Melissa Ross
Even though the election isn’t until November 2016, the prognosticating around North Florida is already well underway as State Attorney Angela Corey files for a third term representing Clay, Duval and Nassau counties in the state’s 4th Circuit.
The two questions political observers have are these:
Can the other filed candidate, former Assistant State Attorney Wes White, make it a race?
And, will anyone else throw their hat into that ring?
“Things are going great,” White told FloridaPolitics.com. “I’m continually surprised by the amount of grassroots support we’re getting.”
White said he’s attending every public function he can to raise his name recognition throughout the circuit. That’s sure to be a challenge for his nascent campaign because Corey is a familiar name and face both locally and nationally.
As to the influential North Florida donor class, the check writers who bankrolled new mayor Lenny Curry‘s successful campaign to unseat Alvin Brown?
“A lot of those people are waiting to see who else might jump in, and frankly they don’t want their names on a donor list: They’re concerned about potential repercussions,” said White, taking what some might interpret as a veiled swipe at Corey’s alleged reputation for vindictiveness (something the officeholder strongly denies.)
So, when it comes to the SAO race, who else might jump in?
One name commonly heard in North Florida legal circles as a possible contender is Melissa Nelson, a charismatic trial attorney and former prosecutor.
Nelson, a photogenic Republican and rising legal star, is well regarded by her peers, but sources familiar with her thinking say she has not yet decided whether to enter what’s sure to be a challenging and bruising race.
Corey won handily in her first run at the office in 2008 and had no opposition in 2012.
This time around, though, the dynamics are different.
“Generally an incumbent is in a good position to win, but she’s made enemies,” University of North Florida pollster Mike Binder said. “It’s going to be a tough race.”
Binder runs the school’s Public Opinion Research Laboratory. Its most recent poll on the race found 51 percent of Duval County registered voters disapproved of Corey’s performance.
“There’s an opportunity here for a challenger, if he or she can raise money,” Binder said. “Any time an incumbent is above 50 percent in disapproval, that’s a big impediment.”
Corey dismissed those poll numbers at her Tuesday re-election launch event at Jacksonville Landing, touting her tough stance against violent offenders.
Binder: “I think the people that support Corey, and there are many of them, are very pro law-and-order, ‘throw the book at ’em’ kind of folks. At the same time, there are those who question the way she’s charged youths as adults, and also the handling of the George Zimmerman and Michael Dunn cases. Those are the types of things that people will be looking at. And with all the talk of crime and prevention in our area, certainly there’s an opening for someone to come in and say ‘I have a better way.'”
Two key variables to watch in this race: whether well-heeled donors around North Florida, whose coffers and energies have been depleted by the Curry campaign, sign on to Corey’s re-election or throw their muscle behind a challenger.
Also: whether a token Democrat files for the race. That would close the Aug. 30 primary to Democrats and independents, (a time-honored campaign trick) and would presumably help Corey’s chances in November.
