Bob Sparks
The major Republican contenders came to Orlando this week at the invitation of Gov. Rick Scott. At Gov. Scott’s direction their presentations to the Economic Growth Summit were to be limited to the economy and jobs.
Seeing these candidates, or soon to be candidates, converging on Florida gives the feel of a campaign for the Republican nomination for president is already under way. We can expect all of those TV and radio ads, campaign rallies and, yes, all of those phone calls, right?
As ESPN’s Lee Corso says so often, “Not so fast, my friend.” The 2016 presidential campaign in Florida will be much different than in years past. Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have a lot to do with that.
In 2008 and 2012, Florida violated Republican National Committee (RNC) rules and jumped ahead of other states in the primary line. The stated goal was for Florida to “have a say” in who gains the nomination.
This tactic seemed to work in 2008. John McCain vaulted from his Florida victory to the nomination. The light penalties levied by the RNC were deemed worth it.
In 2012, the RNC whacked Florida for its hubris by reducing Florida’s delegation by half. Some, especially legislators whose actions brought about the RNC sanctions, argue the ends justified the means and Mitt Romney’s Florida victory propelled him to the nomination.
The rest of us believe winning half of the Florida delegates (the RNC stripped away the other half) did not have the intended effect. Some forget that former Sen. Rick Santorum continued to win primaries after Florida.
Next year, Florida will not go fifth or tenth or even fifteenth. As the tentative schedule now stands, 18 states (and possibly 20) will go before Florida casts ballots on March 15.
By the time Florida votes, more than 50 percent of delegates will have been awarded, including those from Texas and Georgia. Since the early voting states will award delegates based upon the number of votes candidates received, no big prize will likely be won, though Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will likely win a majority of his state’s delegates.
With that dynamic, Florida is in a much better position to be a kingmaker than in 2012. By waiting until March 15, the first day in which a state can award all delegates to the primary winner, Florida will create enormous momentum for the winner. Ohio also votes on that day.
Some are now openly wondering if one, or several, of the major players will front-load their campaigns and cede Florida to Bush or Rubio. To overcome two favorite sons and win this state, a significant amount or resources are required. Candidates will reasonably question the potential for a return on investment.
“I don’t think there’s a state we wouldn’t play in – other than maybe Florida, where Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are in some of the polls tied; and they are going to eat up a good amount of that financial advantage that Gov. Bush is going to have,” Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker told radio host Laura Ingraham. It is one thing to try and beat either one of Florida’s national figures, let alone both.
However, following his Tuesday remarks at the Economic Growth Summit, Walker backed away from those comments.
“If I didn’t think I would compete, I wouldn’t be here today,” he said.
Will Walker and fellow competitors actually run full campaigns or go through the motions? The latter is a distinct possibility. With Ohio Gov. John Kasich poised to enter the race, are there similar trepidations on running full campaigns in Ohio?
Not likely. We should expect far less reticence from the other candidates to mix it up with Kasich in his home state. His campaign account will be a few million dollars lighter than Bush and Rubio. Plus, there is only one of him to run against.
In recent history, Florida’s early primary date allowed most of the candidates to campaign here. Attrition will ensure that will not be the case in 2016, making it doubly tough for any outsider to defeat Bush or Rubio. After Florida, the field will be markedly reduced.
Now that Florida will truly be in a position to leave a mark on the GOP nominating process, the other camps should be concerned. Many ups and downs are ahead for the 2016 campaign.
Bush or Rubio cannot win the nomination by winning Florida, but if either one comes in second place, they will not be the nominee. Conversely, if both run at least respectably in early states, a Florida victory can create enough momentum to take them to the nomination.
The game for Florida’s delegates is now on until March 15. Who will be coming to play?
Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
