Florida GOP touts ‘strong position’ headed into Election Day voting

Voters lining up outside a modern polling station, early morning light, wideangle view
Republicans showed up in droves. Can Democrats close the gap Tuesday?

More than 8 million Floridians have cast ballots already, according to the Florida Secretary of State.

And the trend is clear on Monday afternoon

Democrats are staring up at Republicans, at least when it comes to voter participation during early voting through Sunday.

Of the 5,354,829 in-person ballots cast, the GOP has a seven-figure buffer over Democrats: 2,549,779 to 1,511,828. An additional 1,158,025 no-party voters have already made their preferences known, along with 135,173 people who belong to minor parties.

Democrats make up ground with the 2,834,555 mail ballots that have been cast, with 1,182,944 on their side, compared to 989,822 from GOP voters, 600,485 from no-party voters, and 61,241 from third-party members.

But overall, Republicans have banked more than 3.5 million votes already in Florida, with Democrats just shy of 2.7 million votes, reflecting what Republicans say shows “considerable swing toward Republicans from this point in the 2020 General Election: a 7-point swing toward Republicans in Early Voting, a 7-point swing toward Republicans in vote-by-mail and an 11-point swing overall toward Republicans.

“The media-hyped “Souls to the Polls” was a complete flop for Florida Democrats yesterday, with the Democrats only gaining a net 29,494 voters on the day,” notes a memo from the Republican Party of Florida touting the “strong position” they are in.

Republicans typically win Election Day voting historically, and the question this year is whether they have cannibalized their vote share Tuesday by reeducating voters to cast ballots early.

But that question doesn’t worry the chair of the state party.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has been the Northeast Florida correspondent for Florida Politics since 2014. He writes for the New York Post and National Review also, with previous work in the American Conservative and Washington Times and a 15+ year run as a columnist in Folio Weekly. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


20 comments

  • I Am Garbage

    November 4, 2024 at 9:17 am

    Ask yourself this, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The majority of people would say no. Kammy is attempting to separate herself from Joe and re write history. She should be fired for the Southern Border alone.

    Reply

    • cassandra was right

      November 4, 2024 at 11:30 am

      Trump’s promises to put M*sk in charge of his new “Efficiency” agency. M*sk says it is NECESSARY to “crash the economy”.” He states Trump’s plans will cause pain and suffering — but that’s good! Market crash! $2T/year cuts. Maybe you don’t live on your 401k, or stock portfolio, but a lot of Floridian’s do!

      IT WILL NOT BE THE WAY YOU REMEMBER TRUMP!

      Vote Harris!

      Reply

  • forsaken

    November 4, 2024 at 9:28 am

    I essentially make about $9,000-$13,000 every month on the web. It’s sufficient to serenely supplant my old employments pay, particularly considering I just work around 10-13 hours every week from home. I was stunned how simple it was after I attempted it duplicate underneath web…..

    Begin here>>>>>>>>>

    Reply

  • Cheesy Floridian

    November 4, 2024 at 9:31 am

    Get out and vote! Don’t hand the state over to DeSantis and Scott again.

    Reply

    • I Am Garbage

      November 4, 2024 at 9:41 am

      DeSantis is not running for re election. I hope you know that. Trump and Scott will both win in Florida. Easy money.

      Reply

      • cassandra was right

        November 4, 2024 at 11:36 am

        Right. He’s just campaigning for state ownership of women’s bodies. End White Christian Nationalist MINORITY RULE!

        Take the Sammie Alito political power challenge — Vote YES on 4!
        Vote HARRIS!

        Reply

      • Cheesy Floridian

        November 4, 2024 at 11:58 am

        I know who is running and I know that it will make him mad if he doesn’t get what he wants. And that will make me happy if I know he is upset.

        Reply

  • Dont Say FLA

    November 4, 2024 at 9:37 am

    C’mon now, 800,000 registered Repubicans going and voting absolutely does not equal 800,000 votes for Trump or Scott or Little Marco or any of the Luna Tic MAGA crowd.

    Gonna be an awful lot of blanks on the ballots cast by registered Republicans, I’m betting.

    But if you won’t vote for Trump, why leave it open for the taking by Trump? Just hold your nose and vote for VP Harris if you’re one of the many Republicans who realized Trump is the extremely wrong person for President of the USA. I doubt the man could do the garbage truck or McDonalds fry cook jobs either. He’s totally useless for anything but riling up rubes like he did that one January 6th.

    Vote like it’s January 7th, PLEASE.

    Reply

    • I Am Garbage

      November 4, 2024 at 9:42 am

      Wishful thinking on your part. Maybe the Dems should leave their Presidential pick blank as well since there is no one at home in Kammy’s head.

      Reply

      • cassandra was right

        November 4, 2024 at 11:47 am

        Electric sharks and Nancy pelosi hamberders

        Reply

  • MH/Duuuval

    November 4, 2024 at 9:44 am

    I, and the nation as a whole, are better off than four years ago because we have had rational actors in the White House in this period. The MAGA House of Representatives, in contrast, has rivaled the infamous Do-Nothing House that put Harry Truman back into office in 1948.

    The economy has gradually improved and inflation has fallen off although clearly we have some folks who continue to gouge consumers. The Biden economic plan, passed with little assistance from MAGAs — who now want to take credit for infrastructure improvements in their districts or states — has disproportionately improved ailing Red State economies.

    The immigration situation could have been fixed 6 months ago by MAGA worshippers in the Congress listened to Dumb Donald Trump. Instead, they bent over backwards to give DJT his favorite fetish, which is asylum seekers today are not good for the economy or society — as if the Trumps came over during the last Ice Age.

    (BTW: Is Mar-a-Lago still bringing in seasonal workers from the Caribbean?)

    One major source of humor over the last four years has been the supine behavior of MAGA adherents in public life. Lots of verbal bravado — “I served” — but when DJT coughs, they run for cover. (Trump never served — he was a draft dodger who took advantage of the system as so many rich and connected young men did in the Vietnam era.)

    Floridians have a good idea of what life would be like if Trump is elected again: Look at DeSantis Florida where a new nanny state has risen, complete with propaganda apparatus to broadcast denials, law fare in packed state course, and pay-to-play access to government agencies.

    The MAGA assault on the human rights of US women and the disinformation underpinning it is rank, and hopefully women and their male allies in this struggle will vote to kick MAGAs to the curb everywhere.

    Reply

  • MarvinM

    November 4, 2024 at 10:56 am

    Once again we have a headline that suggests a certain trend leading to maybe an outcome favoring the GOP.

    But it does not take into account the impact of the NPA vote.
    So yeah, Rs have more Florida voter registrations than Ds by 1,077,927 (as of the data I referenced today, 11/4/2024).

    But NPA plus Other equals 4,027,661. They can totally cut into and surpass that theoretical R lead.

    It will all depend on getting out to vote.
    So do it, if you haven’t already.

    Reply

    • I Am Garbage

      November 4, 2024 at 11:05 am

      You were the guy touting early voting by the Dems. Now you are hanging your hat on the NPA’s. Hilarious.

      Reply

      • cassandra was right

        November 4, 2024 at 11:43 am

        Funny, isn’t it, how people who can walk AND chew gum at the same time are voting for HARRIS!!!

        Vote HARRIS!
        YES on 4!
        YES on 3!

        Reply

  • Cheesy Floridian

    November 4, 2024 at 11:59 am

    People can be registered under a certain party and vote however they choose to vote. Just because more republicans have cast a ballot doesn’t mean all those are for Trump or Scott.

    Reply

    • cassandra was right

      November 4, 2024 at 12:14 pm

      Iowa 20 point lead for Harris! Age 65+ >2 to 1 Harris!
      Big surprise-—TO MEN!!! Shock a guy who deserves it! LOL!

      FREEDOM! AUTONOMY!
      Vote HARRIS!
      YES on 4!

      Reply

      • White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump

        November 4, 2024 at 12:45 pm

        Cassandra, Black MAGA is dragging at Trump coat tail in NC,not in a good way ,he insulted White women,by calling them the worst name a man can call a woman,but his was racial Google Mark Robinson Polls Google Mark Robinson Black Nazi

        Reply

  • KathrynA

    November 4, 2024 at 12:09 pm

    I see the country and so much better economically with help for those working poor who had little help before. I’ve seen decent, intelligent people who understand the world working hard to stabilize things here and around the world. I see unions who have helped bolster wages for millions and badly needed infrastructure being built and improved and help for those in the paths of disasters. Without Trump in the picture, civility and compassion have returned. With him, I see rage, chaos, fascism and little healthcare and lack of well founded thought on science, climate change and more! It was a terrible chaotic 4 years before and this time, we will have an angry dictator who doesn’t believe in or back the Constitution or Rule of Law.

    Reply

  • White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump

    November 4, 2024 at 12:40 pm

    After January we will.control.all the levers of national politics, meaning the Justice department with it prosecutor powers to mead out Justice,not out of vengeance,but in the interest of Justice protecting the rights of those who adhere to values of Liberty Equality and Justice for All

    Reply

  • I didn't forget

    November 4, 2024 at 12:49 pm

    “Life was better under President Trump—with the economy, border security, and international affairs—and voters know it.”

    Don’t forget the f@cking pandemic – it did better under Trump. Killed and mamed people.

    Reply

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