Janelle Irwin Taylor
A new poll taken after President Joe Biden announced that he was suspending his re-election campaign finds Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a dead heat for the November election, with Harris having a slight edge.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll taken Aug. 22-23 shows Harris as the choice of 44% of respondents, compared to 42% for Trump. Under that scenario, 5% of respondents favored some other candidate while 4% said they wouldn’t vote.
Harris’ standing among voters was unchanged from a previous survey from the same pollsters, taken July 16 before Biden dropped out. There she was tied at 44% with Trump in a hypothetical matchup, which was still better than Biden, who garnered just 41% support to Trump’s 43%.
It’s worth noting that the poll was taken among the general population, meaning not all respondents were registered voters. Of the 1,241 responses, 1,018 were registered voters. The poll did not include likely voters.
Interestingly, the poll found that when considering a three-person race, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also at the top of the ballot, Harris’ lead improves, at 42% support for her, 38% for Trump and 8% for Kennedy.
Harris has also enjoyed a boost in popularity since Biden bowed out of the presidential race, climbing from a 39% favorability rating before Biden’s announcement to 44% after. The share of Americans who view her unfavorably was statistically unchanged, but also saw an improvement, from 53% to 50%.
Trump similarly was unchanged in the eyes of Americans, with a 41% favorability rating in both the pre-and post-Biden announcement polls. His unfavorability rating was also unchanged, at 55%.
But Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, has enjoyed a boost among Americans, improving from 44% of Americans who didn’t know who he was to 26%. His favorability climbed from 30% to 32%, but Vance also saw his unfavorables increase from 30% to 39%.
The poll also offers some insight into the Harris campaign’s potential pick for Vice President, with favorability considered among some common names discussed as possible contenders.
Among registered voters, Harris had the highest favorability rating, at 48%, followed by Trump at 42%, Biden at 40% and Vance at 37%.
The poll also queried Americans about Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, independent U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, listed in order of their favorability among registered voters.
Buttigieg leads the pack with a 37% favorability, but he’s not considered a top contender for the VP slot. Sources have told ABC News that Shapiro and Kelly are the leading candidates to be Harris’ No. 2. Kelly’s favorability among registered voters in the poll sits at just 27%, while Shapiro’s is at 23%.
Good news for Kelly continues on this metric when looking at cross-party support. There, he has the highest favorability among Republicans of every Democrat listed, at 11%. That’s an important metric as the Harris campaign moves forward with courting conservative voters who oppose Trump. But Shapiro isn’t far behind, at 8%, and is tied with Buttigieg.
Newsom’s favorability among registered voters is at 32%, putting him near the top of this list. But it’s unlikely Harris would choose Newsom because they live in the same state, which would cause issues as the President and Vice President cannot reside in the same state and because California is already an easy win for Democrats.
Whitmer polls just below Newsom, at 30%, but she also isn’t likely to land on Harris’ VP short list because strategy holds that the ballot should be demographically balanced. Kelly and Shapiro are both strategic choices for the VP spot because they lead swing states.
Beshear is also on the list, but came in at just 20% favorability. He also leads a red state and, while Beshear has successfully won his state in two consecutive cycles, both of which Trump also won his state, there isn’t necessarily strong evidence that his presence on the ticket could deliver ruby red Kentucky for Democrats.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, who has also been mentioned as a possible VP pick, was not included in the poll.
The poll has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
3 comments
Demo Comedy Show
July 23, 2024 at 5:31 pm
Just like the press protecting, hiding, and lying for Joe. They now turn to promote, elevate and declare an awful VP as the second coming. Hilarious
Leonard
July 23, 2024 at 5:35 pm
The only thing worse than reporting on a useless nationwide Presidential poll of registered voters—is reporting on a poll of the GENERAL POPULATION rather than likely voters. This is a “wishful thinking poll” at best. Presidential elections are decided state-by-state and Trump is currently polling ahead of Harris in every swing state. Of course…it is July…there is a LOT of ball still to be played.
Elvis [FKA Earl] Pitts American
July 23, 2024 at 6:24 pm
Good evening Sage Patriots,
RELAX YOUR POLITICAL SPHINCTERS:
This “Fake Poll” hasent even had time for “ANY” Real Polling Business to have “Actually” conducted such a poll.
Give it a couple of weeks for “Legit Polling” to take place and The Dook 4 Brains Left will trot out another Looser Candidate.
I know 100% of you Right Minded Sage Patriots are in agreement with me on this.
While A Huge Percentage of our “Lesser Minded Leftys” think its true that the left will actually run Kamalla all of us Right Minded Sage Patriots know it was just the Left grabbing at straws as they were falling down on their faces ….. we know they wont continue with Kamalla after the Real Polling comes out.
IN CLOSING:
Let your hearts Not Be Troubled AND Relax Your Sphincters Sage Patriots,
Elvis