A.G. Gancarski
So much for polls when you can follow the money.
Four of the leading Presidential Election prediction markets are bullish to varying degrees on Donald Trump as the 2024 cycle comes to a close, as they fade Democrat Kamala Harris.
The IBKR Forecast Trader market shows a “Yes” share valued at 68 cents, up 11 cents on the day.
Trump “Yes” shares were as low as 52 cents in the last week, but the investors have rediscovered confidence in the former President.
In contrast, a Kamala Harris “Yes” share is 37 cents at this writing for an overall win. That had been as high as 54 cents over the weekend.
The Kalshi market showed Harris having closed the gap with Trump on Saturday, even taking a lead in the 10 p.m. hour, but the former President is now the favorite. A “Yes” share for his win is priced at 65 cents at this writing.
Polymarket showed Harris having evened the gap with Trump early last month, but now a “Yes” share for Trump’s victory is priced at nearly 8 cents.
Harris held leads in August and October, but the money has trended Trump since.
PredictIt has also moved toward Trump, after a Harris lean. A “Yes” share is 61 cents for him, while the same is priced at 42 cents for her.
The ultimate winner of the election likely won’t be known for days to come, but investors think they have it figured out.
36 comments
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 6:15 am
We will see after tonight,I think him bashing Hispanic will lead to MAGA,undoing most minority do see Trump vision,and a you that support Trump will be ostracized by American,since your family has done it Google Women Not Dating MAGA Men
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 6:33 am
He didn’t bash Hispanics. A comedian that none of us ever heard of cracked a poor joke about Puerto Rico, again not all Hispanics. Now Biden comes out right after that and calls roughly 50% of the population in the United States of America garbage. Question? Is Kammy still saying that Joe is sharp, focused, energized, etc?
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 7:46 am
Their not enough White ignorant people like you to ever elect a Republican President, Trump is a certified rapist and racist,you do not speak for Hispanic only for trash
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 7:57 am
Where you going rioting and looting tonight if Trump wins Yrral?
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 8:04 am
You are the one that gonna ,be butt hurt, because their will not be a winner tonight, because of different time zones, Alaska and Hawaii
Fred S
November 6, 2024 at 8:36 am
Illiterate clown. You are an embarrassment to the human race.
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 7:47 am
Google Univision Hispanic Presidential Poll
cassandra was right
November 5, 2024 at 10:11 am
He joked about “LATINOS”: sexual behavior, birth control, immigration.
Big difference between Biden’s gaffe and Trump’s statements about “vermin”, “enemy of the people”, “garbage”, childless cat lady”, “poisoning the blood”, “rapists”, “eating pets”,…etc. Biden clarifies gaffes. Trump campaigns on hate speech and insults. Most people intuitively understand this.
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 10:51 am
So you are telling me that people will vote on sensitivity issues and not the economy, borders, world chaos and such? Call me an old white cracker, I don’t care. The little stuff doesn’t matte. Sticks and Stones. , it’s the big stuff like I mentioned above.
Frankie M.
November 5, 2024 at 6:58 am
What a blessing for the community! Heil Trump!!
Tom
November 5, 2024 at 7:26 am
I’m nauseously optimistic that he’ll lose, hopefully in a landslide that he can’t lie his way out of.
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 7:58 am
There will be no landslide. Both sides are optimistic on victory. Who knows?
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 8:24 am
Gays , Indians, African, Asian, Caribbean, Blacks and Whites Ukrainian and Russians and Hispanic and Disabled and other minority will outvote White Spiteful MAGA
Fred S
November 6, 2024 at 8:37 am
Not even close, you pathetic little clown.
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 5, 2024 at 9:08 am
Name of policy that you benefited from Trump,you cannot name one, because you still miserable,just like you were under Trump
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 9:12 am
Well gasoline was much cheaper. Buying groceries and other commodities were much cheaper. The world was at peace and our borders were secure.
MH/Duuuval
November 5, 2024 at 10:07 am
And MAGA true believers were disproportionately dying from Covid due to MAGA quackery.
When did you get your vaccination?
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 10:19 am
MH. I’m typically not one that goes to the doctor or gets vaccinations. Not a religious or conspiracy thing, I just don’t go. Now my profession required a Covid vaccination. No shot, no worky. I also took a leave of absence during that period and did lots of travel which also required the Fauci jab. I got the single shot J & J.
Joey
November 5, 2024 at 2:05 pm
Tbe border was never close or secure thats a lie.
Jojo
November 5, 2024 at 7:40 am
And big time investors make up what percentage of the population?
The things that REALLY matter- reproductive rights, peaceful transition of power, a country that includes everyone- these are the issues that will sway the election
Michael K
November 5, 2024 at 9:02 am
Yes, the billionaire tax-cut crowd like Musk and Thiel expect their payback. But don’t think they have the interest of everyday Americans at heart. They could care less. Both of them only care about their money and think they alone can fix it. That’s how oligarchs roll.
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 9:14 am
Do you think all those Hollywood celebs, actors, entertainers, musicians give a crap about you?
Michael K
November 5, 2024 at 9:37 am
I know they do. I’ve known lots of artists my whole life. They are some of the smartest, most caring and compassionate and generous people one could imagine.
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 9:49 am
Ha! Ha! Okay Michael K.
MH/Duuuval
November 5, 2024 at 10:09 am
When Hollywood stars effect financial legislation, let us know.
A Day without MAGA
November 5, 2024 at 11:01 am
White Spiteful Wall of Trump cease to exist tonight
Fred S
November 6, 2024 at 8:38 am
Four years without imbeciles like you in power! LMAO!
ScienceBLVR
November 5, 2024 at 11:54 am
“I feel it coming; I feel it coming, Babe”
America will reject Trump’s brand of racism, misogyny, and hatred. It’s the year of the Woman and we will save the Democracy, whether it likes it, or not!
“I feel it coming; I feel it coming…
The Cat In The MAGA Hat
November 5, 2024 at 4:06 pm
Lots of the MAGA men are butthurt, because when women find their support of Trump the Rapist,they get dumped like a turd, Google Women Not Dating MAGA Men
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 5:04 pm
Getting nervous Yrral?
the Truth Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 4:07 pm
I am looking forward to the left lunatics melting down after this election, much worse than they did in 2016.. lets see if Lady Gaga moves to Canada,,, she won’t, she is a liar,,, Melt down baby
Kyle Prescott
November 5, 2024 at 4:25 pm
It’s a GOP sweep based on the exit polls that are coming out soon. MSNBC showing black voters in cities to try and keep the morale up but their internals are showing a huge Red Wave.
EARL PITTS AMERICAN
November 5, 2024 at 6:30 pm
Good evening Dook 4 Brains Leftys,
Get your sack-cloth and ashes ready and practice up on your Wailing and gnashing of teeth in preperation for The Sage Trump Big Red Wave!!!!
Thank you, Dook 4 Brains Leftys, I’m EARL PITTS AMERICAN, and I approve this message of Sage Wisdom. epa
Barth Gimble Deportation Czar
November 6, 2024 at 6:18 am
Well America its Wednesday morning and our hero Earl was correct in that Trump won and I have already accepted the position of deportation czar. The world is good.
Barth Gimble Deportation Czar
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 7:28 pm
Bye bye Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
I Am Garbage
November 6, 2024 at 5:29 am
Bye bye Kammy.
Comments are closed.