A.G. Gancarski
In the wake of stories casting doubt on the strategy and the resources of Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign, odds that he will become the GOP nominee next year continue to lengthen.
As of this posting, DeSantis’ odds have plummeted to 11% on the Election Betting Odds site, which aggregates investor markets from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt and Polymarket.
Much of the recent decline came over the weekend. The Governor’s odds were a healthier 14% as recently as Saturday, July 15.
As DeSantis declines, former President Donald Trump’s odds continue to strengthen. He’s now at 69%, obviously in a prohibitive lead in the eyes of those investing in these Presidential Primary markets.
DeSantis has a little more than a 6-point lead over author and businessman Vivek G. Ramaswamy, who is now at 4.9% overall. Trump continues to speculate Ramaswamy will overtake DeSantis in polls, and it seems a similar momentum may be prevailing among those playing these platforms.
Other names are further back: South Carolina’s Tim Scott and Nikki Haley are both above 2%; Chris Christie and Tucker Carlson are above 1%. Others are below 1%, including two non-candidates from Florida: Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott.
There is variance among the platforms aggregated here.
DeSantis is above 11% on the Smarkets platform, where he is holding at 12.82%, far below Trump’s 70%+ and still above Ramaswamy (4.17%).
On the PredictIt platform, a DeSantis ‘Yes’ share costs 18 cents currently, with a Trump ‘Yes’ at 60 cents and Ramaswamy at 11 cents.
A DeSantis ‘Yes’ share is at 16 cents on Polymarkets, meanwhile, with Ramaswamy at 11 cents and Trump at 65 cents.
On Betfair, DeSantis has 8.2:1 odds to win, against 1:11 odds to lose in the Primary race.
8 comments
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July 17, 2023 at 1:44 pm
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Dont Say FLA
July 17, 2023 at 1:46 pm
And Rhonda’s 11% is still overvalued by about tenfold.
Short sell Ron
July 17, 2023 at 1:48 pm
If you have any stock in Ron’s campaign, strong advise on short sell. Emphasis on short.
My Take
July 17, 2023 at 2:50 pm
The real bet is on Trump’s keeling.
DeSSantis’s one real hope.
Michael K
July 17, 2023 at 4:36 pm
News Flash: America does not want to become Florida, which has become Alabama and Mississippi.
There is nothing to like about the governor who uses his family as props, children as pawns, teachers as targets, women as objects to control, while degrading LGBTQ and people of color with bigotry and hate. Nope, this little bully is appalling to all but a slim slice of MAGAts who yearn for a new era of Jim Crow.
Ron showed us who he is – no shift in message will hide the ugly truth.
My Take
July 17, 2023 at 6:07 pm
Hear Hear!
Keisha
July 18, 2023 at 7:44 am
I can’t wait for him to get out of politics and to be destroyed by Trump – the man isn’t even trying to hide his affinity for White Supremacy any more. Best we can hope for is Trump wins the primaries, then looses the election.
Next Poll
July 18, 2023 at 8:14 am
The next poll should officially start the Rhonda Countdown at T-Minus 10. C’monnnnn, next poll. Anybody got a 10? Sonny Perdue, maybe?
Comments are closed.