Florida pollster finds Donald Trump, Rick Scott with narrow leads in state

A Florida-based Republican pollster finds Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris by just 2 percentage points. Additionally, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott holds less than a 1-point edge on Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Victory Insights, which has an office in Naples, said in a polling memo that Florida has morphed from a swing state to a red state. Yet, it’s entirely possible the state in 2024 remains in play, according to the firm’s latest survey results.

Senior pollster Ben Galbraith noted that both races are within the survey’s margin of error.

President

The poll finds Trump winning just under 47% of likely voters in his home state, while nearly 45% intend to vote for Harris.

“Another 8% of voters remain undecided,” Galbraith wrote. “The overwhelming majority of these undecided voters are nonpartisans; 60% say they don’t tend to support either of the major parties, while the other 40% are split approximately equally between Democrats and Republicans.”

The poll of 600 likely voters has a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.

Pollsters also found greater enthusiasm among Trump’s base — those with a positive view of Trump who rate him with a 5 out of 5 in favorability — than is found among Harris supporters. However, the Republican has an even higher “hatred index,” those respondents who give candidates a 1 on the scale.

Trump has an enthusiasm index of about 76%, but a hatred index above 92%, while Harris has about a 71% enthusiasm index and a 90% hatred index.

“Florida has morphed into more and more of a red state, and Republicans’ registration advantage in the state has been ever increasing,” Galbraith noted. “In 2024, many people are wondering: do Democrats even have a shot to win Florida? Our polling suggests that it’s not outside the realm of possibility.”

Senate

Scott, a Naples Republican, also seems in serious danger of losing a second term, the poll shows. Less than 45% of voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate, while just under 44% plan to support Mucarsel-Powell, who won her party’s nomination in August.

The former two-term Florida Governor holds much higher name recognition that rivals that of the presidential nominees, according to the poll. But Scott also similarly elicits strong emotions among voters.

More than 32% of voters have a positive view of Scott, but 43% have a negative view. About 10% of voters hold no opinion about the incumbent, while more than 35% of respondents say the same of Mucarsel-Powell. Of those who did have feelings about the Democrat, more than 26% have a positive view and some 25% have a negative view.

In the signature enthusiasm and hatred scores for the pollsters, Mucarsel-Powell has the better score in both. With a 69% enthusiasm index to Scott’s 65%, and with a 76% hatred index to the incumbent’s 90%.

“Scott’s underperformance as compared to Trump can be largely attributed to lower party loyalty,” Galbreath wrote. “Trump pulls in 94% of the vote among Republican-aligned voters, but Scott only gets 88% among the same group.”

PollReport FL GE 09-30-24 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd