Andrew Learned, Michael Owen face tough battle for the future partisan makeup of HD 59

The open race in Florida House District 59 is one of the most important ones for both Florida Democrats and Republicans this November.

The seat opened when incumbent Rep. Adam Hattersley opted to suspend his reelection campaign and run for Florida’s 15th Congressional District, which he lost to investigative reporter Alan Cohn in the Aug. 18 Democratic primary.

His departure, stinging defeat aside, leaves the door open for Republicans to reclaim the seat Hattersley just took two years ago. And it’s a must-win for Democrats itching to claw their way back to an eventual majority in the Florida House.

That’s hard to do if they cede newly won seats back into GOP control, a possibility that also threatens in nearby Florida House District 72 where incumbent Rep. Margaret Good is challenging U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan.

The race will likely be competitive, with Democrat Andrew Learned leaning on his military record and experience as a small business owner to wage a moderate campaign that can reach voters from both parties.

Republican candidate Michael Owen, meanwhile, ran a conservative primary campaign, touting endorsements from Christian groups and the anti-abortion Florida Right to Life PAC. He has also spoken out against policies he says would “erase our history” and efforts to “demonize our men and women” in law enforcement, subtle nods against removing Confederate statues and the Defund the Police movement, respectively.

But he has a solid platform on which he can moderate his message. His top campaign priorities include improving local infrastructure and expanding education opportunities to promote more vocational skills and occupational licenses. Both are issues attractive on both sides of the aisle.

This is Owen’s first political campaign, potentially putting him at a strategic disadvantage against Learned, who ran unsuccessfully for CD 15 in 2018, losing to Kristen Carlson in that year’s Democratic primary.

One of Learned’s pitfalls that time around was negative campaigning in the primary, bashing Carlson’s fundraising strategy, which included donors from outside the district. Carlson’s campaign in turn used his criticism against him in a bitter back and forth, one political scientists note hurts the eventual nominee in a General Election.

Carlson indeed went on to lose the race to now outgoing U.S. Rep. Ross Spano.

Learned didn’t face a primary challenger this time around, so he enters the General Election without any primary baggage following him. He also carries insight from running a campaign just two years ago.

The race could be close.

Learned overwhelmingly leads in available cash, retaining about $81,000 in his campaign account as of Aug. 13. Owen, meanwhile, has just over $12,000 to play with.

However, Owen has showed he’s willing to aggressively fund his own campaign. He raised a little over $119,000 from outside donors, but added another $86,000 of his own money to fund his primary campaign. Whether he’s willing to continue reaching into his pockets remains to be seen, but if he is, the money race could quickly even out.

Further, the once conservative stronghold district now favors Democrats.

Democrats have 6,393 more registered voters than Republicans, a narrow margin considering there are a total of 118,906 registered voters in the Hillsborough County district.

Hattersley won the district by fewer than 2,000 votes in 2018. Two years prior, the district went for President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point, meaning it’s a seat in play for both parties.