Ryan Nicol
A new survey has Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over Republican Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic National Convention.
The poll from the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) has Harris at 47% support nationally among registered voters, with Trump at 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%.
“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” said Luzmarina Garcia, assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”
The FAU survey shows 73% of Black voters backing Harris, as well as 51% of Hispanic voters. White voters without a college degree prefer Trump (59%), as do White voters with a degree (51%).
The poll lines up with the FiveThirtyEight polling average of the race, which has Harris at 47.2% and Trump at 43.6%. The RealClearPolitics average, meanwhile, gives Harris just a 1.5-point advantage nationwide.
Nevertheless, momentum is clearly moving Harris’ way. Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU, said that shift is partly driven by independents moving away from Trump. The FAU survey found 48% of independents support Harris, while only 35% back Trump. That’s a marked shift from July, when early polling of Harris’ candidate showed her leading Trump 45% to 43% among independents.
“Trump is losing support from independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched,” Kim said. “If this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.”
FAU’s PolCom Lab also found Democrats with a slight edge on the General Election ballot, earning 46% to Republicans’ 44%. While the polling memo said “a precise margin of error cannot be calculated due to the mixed methodology,” the memo estimated a margin of error of around 3.2 percentage points.
“The generic ballot illustrates just how closely divided the nation continues to be,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “It suggests that the current default is for close and tightly contested elections.”
Pollsters sampled 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23-25.
The survey also looked at voters’ feelings about democracy as a whole, finding 46% are “satisfied with how democracy works in the U.S.,” with 38% dissatisfied. Those results also showed a significant party split, with 64% satisfied and only 33% of Republicans satisfied.
While 81% of voters 50 or older believe democracy is the ideal form of government, only 65% of voters under 50 agree.
“The partisan and age splits on America’s democratic quality are concerning,” Kim said. “A substantial portion of voters (38%) are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, which could have negative implications for the future of our democracy.”
28 comments
Yrral
August 27, 2024 at 12:46 pm
So Ella Puede
Yrral
August 27, 2024 at 12:46 pm
Si Ella Puede
Yrral
August 27, 2024 at 12:58 pm
Trump has deep seeded psychological paranoia,related to him , being emotional abandoned by his mother and abuse by his father Google Trump Relationship With His Mother
Dont Say FLA
August 27, 2024 at 5:25 pm
Turnip Truck’s wife is so old I keep thinking she’s his mother, but maybe it’s really because he identifies as a toddler.
Dont Say FLA
August 27, 2024 at 1:02 pm
Harris would have a 95 point lead over Turnip J Truck if Ronald Reagan hadn’t ended the Fairness Doctrine allowing for nonsense such as NoxFews and MewsNax and, to be fair, CNN and MSNBC but they have yet to pay out a billion dollars for elections lies have they
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 1:39 pm
Hilarious. MSNBC, CNN and many many others were all in on the Joe Biden is fine coverup. Of course FOX was talking about his cognitive decline. Not your phony news sources however. Even Kammy said he was alert, engaged and sharp. You gonna vote that moron for president?
Dont Say FLA
August 27, 2024 at 5:20 pm
Am I going to vote for that moron? Turnip J Truck? No. Never have. Never will. Unless I’m on a jury for one of his many indictments.
Michael
August 27, 2024 at 1:12 pm
While FAU has not yet conducted enough polls historically to have an established credential as a polling organization, this will undoubtedly be enough to cause Trump to accuse FAU of being some form of non-smart, cheating-prone and facially ugly being.
However, despite the magnitude of this indicated swing to Harris, the significance of that pales in comparison to this revelation…. ‘While 81% of voters 50 or older believe democracy is the ideal form of government, only 65% of voters under 50 agree.’
Ok, I count around 20 posters to this site. Probability above suggests 2 or 3 of you posting here belong to the non-democracy governance camp. 8th grade civics class tells us your other choices are..socialism, communism, a monarchy, an oligarchy, and an autocracy. I would be raptured by your discussion of your alternate preference.
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 3:30 pm
If my ex-local newspaper publishes this poll, then I will call it another rigged poll like all of the ones they have published over the years in their attempt to influence state and national elections. No wonder they are going broke.
ScienceBLVR
August 27, 2024 at 3:13 pm
Moron for president hmmm sounds more like someone who posts under many names trying desperately to seem mature and cognizant but reveals himself/herself to have the impulse control and creativity level of a prepubescent child. Sounds like Peachy/Day #
The word moron was an official term in the early 1900s, used to describe a person of low intelligence — specifically, an “adult with a mental age between eight and twelve.” It became a popular insult in the 1920s, and gradually stopped being used as a medical term.
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Sounds like a perfect description of Kammy. She won’t face the tough questions and you and the media are fine with it. She trying to be Obama 2.0. She simply doesn’t have it with regards to thinking and speaking without visual aids.
Dont Say FLA
August 27, 2024 at 5:23 pm
Given the candidate fielded by the MAGA part, yeah, everybody’s fine with anything and everything VP Harris does or does not does.
With the alternative being Turnip J Truck, once again, VP Harris gets every sane voter’s vote unless they stay home and don’t vote.
Ocean Joe
August 29, 2024 at 9:53 am
Science, your comment described every single poster on here except for Mr. Palmer.
If Ed didn’t show up, how would everybody vent their spleens?
We live in a Republican hellhole, and I say that having been here awhile and remembering governors and senators who we used to call “progressive” because they broke from the Dixiecrat types and cared about the environment. Since Jeb! it’s all about money and concrete.
Cindy
August 27, 2024 at 5:27 pm
Saying people with more advantages choose pam, and the lesser where picked to blue-collar so they pick trump because of the inequity that faces them.
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 8:07 pm
So now we learn Kammy wants to build a border wall. Who is Kammy? What does she really believe? She is the classic do and say whatever it takes to win. Will the real Kammy Harris please stand up?
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 8:28 pm
Tax on Tips? Why wait Kammy? Push it through now. You are #2 in the White House. Or is this simply another “do and say anything” to get in the big house? Hilarious
Dont Say FLA
August 27, 2024 at 8:48 pm
Your side’s smell of fear turned realization turned desperation is what’s hilarious. Dump JD Vance and get the real Sarah Palin. That’ll fix it.
Day 36
August 27, 2024 at 9:10 pm
Has your side considered dumping “No Balls Walz”? Or are you going to equip him with Pelosi Pom Poms and a skirt?
Michael K
August 27, 2024 at 11:52 pm
Poor thing hasn’t realized that neither Biden or Pelosi is on the ballot, and all she has are puerile names.
rick whitaker
August 28, 2024 at 11:35 am
DAY 36, do you howler monkeys ever quit howling out of fear and ignorance. the rest of us are trying to focus, quit howling so much dude or dudette.
Ocean Joe
August 29, 2024 at 9:36 am
Good point about the fear. Saw it when Vance stated ‘Kamala can go to hell’ over remarks SHE HAS NEVER MADE allegedly about Trump’s visit to Arlington. Luckily it wasn’t raining so his hair getting wet wasn’t an issue.
They are terrified. And not helping is the fact they have MAGA election denier loyalists dragging them all down: Kari Lake and Mark Robinson are both as nutty as Trump.
Hey, Impeach, to paraphrase your hero little rich kid Tucker Carlson, WHERE DOES JOHN MCCAIN GO TO GET HIS APOLOGY? At what point does the disgraceful McCarthy-like behavior become too much for all you less than Magas to help end this. Dont forget the common thread of McCarthy and Trump: the weasel Roy Cohn.
Seriously?
August 27, 2024 at 11:37 pm
You do realize, of course, that Congress is not meeting at the moment and VPs, let alone Presidents, cannot do anything on taxes without Congress. And it’s under split control. Perhaps you’re one of those who don’t think democracy is the best form of government with phrasing like “push it through now.” Retake 7th grade civics!
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 5:57 am
I do understand how the government works. Of course you miss my point. Again if this is such a great idea from Kammy, where has she been for the last 3.5 years? That’s right solving the Southern Border issue. Speaking of 7th grade, she gets an “F” on that.
rick whitaker
August 28, 2024 at 11:39 am
DAY 37, no you definitely don’t know how government works. if you did, you wouldn’t make so many uninformed comments on the issue.
Ocean Joe
August 29, 2024 at 9:40 am
Dont be unfair. Impeach knows perfectly well how government works. It’s Trump who has no clue other than bribing politicians (which has worked for him), and has no basic knowledge of American history. He is a genius at PR, but his lack of historical insight makes him a transactional isolationist who operates at the micro level – interpersonal, rather than the macro level. He is, as our great senator Marco Rubio has said: “dangerously unprepared to be president” and has already proven it.
Ocean Joe
August 29, 2024 at 9:42 am
In other words, if a dictator flatters him, and they all know how to do it now, the actions they take as national leaders is irrelevant to him. He is floundering. Elon Musk and the religious right will pull his strings when he’s not cheating at golf or on his wife.
Andrew Finn
August 28, 2024 at 10:21 pm
While winning the popular vote is really nice, as history shows, it’s winning the electoral college vote is what it’s all about.
Ocean Joe
August 29, 2024 at 9:44 am
Looks like he’s going to have trouble with that too. You guys better crank up the scare tactics, find Willie Horton’s grandson, etc.
Hurry up, it smells like the country wants to move on.
Comments are closed.