Jacob Ogles
New polling shows a tight race in House District 72, with Bill Conerly having a narrow advantage over Alyssa Gay in the Republican Primary.
M3 Strategies, an independent firm expanding into the Florida market, polled Republican voters who already voted early in the Aug. 20 Republican Primary. It found 30% supported Conerly, a Kimley-Horn shareholder, and 28% picked Gay, a communications firm founder. About 25% voted for School Board member Rich Tatem and 18% backed lawyer Richard Green.
The poll of only early voters was billed as “exit polling,” focused only on the support of voters whose decision has been made.
Factoring in results of a poll of likely Republican Primary voters conducted at the end of July, M3 gives Conerly the best chance of winning the GOP nomination.
“Conerly has the highest probability of winning, with a 40% chance compared to a 29% probability for Gay, 23% for Tatem, and 8% for Green,” reads a polling memo on the race.
M3 Strategies partner Matthew Podgorski said his firm has no relationship to any campaign and polled the competitive race as it seeks to enter the Florida market.
His polling weeks out from the election showed many voters still in flux at that point. As of July 31, about 51% of voters said they were still undecided.
Campaign reports show Conerly has spent the most on the race. His campaign reported more than $169,000 in expenditures through Aug. 15. Gay, by comparison, spent about $52,000. Tatem spent more than $40,000. Green spent upward of $18,000, while his committee, Friends of Richard Green, spent another $17,000.
Of note, Conerly runs a political committee, Engineering a Conservative Florida, which has raised more than $52,000 and spent next to nothing this election through Aug. 15, suggesting he still has some firing power to unleash.
The winner of the Republican Primary will face Democrat Lesa Miller in November.
Polling Memorandum – Florida HD72 Projection – August 18 2024[13] by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
