covered by help from the National Republican Congressional Committee and the National Rifle Association. I risk sending liberals into convulsions by reporting Southerland is also backed by the dreaded Koch Brothers through their Americans for Prosperity group.

The avalanche of ads run by the candidates or groups supporting them cover the government shutdown, Obamacare, linkage to Nancy Pelosi, having “North Florida values,” veterans and violence against women, to name a few.

Like Boyd four years ago, Graham must overcome President Barack Obama’s unpopularity and Obamacare. It is a tall order.

Last week Obama said he was not on the ballot, “but make no mistake, (his) policies are on the ballot — every single one of them.” Graham and Democrats in competitive races must have cringed.

Obama’s adviser David Axelrod said Obama’s words were “a mistake.” The comments will soon appear in Republican ads around the country with Southerland or surrogates likely to join the party. October is not the time for unforced errors.

The President and his policies, both foreign and domestic, have inflicted significant damage on the Democrat brand. Within District 2, his administration’s foibles with veterans in a veteran-laden district help put Graham at risk.

Persuadable voters have no reason to dislike either candidate. The ads have at times been hard hitting, but not over the top.

Some of the Democrats who voted twice for Southerland may well come home to support Graham, but Republican intensity can also bring some voters who stayed home in 2012 back to the polls this year.

Democrats in Tallahassee want this one almost as badly as defeating Gov. Rick Scott. They will need to turn out in large numbers to succeed.

In the end, the prediction here is a narrow victory for Southerland, but it has the chance to be larger. The desire for conservatives in a conservative district to stop this President’s agenda may be greater under the surface than many of us realize.

Southerland will tap into that.

Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.