Poll: Rick Scott, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are neck-and-neck in Miami-Dade County

U.S. Sen. Rick Scott won his U.S. Senate seat in 2018 by 10,033 votes. That was no thanks to Miami-Dade, where he trailed then-incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson by 21 percentage points.

Now, new polling shows Scott could be on track to narrowly win the once dependably blue county.

A survey this month of Miami-Dade voters found Scott holds a 1-point edge over his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. That’s well within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error.

Scott has 91% support among Republicans, while Mucarsel-Powell holds 85% support with Democrats.

Scott also enjoys an advantage with no-party voters, with 44% supporting him compared to 41% who side with Mucarsel-Powell.

Miami-based public research and consulting firm Inquire LLC randomly surveyed 500 likely General Election voters in Miami-Dade from Aug. 22-25. The interviews, conducted by text and phone in English and Spanish, were stratified by precinct and demographically to reflect voter turnout from previous even-year General Elections.

Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera, a Republican State Committeeman and ally of Donald Trump who ran the former President’s 2020 election effort in Florida, commissioned the poll.

Notably, Cabrera said he began the poll on the final night of the Democratic National Convention to capture Democrats’ “peak excitement.”

“Their enthusiasm will only go down from here,” he said.

Also notable: Miami-Dade is Mucarsel-Powell’s adopted home county. She immigrated there from Ecuador as a teen, began a career in nonprofits there and represented a large portion of the county in Congress from 2019 to 2021.

Albeit to far lesser of a degree, voter registration in Miami-Dade has followed a statewide trend in shifting redder in recent election cycles.

As of Aug. 1, Miami-Dade had 514,308 voters registered as Democrats (35% of the total), compared to 458,218 registered as Republicans (31%) and 472,407 with no party affiliation (32%). The remaining 29,132 belonged to a third party (2%).

In August 2018, Miami-Dade had 589,479 registered Democrats (42% of the total), 370,854 registered Republicans (26.5%), 437,954 no-party voters (31%) and 6,336 voters who belonged to a third party (0.5%).

Statewide polling for the race shows Scott maintains a small, but possibly shrinking lead over his challenger. A late July survey by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found Scott ahead by 4 points. Two others this month found him leading by 3 points.

Speaking alongside Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried last week, Mucarsel-Powell said she felt emboldened by the result of the Aug. 20 Primary.

“Rick Scott has won his previous three elections by a combined margin of 135,000,” she said during a press call the day after she secured the Democratic nomination. “Well, last night, 237,000 Republicans voted against him in the Primary, (so) don’t tell me we can’t defeat Rick Scott. I’m ready to do it.”

Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power was quick to point out that, statewide, “Democrats were outperformed by 14 points by Republicans” in the Primary.