Steve Schale: Hillary Clinton should easily defeat Bernie Sanders in Florida

For the first time in a while, the Florida Democratic Primary will mean something.  For Bernie Sanders, it is a chance to prove he can win a big diverse state.  For Hillary Clinton, it is a chance to solidify her position as the party’s standard-bearer.

And unless something dramatic changes, Clinton will win Florida and firmly position herself as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee.

There are four things working in Clinton’s favor:

1. Diversity:  Between 35-40 percent of primary voters will be from communities of color.  A plurality will be African-American, though Hispanics and Caribbean voters will make up a sizable share.  Unless Sanders can find new appeal to communities of color, he’s starting way behind.
2. Voting Age:  The primary electorate in both parties is older. In New Hampshire, where Sanders defeated Clinton, the exit polls found about 50 percent of the electorate was over age 45.  In Florida, it was expected that as much as 80 percent of the electorate will be over age 50, and based on the early Vote By Mail returns (which are older than the population), that 80 percent target looks very likely.

In fact, Sanders’ sweet spot — voters under 35 — are making up less than 5 percent of the people who have voted so far, compared to the low 20s in New Hampshire.

3. Big Mo: Clinton has won several tough primaries in the early going, but as the election heads south, the confines get more friendly.  It is likely that by the time Florida votes, she will have won at least 20 of the 25 contests.  That is a train that Florida isn’t going to stop.
4. Her significant home-field advantage. If the Clintons had a third home state after Arkansas and New York, Florida would probably be it. Bill Clinton made his first trip here in 1981 at the invitation of Gov. Bob Graham to speak at the annual Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson dinner. The Clintons have been back many times.

In 1992, he brought the state into the realm of “battleground states” and in 2008, Hillary Clinton easily won the state’s primary.

That being said, let’s look at how the state should play out on the Democratic side:

1. Somewhere near 80 percent of our vote will be cast in four media markets.  Miami and Tampa will make up nearly equal shares.  If the black (in Florida, both African American and Caribbean) and Hispanic vote is high, Miami will edge Tampa.  If not, Tampa will edge Miami.  Orlando is close behind, and West Palm Beach will make up 13 to14 percent.  The percentage of our primary coming from Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties will approach 40 percent.
2. Of the remaining media markets, no one is likely to be much more than 5 percent of the total statewide vote.  Fort Myers, Tallahassee and Jacksonville will make up in the neighborhood of 5 percent, with the other three, Pensacola, Panama City and Gainesville adding up to another 5 percent or so.  There just aren’t big swaths of rural North Florida Democrats left, which is why our primary vote tends to be in the more urban counties.
3. Just as a comparison, the big four GOP markets will be Tampa, Orlando, Miami and Jacksonville, in that order, adding up to 70 percent or so of the vote.

“The I-10 Corridor” makes up about 22 percent of the GOP vote, and about 15 percent of ours.  They also have a larger slice coming from Southwest Florida, with Fort Myers comprising about 9 percent of their statewide vote, compared to 5 percent of ours.

4. People of color will make up between 35-40 percent of the vote.  Through the first full week of absentee ballot returns, that number is close to 35 percent, indicating we could be headed to closer to 40 percent, as African Americans are more likely to vote in person.

The total black vote will land between 20 to 25 percent of all Democratic primary vote, with the remainder split between Hispanics and others.  Hispanics, while making up a growing share of our general-election number, have tended to be a much smaller portion of the primary vote.

5. Because the Tampa area tends to report quickly, we will know by 7:05 p.m. where this thing is headed.

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Steven Schale is a Florida-based political, communications and government-relations strategist. He can reached at [email protected] Column courtesy of Context Florida.