Gay Valimont, Jimmy Patronis both say voters in CD 1 will send a message in high-stakes Special Election

No congressional district in Florida boasts a stronger track record of Republican support than Florida’s 1st Congressional District. However, as one of the first Special Elections for Congress since President Donald Trump’s 2024 win, Democrats poured millions into the Panhandle contest. Will it make a difference?

In a Tuesday Special Election, Democrat Gay Valimont faces Republican Jimmy Patronis in a race to decide who succeeds former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz.

In November, Valimont lost to Gaetz by 36 percentage points, as the district broke for Trump by 38 points. But this time, she has raised upward of $6.5 million, while Patronis has reported more than $2 million in contributions. Democrats hope to beat historic trends and send Valimont to Congress or at least to send a message to Washington about discontent within the electorate, even in Trump country.

“In Congress, I will show Florida’s 1st District what it looks like when the government truly works for the people and our needs,” Valimont said at a recent campaign event.

Patronis, for his part, remains confident the values of Panhandle voters will translate into election results. On the eve of the election, he told Florida Politics that voters in CD 1 want to empower Trump’s agenda, not cripple it.

“These are the same folks that less than six months ago overwhelmingly voted to elect President Donald J. Trump to the White House,” Patronis said. “They were fed up the last four years. They were fed up with the inflation crisis. They were fed up with being poor. They wanted a government that was responsible to the people, and this is why they showed up the way they did. So you know, they’re going to expect government that’s going to be effective and responsive to their needs. This is what they’re going to get with me.”

Patronis has served most of the last decade as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer, a post he had to resign from as of Monday to run for the U.S. House. Valimont has been involved in politics as an activist, including working for Moms Demand Action to find ways to curb gun violence.

Heading into Election Day, Democrats have turned out a higher percentage of their voters than Republicans. As of Monday morning, elections officials had received 11,611 mail-in ballots from Democrats across the district, slightly more than the 11,527 already turned in by Republicans. Another 3,756 ballots came in from voters not registered with either party.

But in-person early voting is a different story. Over two weeks, 31,875 Republicans took advantage of the opportunity to cast ballots in select locations, almost double the 16,430 Democrats who did the same. Another 7,893 voters also used early voting.

Heading into the April 1 Special Election, Republicans had a greater than 18-point advantage in raw turnout. Party officials expect that to increase, as many Republicans still favor voting at the polls on Election Day.

Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried plans to canvas in Pensacola this morning for a last-minute drive to turn out voters for Valimont. Rapper 2 Chainz even held a free concert in Pensacola on Saturday to encourage early voting.

However, Republicans have also stepped up efforts to turn out Patronis voters. Trump, who endorsed Patronis before entering the race, held a tele-rally for the Panama City Republican this weekend. Republican Party of Florida Executive Director Bill Helmich said party volunteers made 200,000 phone calls in this race and another Special Election being held today.

“Obviously we want as many Republicans as possible voting,” he said. “Unless a lot of Republicans are voting against Mr. Patronis, which I doubt, he is fine.”

Florida Democratic Party Deputy Communications Manager Matt Dailey said that, between the two congressional elections in Florida on Tuesday, “Our whole staff is working one way or another.”

Privately, Democrats acknowledge an uphill battle for Valimont even with her cash advantage. But Valimont’s campaign sees a path to victory if she can turn out a high number of Democrats, win most independent voters, and convince enough Republicans that it is time for change. Efforts by the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency to gut defense spending have provided a strong message in a district where military spending keeps many households afloat.

“I will work to lower the cost of living, reduce homeowners’ insurance costs, protect Social Security and Medicare, and bring a VA hospital to our district,” Valimont said on social media. “I’m a mom and community advocate who will always put Northwest Florida first. I love this place. Every corner of this district reminds me of my family. My opponent is the CFO of Florida, the man responsible for Florida’s insurance crisis. He also doesn’t live in our district.”

But Patronis also feels voters know they are getting with him, and that’s a strong public servant. He twice carried this district in statewide races for his Cabinet post and expects to do so again on Tuesday.

“Jimmy Patronis is not a show horse. He’s a workhorse,” Patronis said of himself. “And you know, I really enjoy working. I’m the guy that likes to get to the office an hour before I’m supposed to be there, and I like to stay about an hour after I’m supposed to already leave. So I’m signing up for work. I’m signing up for my new job, and hopefully, I will get it with the people’s trust on Tuesday night.”