Mitch Perry
Every part of the Sunshine State will soon feel the effects of the Florida Supreme Court’s ruling on congressional redistricting, but perhaps no region will see more upheaval than the I-4 Central Florida corridor.
The Florida Legislature returns for its second Special Session of 2015 next week for one purpose: to redraw eight congressional districts that the high court ruled last month violate the Fair Districts constitutional amendments. The amendments were passed in 2010 to require compact districts that don’t benefit incumbents or political parties. However, nearly all the state’s districts are expected to change to some extent.
No one can say for sure who other than Eric Lynn will be running in the CD 13 seat being vacated by Republican David Jolly next year. Jolly recently announced he will eschew re-election to the seat that he fought so hard to win just a year-and-a-half ago against Democrat Alex Sink.
The Pinellas County seat on the far western end of the I-4 corridor could see a potential heavyweight matchup involving former Gov. Charlie Crist vs. former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, though that’s still far from certain
Lynn entered the race this year expecting to challenge Jolly, and has kept a low-profile busying himself with raising money. His impressive second-quarter take of $400,000 appeared likely to scare off any Democratic party challengers, until the court ruled that the Legislature must redraw districts 13 and 14. It included the caveat that Kathy Castor’s Tampa based CD 14 seat can no longer wade into Pinellas County. While Crist has said he can be counted in if the Legislature includes his downtown condo in the new redrawing of CD 13, Baker has committed to nothing so far. An early poll, though, indicates it would be an extremely close race if he did get into the contest (based on a potential CD 13 map).
The only time that CD 14’s Congresswoman Castor had any energetic opposition in her Democratic-leaning seat was the year of the Tea Party insurgency of 2010, when Mike Prendergast was the Republican nominee. Despite that energy, Castor stomped Pendergast, winning by more than 19 percentage points. The district will undoubtedly become less Democratic friendly as she loses St. Petersburg in the new drawing, but it’s doubtful that Prendergast, now the state’s head of the Department of Veterans Affairs, or any Republican, will still find the district competitive.
Moving east is Dennis Ross’ CD 15 seat located in eastern Hillsborough and most of Polk County. Ross walloped Democrat Alan Cohn by 20 percentage points in November. Analysts say the district could become a little more Democratic-friendly, but nothing indicates that it will make it much more competitive.
The redrawing of Democrat Corrine Brown’s District 5 seat will ripple throughout Central Florida, and while it’s likely to affect Gwen Graham’s District 2 seat, it also quite likely could allow Daniel Webster’s District 10 seat to flip and go Democratic.
Now encompassing parts of Polk, Lake and Orange counties, Webster bested Democrat Val Demings in CD 10 by 3.4 percentage points in 2012. The district currently is a + 4 Republican. Analysts say a more compact District 10 will include the more Democratic friendly parts of central Orlando, possibly making it a bridge too far for Webster or any Republican to win.
Farther east is Alan Grayson’s Democratic-leaning District 9 seat, now consisting of southeast Orange and most of Osceola County. Its large Latino presence makes it a solid D seat, and on paper it could be an exciting and intense primary between state Sen. Darren Soto, activist and Grayson aide Susannah Randolph, and biochemist Dena Manning, a novice in the political arena and Grayson’s current paramour. Former state Rep. Ricardo Rangel and former Osecola County Democratic party chair Valleri Crabtree round out the field – so far.
