Final poll of St. Pete mayoral race gives Rick Kriseman a narrow lead over Rick Baker - Florida Politics

Final poll of St. Pete mayoral race gives Rick Kriseman a narrow lead over Rick Baker

There’s some good news and some bad news for incumbent Rick Kriseman in the final poll of St. Petersburg’s mayoral race.

First, the good news for him: He’s leading Baker 47.5 to 45.6 percent.

Now, the bad news or just be-careful-what-you-hope-for news: Baker was leading Kriseman in the final poll of the primary phase of this campaign (although that poll was not conducted as close to Election Day as this poll)

Still, this latest survey from St. Pete Polls does show Kriseman with his biggest lead in any public poll, up from the less-than-a-percentage-point lead the polls showed two weeks ago.

It also shows him with a substantial advantage lead (49 to 33 percent) with the city’s black voters. If those kind of numbers hold up, it will be a long night for Baker, who went into this race believing he could win sixty to seventy percent of the black vote versus Kriseman.

There is at least one number Baker can be excited about: among those who say they have already voted, he holds the slightest of leads, 48.5 to 47.6 percent. Of course, Baker also led with early voters during the primary, but was swamped by an Election Day surge from Kriseman supporters.

The poll surveyed 939 residents who have already voted or plan to vote in Tuesday’s election.

The poll also asked about the three City Council races up for grabs. The latest results mirror previous polls.

In District 2, Realtor Brandi Gabbard has a 47 to 29 percentage lead over local banker Barclay Harless in the race to succeed term-limited Jim Kennedy.

In District 4, incumbent Darden Rice is more than doubling up her tomato can opponent, Jerrick Johnston. She’s at 58 percent to his 23 percent.

And in District 6, where Justin Bean and Gina Driscoll are competing to win term-limited Karl Nurse’s seat, Driscoll leads Bean by 13 points, 45 to 32 percent.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Orlando Rising and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.
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