A.G. Gancarski
Though there is rampant speculation that Kamala Harris may win Duval County as Joe Biden did in 2020, down-ballot elections in the Jacksonville area are a bit sleepier.
With no swing districts in play after 2022’s redistricting, hypothetical bettors on congressional and legislative races are more likely to wager on point spreads rather than outcomes, as these races were decided in August in a few cases and in a previous cycle’s Primary in others.
For example, the re-election campaigns of U.S. Reps. Aaron Bean and John Rutherford will likely be able to drown out Democratic opposition with a barrage of positive ads in the final six weeks of their campaign.
Both benefit from registration and fundraising advantages over Democrats L.J. Holloway and Jay McGovern, respectively. Bean has 30 times Holloway’s cash on hand; Rutherford has nearly 300 times the money McGovern does.
Turning to the Florida Senate races, state Sen. Tracie Davis benefited from a closed Primary in her 95% to 5% victory over the hapless Francky Jeanty. Write-in Vernon Jordan awaits her on the ballot for now.
Two other Democrats have similar scenarios. Both state Reps. Angie Nixon and Kim Daniels had competitive Primaries, each closed by write-in opposition. It remains to be seen if Terence Jordan or Briana Hughes are still running in November.
Republicans in Duval County also have some General Election battles ahead, though they are also lopsided.
State Rep. Wyman Duggan will be up against Democrat Ben Sandlin, who would be the youngest member of the Florida House should he win. The well-connected House District 12 incumbent has nearly $600,000 on hand between his campaign account and the Citizens for Building Florida’s Future political committee. Sandlin has a little more than $1,000 in his account.
In House District 15, Gary McManus, who lives on Jacksonville’s Westside, is challenging state Rep. Dean Black, who got 99% support against a write-in two years ago. McManus, who has roughly a grand in cash on hand, will do better than that. The district, which encompasses part of Duval and all of Nassau, is 49.4% Republican and 27.1% Democratic.
McManus had eyed a run in Florida’s 4th Congressional District against Bean, which would have created a contested Primary against Holloway. After consideration and pleas from fellow Democrats, the longtime computer sales executive opted for the HD 15 race instead.
McManus has a little more than $1,000 cash on hand. Black has more than $60,000 in hard money, with another $20,000 in his True Conservatives political committee.
The most spirited challenge to any Duval County incumbent may be from Rachel Grage, who looks to unseat state Rep. Kiyan Michael in House District 16. Michael was propelled into office two years ago by a Ron DeSantis endorsement.
The incumbent has roughly $27,000 on hand; Grage has nearly $18,000 in cash, so she is competitive in terms of hard money. It is unclear if either candidate has a political committee.
The district is drawn for a Republican winner, however, with more than 55,000 Republicans and fewer than 34,000 Democrats.
Yet another long-shot challenge is in store in House District 17 in southern Duval County, where Bryson Kade Morgan, a 21-year-old former marketing manager for the Texas Roadhouse chain, looks to take on state Rep. Jessica Baker.
Morgan faces some challenges, including the district registration numbers: 41.2% GOP and 29.4% Democrat, with no-party voters and third-party voters roughly equaling Democratic numbers. Baker defeated Michael Anderson 61% to 39% in 2022, suggesting that HD 17 voters are performing according to registration splits.
The incumbent has more than $90,000 cash on hand, with almost $105,000 in her Conservative Majority Florida political committee. Morgan has roughly $3,000 on hand.
