Peter Schorsch
OK, let’s game this out…
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio is giving all indications that he will announce sometime in the spring his decision whether he will run for president.
Last Friday, Rubio kicked off an election-strategy powwow at Miami Beach’s Delano Hotel by announcing a fundraising team that looked like a presidential campaign-in-waiting, reports Marc Caputo of the Miami Herald. “Prepare for a presidential campaign,” Rubio recently told aides in the run-up to the weekend.
That doesn’t mean Rubio is definitely running for the White House, but it’s the strongest indication yet.
Rubio has also said that if he runs for president, he will not run for re-election to the U.S. Senate.
Last year, Rubio told radio talk-show host Hugh Hewitt that if he decides to run for president, he won’t also run for his U.S. Senate seat.
In Florida, Rubio said, “You can’t be on the ballot for two different offices … and I think that’s the right law.”
Even if Florida changed its law, what Rubio said to Hewitt would at least be tricky to get past if he were to change his mind and run for two offices.
“I think, by and large,” Rubio told Matt Berman of the National Journal, “when you choose to do something as big as [seeking the presidency], you’ve really got to be focused on that and not have an exit strategy.”
Of course, Rubio, if and when he bows out of the presidential race, probably sometime in early 2016, could turn right around and start running for a second term. This will be especially true if Rubio makes a good, noble showing in the early GOP presidential primaries.
Supporters of Rubio could orchestrate an effort wherein Florida GOP officials “beg” Rubio to seek re-election.
But let’s take Rubio at his word. If he runs for president, he’s not running for re-election in 2016. That obviously puts his U.S. Senate seat in play. If that’s the scenario, both Republicans and Democrats owe it to themselves to “act as if.”
Republicans must act as if Rubio isn’t running, meaning some top-tier GOP candidate has to step up and run for the seat, all the while knowing that Rubio could very well ask for his seat back. Which Republicans would want to do that? Former Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford would be at the top of the list, as would former U.S. Rep. Connie Mack.
Weatherford is the darling of the Florida and national GOP and is destined for bigger things, although he’s more likely to run for governor in 2018 than mess around in this mess in 2016. Mack would have nothing to lose and could back-door himself into the U.S. Senate seat he’s always wanted.
It’s doubtful any of the statewide elected Cabinet members — Jeff Atwater, Pam Bondi, or Adam Putnam — would jump into Rubio’s roogoodoo, not because they don’t want to serve in the U.S. Senate (well, Putnam doesn’t) but because they don’t want to show their cards early, nor do they want to do anything to take away from their chances in 2018, when there will be a wide-open field running for governor.
As for the Democratic side of this equation, here’s where it gets interesting. The Democrats are actually more likely than not to field a candidate regardless of Rubio’s plans because, for whichever Dem decides to enter the race, it makes their case stronger against Rubio if he decides eventually to run for re-election.
The leading contenders under this scenario are U.S. Reps. Gwen Graham, Alan Grayson, Patrick Murphy, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
Scratch Graham from the list because she just won her seat and it looks like she’d like to build up her profile before plunging into a statewide race. Grayson is, well, Grayson and will energize the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, but he’s not a serious contender for statewide office. Especially not with the legal mess swirling around his personal life.
DWS is likely running regardless of who else is running, be it Rubio or any other Democrat.
As for Murphy, SaintPetersBlog is hearing that Murphy adviser and political genius Eric Johnson is urging him to run for the U.S. Senate in 2016.
But there’s one name out there for the Democrats that’s the most intriguing.
Charlie Crist.
That’s right, Crist, the man who has run for statewide office more times than Tom Brady has played in the Super Bowl.
Were Rubio not to seek re-election and if there is a wide-open field for his seat, why wouldn’t Crist — with his sky-high name ID and proven fundraising prowess — seek the U.S. Senate seat he’s sought twice before?
Crist might have some problems on his left flank beating Grayson and DWS in a Democratic primary, but if he did win, he’d have his clearest shot at a spot in the U.S. Senate since he was up double digits on Rubio in mid-2009 through early 2010.
Among the many knocks on Crist, one is that he’s lost three times running statewide. There’s no precedent for a candidate with that kind of record eventually winning. Cristworld will concede that there’s no arguing with this statistic, but what it will also say is Crist has only lost once as a Democrat. Plus, losing in the face of Rick Scott’s financial onslaught endeared him to many Democrats.
I’ve written before how I believed it was time for prominent Crist supporters to turn the page on Charlie and to stop revisiting 2014 or speculating about his political future, but Marco Rubio could reset the chessboard.
There might be one more run left for Charlie Crist.
Peter Schorsch is a new media publisher and political consultant based in St. Petersburg, Fla. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
