Phil Ammann
Jeb Bush will take his prospective 2016 presidential candidacy to the Hawkeye State next month, with a speech at the Iowa Ag Summit on March 7 in Des Moines.
There was a great deal of speculation over whether the center-right former Florida governor would avoid Iowa altogether, bypassing a group of voters that lean distinctively anti-establishment, writes Jennifer Jacobs of The Des Moines Register.
Bush will join Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker – who led in a recent Iowa Poll – as well as former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and colorful tycoon Donald Trump. Iowa agribusiness magnate Bruce Rastetter, a prominent state Republican, hosts the newly formed event.
To date, Bush is the only Republican in the current field of those considering a White House run that has not yet visited Iowa, a key early caucus state.
One possible concern is that the Iowa Poll placed Bush fifth on the list of caucus goers’ preferred GOP presidential hopefuls.
Walker, the Republican favorite in Iowa, is not standing still in these early stages – directly challenging Bush in the race for donors.
The Wisconsin governor has courted many of Mitt Romney donors after the 2012 GOP candidate withdrew from the presidential race, as proof he can compete with Bush as an A-list candidate.
James Hohmann and Kenneth Vogel of POLITICO report that Walker is hosting a March fundraising swing through Florida, Bush’s home base, and has added a leading Washington fundraiser to his political team.
With the first caucuses about a year away, however, much of the big money is staying out of the race – for now.
A number of Walker’s past donors are reluctant to commit to his 2016 aspirations, choosing to hold back even as they offer support, at least vocally.
“We’re in the early stages,” New York financier Roger Hertog told POLITICO recently, “We’re not even out of the first inning. There’s no reason to do rankings and to try to draw Las Vegas odds.”
Hertog, who previously contributed $120,000 to Walker, said he will “probably support a number of people” before backing a particular Republican, once the race shapes up. “There are a number of very high quality candidates, and Gov. Walker is one,” he added.
Bush supporters believe Walker will struggle against the solid financial network they are developing. With more than 60 fundraising events scheduled in upcoming months, Bush aims to post a first-quarter haul that will remove any doubts that he is the candidate to beat.
Walker allies, on the other hand, argue he will have more than enough money to be competitive, even if overshadowed by Bush’s take.
What matters is that they amass enough money to remain viable in the early-voting states — such as Iowa – until March of 2016.
A few crucial victories, they say, and the money will follow.
One Walker consultant compared Bush to former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, who collected a pile of money in the 2008 race, but failed to gain traction with the Republican grassroots.
“If you can’t place well in the first four states,” a Walker adviser told POLITICO, “it doesn’t matter how much cash you have.”
Meanwhile, Bush will also have his work cut out for him in Iowa voters, and 11 months after March 7 for him to become familiar to caucus goers. That gives time for Bush to strike out on his own – independent of his family connections – and show the people of Iowa a distinct vision for the country’s future.
