Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Fence-sitters are becoming an endangered species, according to the latest polling from the Economist/YouGov.
The survey, conducted Aug. 25-27, found Vice President Kamala Harris with an inside-the-margins lead over former President Donald Trump, 47%-45%.
The two-point separation is par for the course as of late. Harris also led by two in her debut as the top-of-ticket Dem in the Economist’s poll, which they release weekly. Her lead briefly hit 3%, but that could hardly be described as a wobble.
The number of undecided and third-party voters has changed over the past few weeks. Early this month, 12% of respondents said they weren’t sure or were going with one of the also-rans.
Now, just 5% are on the fence with the remaining 3% divvied up among the tomato cans — and that’ll likely dip a point or two now that RFK Jr. ditched his campaign like a piece of ursine roadkill. It should be noted that the prodigal adult son tends to underperform in the Economist’s poll, where he registers at just 1% compared to the 3%-5% he snags in other surveys.
In what could be a positive sign for Harris, 53% of voters say they would consider voting for her. Trump and Trump-curious voters combine to 50% with the same number saying he’s a non-starter.
The Economist/YouGov poll had a sample size of 1,555 voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2%.
Evening Reads
—”Here’s how pro-Donald Trump Georgia officials wrote new rules to deny election results” via Justin Glawe of Rolling Stone
—”How is Kamala Harris getting away with this?” via Christian Paz of Vox
—“Harris’ election would defy history. Just one sitting VP has been elected President since 1836” via The Associated Press
—”Trump visit to Arlington Cemetery sparks alleged altercation with aides” via Dan Lamothe, Hannah Knowles and Alex Horton of The Washington Post
—“Democrats are chasing a high-risk, high-reward strategy in Georgia” via Myah Ward of POLITICO
—”Seven questions that should be easy for Harris to answer” via Conor Friedersdorf of The Atlantic
—”How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump” via G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
—”Far from presidential battlegrounds, blue states could decide Congress” via Nicholas Fandos and Catie Edmondson of The New York Times
—“Ron DeSantis says plan for state parks was ‘just half-baked’ and ‘not ready for prime time’” via Bill Kearney of the Orlando Sentinel
—”DeSantis pulls the plug on golf courses in state parks plan after public backlash” via Alex Harris and Ana Ceballos of the Miami Herald
—“Do Florida School Board elections signal the end of Moms for Liberty?” via Jeffrey S. Solochek of the Tampa Bay Times
Quote of the Day
“What was abundantly clear cut was: Section 60, no photos and no video.”
— A U.S. Dept. of Defense official, on the Trump campaign’s dust-up with an Arlington Cemetery worker.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Trump and Harris each get a No. 47 — not because they’d be the 47th President, but because they’re tied 47%-47% in Miami-Dade.
Nobody on Lake Mary’s championship Little League team will be able to have a cocktail this decade, but a few Disney Dollars and a Shirley Temple would make their post-tourney trip a little more special.
After correctly calling the HD 72 primary, the M3 Strategies team is setting up shop in the Sunshine State. Give them a warm welcome with Key Lime Pie Martini.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Battle for last: Marlins face Rockies
The two teams with the worst records in the National League meet tonight in Denver as the Miami Marlins conclude a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Florida).
Miami (48-84) and Colorado (49-84) split the first two games of the series, with the Marlins dropping game one 3-2 on Monday before topping the Rockies 9-8 last night. Miami can climb out of the National League cellar with a win tonight.
Both teams are on pace to lose over 100 games this season. Miami has one of the more difficult remaining schedules in the National League. With 30 games remaining, the Marlins’ opponents have a combined 0.507 winning percentage. However, Colorado has the second most difficult remaining schedule in the league, with opponents holding a 0.537 winning percentage. Colorado and Miami both face the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in separate three-game series. The Rockies, however, also must face the Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs, all of whom have winning records. The Marlins have the Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins and San Francisco Giants among the winning teams remaining on the schedule.
If Miami can win tonight, they will have a half-game lead on the Rockies as the franchises try to avoid the worst record in the National League.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
