Presidential Election prediction markets show break to Donald Trump on election eve

Image via AP.

So much for polls when you can follow the money.

Four of the leading Presidential Election prediction markets are bullish to varying degrees on Donald Trump on the penultimate day of the 2024 cycle.

Three see him up, while one of them shows his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris slightly ahead.

The IBKR Forecast Trader market shows a “Yes” share valued at 57 cents at present, with a “No” share at 42 cents.

Trump “Yes” shares were as low as 52 cents in the last week, but the investors have rediscovered confidence in the former President.

In contrast, a Kamala Harris “Yes” share is 45 cents at this writing for an overall win. That had been as high as 54 cents over the weekend.

IBKR investors don’t see the blue wall holding for Harris, with a “Yes” share in Pennsylvania at 43 cents at this writing. However, Michigan is a 65 cent “Yes,” while Wisconsin is at 57 cents.

The Kalshi market showed Harris having closed the gap with Trump on Saturday, even taking a lead in the 10 p.m. hour, but the former President is now the favorite. A “Yes” share for his win is priced at 55 cents at this writing.

Polymarket showed Harris having evened the gap with Trump early last month, but now a “Yes” share for Trump’s victory is priced at 58 cents while a “No” is 41 cents.

Harris held leads in August and October, but the money has trended Trump since.

PredictIt represents an outlier in Harris’ favor. A “Yes” share for Harris and Trump is priced at 54 and 52 cents respectively at this writing, while a Democratic “Yes” share is 54 cents and a Republican share is 53 cents.

Investors expect a close race regardless, with “Yes” shares for Democrats or Republicans winning the Electoral College by more than 65 votes priced around 20 cents for each proposition.

Expect shifts in the markets in the hours before vote counts are announced, which will be 7 p.m. eastern. But the ultimate winner of the election likely won’t be known for days to come, given slower counting in places like Pennsylvania and Arizona, two of the seven swing states in play.