Associated Press
No one is likely to be happy with the projected higher deficits laid out in a new analysis of Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s economic plans.
The analysis released Monday by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget suggests a Harris presidency could increase the national debt over 10 years by $3.5 trillion. That’s even though the Vice President’s campaign insists her proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Her campaign policy guide states that Harris is “committed to fiscal responsibility — making investments that will support our economy, while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time.”
The same analysis says former President Trump’s ideas could heap another $7.5 trillion onto the debt and possibly as much as $15.2 trillion. That’s even though he suggests growth would be so strong under his watch that no one would need to worry about deficits.
The 34-page report released by the fiscal watchdog group puts a spotlight on the issue of government borrowing that will confront the winner of November’s election. Total federal debt held by the public now tops $28 trillion and is expected to keep climbing as revenues can’t keep up with the growing costs of Social Security, Medicare and other programs. The analysis noted that the expense of servicing that debt in dollar terms has “eclipsed the cost of defending our nation or providing health care to elderly Americans.”
Drawing on the candidates’ speeches, campaign documents and social media posts, the analysis warns bluntly: “Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidates’ plans and in most scenarios would grow faster and higher than under current law.”
Neither candidate has meaningfully stressed budget deficit reduction in their pitch to voters. But multiple analyses show a clear difference of Harris being much more fiscally responsible than Trump.
Harvard University professor Jason Furman, who was the top economist in the Obama White House, estimated in an opinion article for The Wall Street Journal that Harris’ plans could cut deficits by $1.5 trillion or raise them by $1.5 trillion. Meanwhile, his estimates show that Trump’s plans would increase deficits by $5 trillion, though that figure does not include his plans to charge no taxes on overtime pay and scrap the limit on deductions of state and local taxes.
There are other estimates by The Budget Lab at Yale and the Penn Wharton Budget Model that also show Harris would be better at keeping the deficit in check.
The Harris campaign said it sharply disagreed with the analysis of Harris’ policies by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, saying that she would reduce the deficit if she became President. The Trump campaign did not respond to questions about its response to the analysis.
The committee analysis estimates that Harris’ policy ideas could add $3.5 trillion to the national debt through 2035. That conclusion depends on its treatment of how much various programs could cost.
It forecasts that Harris would implement $4.6 trillion in tax reductions, including extensions of some of the expiring 2017 tax cuts that Trump signed into law and tax breaks for parents and no taxes on tipped income for hospitality workers. Roughly $4 trillion in higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy would be insufficient to cover the total cost of her agenda and the additional interest on the debt that it could generate.
Still, the analysis notes that its numbers depend on various interpretations of what Harris has said. It’s possible that Harris’ agenda would add nothing to baseline deficits, but the report also said it might plausibly add as much as $8.1 trillion in debt in what appears to be a worse-case scenario.
By contrast, Trump’s ideas would likely add another $7.5 trillion to the debt. His $2.7 trillion in tariff revenues would be unable to cover $9.2 trillion in tax cuts and additional expenditures such as $350 billion to secure the border and deport unauthorized immigrants.
But the analysis includes other possibilities that show far higher deficits under Trump. If his tariffs raised less money and there were higher costs for his mass deportations and tax breaks, the national debt could jump by $15.2 trillion.
On the other hand, if the tariffs raised $4.3 trillion and there were no costs tied to deportations, Trump’s plans could only increase the debt by $1.5 trillion over 10 years.
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Republished with permission of The Associated Press.
21 comments
Michael K
October 7, 2024 at 3:05 pm
Trump raised the deficit by more than $8 trillion – Biden less than half that amount. Once again, Trump’s budget outline raises the debt substantially more than Vice President Harris’ proposals.
Trump is terrible for fiscal policy unless you happen to be a billionaire. And keep in mind, the American consumer pays the tariffs.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 7, 2024 at 6:21 pm
Who is paying for the inflationary economy? Kammy has never worked in the private sector except for her brief time at McDonald’s. I saw her with a shovel today. Looks like it was the first t8meime she ever handled one. Middle Class family my azz.
Billy Rotberg
October 7, 2024 at 7:19 pm
Why isn’t the current administration she’s a part of fixing the problems they caused?
Billy Rotberg
October 7, 2024 at 7:18 pm
You can’t tax your way into prosperity, it’s like standing in a bucket and trying to lift yourself. -Churchill.
yew oweme
October 7, 2024 at 11:24 pm
BILLY BOY, your comments are like a fingernail on a chalkboard. your dunning- kruger effect mind is so annoying. in other words, you know nothing, PLEASE shut up.
Billy Rotberg
October 8, 2024 at 11:06 am
I don’t take orders from nazi trash bullies Rick. You will have to use force to silence me rather than your juvenile crybaby personal attacks.
yew oweme
October 8, 2024 at 11:19 pm
BILLY BOY , i didn’t give you an order. i just criticized the hell out of you. you set yourself up with your asinine comments. you are so deplorable, that it demands comments on your deplorability. decent people wouldn’t use force on you, they would just laugh at you and walk around you. you have blown yourself up so big in your head that you can’t think straight.
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 8, 2024 at 11:11 am
Take your own advice, bitch.
FLPatriot
October 8, 2024 at 9:10 am
Trump policies will raise taxes on 95% of Americans.
Bobblehead Kammy
October 7, 2024 at 8:09 pm
She is a lightweight. Just plain dumb comes to mind. I saw the 60 minute softball interview and once again it was Kammy Word Salad. Good looks, a party girl personality will only get you so far. She is done.
yew oweme
October 7, 2024 at 11:18 pm
MAGA MARK, your statement is pure woman hating. what the hell do you hate women for? i shutter to imagine. is your dna sample on file with the police?
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 8, 2024 at 11:07 am
You are a little bitch ricki
yew oweme
October 8, 2024 at 11:02 pm
WHATEVER DUDE.
The Sage "E"
October 7, 2024 at 9:20 pm
Good evening beloved undecided voters,
Please use exream caution with these A. P articals because the A. P. is “IN THE TANK” for another term of The Harris Admimistration.
The Country cant sustain its self under a HARRIS ADMINISTRATION 2.0.
Please for your family’s sake seek out a reliable news source.
Thank you beloved undecided voters,
“E”
yew oweme
October 7, 2024 at 11:14 pm
EARL, the AP makes you look bad. the AP reports the facts in the news, but you spew lies like the crazy guy on the corner in a bad neighborhood. big difference. but you go on with your crazy schtick, it’s bound to have driven voters to harris. you’re weird.
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 8, 2024 at 11:09 am
You are a psychotic rambling old fool ricki.
yew oweme
October 8, 2024 at 11:03 pm
WHATEVER DUDE
Dont Say FLA
October 8, 2024 at 7:13 am
Trump loves to say he won by a lot. In the area of exploding the deficit like nobody’s ever seen before (or since), he’s absolutely right.
Turnip J Truck ran up the biggest deficit of all presidents, ever, winning by twice the runner up. The man’s incompetence is unfathomable, and the voters who deny it, whuuuuuuut up?
FLPatriot
October 8, 2024 at 9:12 am
7-8 trillion in deficit under Trumps first administration. His policies will tax 95% of Americans and add at least another 5 trillion to the deficit in his second. NO THANKS.
Rick and Zed's gay man sex emporium
October 8, 2024 at 11:10 am
Enjoy paying more for everything with nothing in return sucker! You deserve it!
yew oweme
October 8, 2024 at 11:07 pm
what’s with the fear dude, harris will be good for you. take it greasy, it’ll be easy, even if you’re sleazy. don’t be so negative dude.
Comments are closed.