FAU poll shows Kamala Harris with edge in nationwide popular vote over Donald Trump

A new survey has Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with a 4-point lead over Republican Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic National Convention.

The poll from the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) has Harris at 47% support nationally among registered voters, with Trump at 43%. Among likely voters, Harris leads 49% to 45%.

“Since her elevation to the top of the ticket, Vice President Harris has effectively appealed to women voters, and the gender gap has become more pronounced,” said Luzmarina Garcia, assistant professor of political science at FAU. “Harris has also reestablished the Democratic Party’s advantage with minority voters.”

The FAU survey shows 73% of Black voters backing Harris, as well as 51% of Hispanic voters. White voters without a college degree prefer Trump (59%), as do White voters with a degree (51%).

The poll lines up with the FiveThirtyEight polling average of the race, which has Harris at 47.2% and Trump at 43.6%. The RealClearPolitics average, meanwhile, gives Harris just a 1.5-point advantage nationwide.

Nevertheless, momentum is clearly moving Harris’ way. Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU, said that shift is partly driven by independents moving away from Trump. The FAU survey found 48% of independents support Harris, while only 35% back Trump. That’s a marked shift from July, when early polling of Harris’ candidate showed her leading Trump 45% to 43% among independents.

“Trump is losing support from independents compared to July, which could be a result of the Democratic Party convention and remains to be watched,” Kim said. “If this pattern persists, it will be difficult for Trump to maintain an advantage in the election.”

FAU’s PolCom Lab also found Democrats with a slight edge on the General Election ballot, earning 46% to Republicans’ 44%. While the polling memo said “a precise margin of error cannot be calculated due to the mixed methodology,” the memo estimated a margin of error of around 3.2 percentage points.

“The generic ballot illustrates just how closely divided the nation continues to be,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab. “It suggests that the current default is for close and tightly contested elections.”

Pollsters sampled 929 registered U.S. voters from Aug. 23-25.

The survey also looked at voters’ feelings about democracy as a whole, finding 46% are “satisfied with how democracy works in the U.S.,” with 38% dissatisfied. Those results also showed a significant party split, with 64% satisfied and only 33% of Republicans satisfied.

While 81% of voters 50 or older believe democracy is the ideal form of government, only 65% of voters under 50 agree.

“The partisan and age splits on America’s democratic quality are concerning,” Kim said. “A substantial portion of voters (38%) are either very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied, which could have negative implications for the future of our democracy.”