AIF poll: Florida GOP holds edge on the issues and at the ballot box

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Florida Republicans are heading into the 2026 election cycle with a clear advantage, according to new polling from the Associated Industries of Florida Center for Political Strategy.

In AIF’s second-quarter poll of likely voters, Republicans hold a 5-point lead (47%-42%) on a generic state legislative ballot. That’s a narrower margin than the Florida Chamber’s May poll, which gave the GOP a double-digit edge (50%-40%), but the direction is the same: Democrats are still struggling to close the gap with an electorate that has tilted right.

Further down the poll, AIF found Republicans continuing to outperform Democrats on the front-and-center issues for Florida voters, including economic matters — the GOP holds a 12-point edge on “reducing inflation and everyday costs,” a 7-point advantage on lowering property insurance premiums and a 5-point lead on “helping the middle class.”

Those gaps are made more significant by the weight voters are placing on economic concerns — 64% cited “pocketbook” issues as their top priority, leaving little oxygen for other policy areas.

Still, respondents also said they would trust a generic Republican over the Democratic alternative to handle education issues better (+7), but the real blowout was on pro-Israel policies, where they held a 31-point lead.

Beyond the issues, voter registration trends suggest Florida Republicans’ electoral advantage is becoming baked in.

AIF’s May snapshot showed Republicans with a 1.31 million voter registration edge over Democrats (a 9.6% gap), with 40.6% of active voters now registered as Republicans, compared to just 30.9% for Democrats. The remaining 28.5% are third- and no-party voters.

The AIF poll also examined support for federal health care tax credits, which are set to expire in 2025 — an issue where bipartisan consensus still exists. Seventy-eight percent of voters support extending the credits, including 82% of Republicans and 75% of Democrats. A majority (53%) “strongly approve” of continuing the credits, which help more than 24 million Americans afford coverage.

One area where voters across party lines seem to agree is extending enhanced federal health care tax credits. AIF found overwhelming bipartisan support for preserving the credits set to expire at the end of 2025, with 78% of Florida voters in favor — including 82% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 74% of Independents. A 53% majority “strongly approve” of keeping the credits.

That consensus isn’t limited to Florida. A recent KFF Health Tracking Poll found 77% of U.S. adults — including 63% of Republicans — back extending the premium subsidies.

Florida, which has the highest proportion of ACA marketplace enrollees in the country, would be particularly hard hit. The Congressional Budget Office projects that nearly 2 million Floridians could lose coverage by 2034 without an extension.

The AIF poll was conducted June 9-11 by McLaughlin & Associates. It has a sample size of 800 likely Florida voters, with a margin of error of ±3.5 %.