Hypothetical 2024 race between Ron DeSantis, Gavin Newsom too close to call
Gavin Newsom, Ron DeSantis. Image via AP.

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Just one percentage point separates the two Governors if they were their parties' nominees for President next year.

While California’s Governor says he’s not running for President and Florida’s Governor has a long way to go to get the Republican nomination, new polling shows that if they did get their parties’ nominations, the popular vote would be close.

In a YouGov survey of 1,000 U.S. citizens conducted Nov. 20-27, Ron DeSantis has a marginal lead over Gavin Newsom, with 32% saying they’d back the Florida Republican and 31% saying they’d support the California Democrat.

Party splits are somewhat more favorable for DeSantis than for Newsom, with 73% of Republicans saying they’d back the Floridian, versus 64% of Democrats opting for Newsom. Just 3% would cross over to vote for the other party’s nominee in this hypothetical, while independent voters split, with 23% support for both DeSantis and Newsom.

Regionally, the advantage seems to be with Newsom, who carries all geographic regions of the county except for the South, where DeSantis enjoys a 37% to 27% advantage. Newsom leads 40% to 27% in the West, along with a one-point lead in the Northeast and a two-point advantage in the Midwest.

The Newsom-DeSantis dynamic has a special salience this week given the upcoming debate Thursday night at 9 p.m. on Fox News, and it’s possible that face off on Sean Hannity’s show could change minds, given that 35% of those polled said they “definitely” or “probably will” watch the telecast.

Breaking down that data further, the event appears to be a net advantage for DeSantis, as 46% of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 say they will watch, against just 35% of Joe Biden supporters in the last election. This potentially gives DeSantis a unique opportunity to reach voters in the former President’s camp historically.

Also to DeSantis’ advantage, 39% of senior citizens polled say they will watch him debate Newsom, along with 50% of those who claim they make $100,000 or more per year.

The pollsters also evaluated perceptions of California and Florida, and the Sunshine State prevailed in one key metric, with 40% of respondents saying they’d rather live in Florida, versus 37% who would prefer living in the Golden State.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • Biscuit

    November 28, 2023 at 12:25 pm

    NewsPoop out of America: Having determined there were not enough polls taking place regarding the race for the Presidency, YouGov created a make-believe poll of the California Governor versus the Governor of Florida. The results were pooplematic, and will have to be picked up later.

  • Who killed Peter Antonacci?

    November 28, 2023 at 12:48 pm

    But did Gavin Newsom have somebody die in his office, didn’t care enough to notice, then cover it all up? 🧐

    • JD

      November 28, 2023 at 1:15 pm

      Why is nobody reporting all of this yet?

      It feels like there’s something shading that went down there.

      I suspect people know, but probably aren’t allowed to say.

      Start banging on the counters for these answers.

      • MH/Duuuval

        November 28, 2023 at 9:31 pm

        The news has been out there but not sure what to make of it. A widow maker heart attack is supposed to be quick and Dee’s inner circle — like all henchmen everywhere — was focussed on their skullduggery. I was impressed that law enforcement, when it arrived, had some basic training in what to do.

  • Earl Pitts "America's-Go-To-Political--Guru" American

    November 28, 2023 at 1:06 pm

    Good Afternoon America,
    What you were looking at in the article above is the brains behind the entire failed 8iden admin., [8arak O.], sending up his initial test balloon into the “Political atmosphere to see if any Lefty’s would be opposed to Newsome.
    Seriously America 8arak could have just squeezed out a little coin and I, Earl Pitts American, would have told him that he could run the prince of darkness, good ‘Ole devil with horns himself, slap a “D” by his name on the ballot and y’all 💩 4 🧠’s Lefty’s would vote for him.
    Why are some of y’all so cheap?

      • Earl Pitts American

        November 29, 2023 at 9:17 am

        Good Morn’ Ting Pedo,
        “I’m rubber, you’re glue, everything you say bounces off me, and sticks to you”.

        • rick whitaker

          November 29, 2023 at 9:35 am

          what a childish comment from a childish person, earl give it up, you’re embarrassing your childish self

  • PeterH

    November 28, 2023 at 1:07 pm

    Ron DeSantis will never win a National Election. His political career is finished!

    • Impeach Biden

      November 28, 2023 at 1:24 pm

      Well since you are making predictions, can you give me the winning lottery numbers. The only person or persons in Florida whose political career is done are Nikki Fried and Rebekah Jones.

      • rick whitaker

        November 29, 2023 at 9:42 am

        impeach biden, you made a prediction about dems you don’t like, so if you are right, i need to get the lottery numbers from you. by the way, desantis is toast.

  • MH/Duuuval

    November 28, 2023 at 1:41 pm

    DEBATE QUESTION: Why the disparity in the number of incarcerated
    CA = 96,000 state prison inmates (LA Times wire); pop. = 39m (per Census Bureau est.)

    FL = 81,000+ state prison inmates (Levin college of law, UF, 2023); pop. = 22.4m (per Census)

  • My Take

    November 28, 2023 at 10:47 pm

    Looks mighty bad for DeSScamus.
    Newsom who has not been campaigning at all is equal to DeSScamus who has been intemsively campaigning for half a year.

  • My Take

    November 29, 2023 at 7:54 pm

    So wìll DeSSantis do miserably, or will he somehow rise to mediocre?

  • MH/Duuuval

    November 29, 2023 at 9:15 pm

    One additional point for discussion is how asylum seekers are dealt with in the two states?

  • My Take

    November 30, 2023 at 3:17 am

    This may very well position Newsom if Biden for some reason doesn’t continue to run.

Comments are closed.


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