Matthew Isbell
When Judge Terry Lewis convenes his redistricting trial this month, there will be seven different maps to examine: three from the Legislature and four from the plaintiffs. Let’s discuss key differences in the maps being proposed with specific focus on the maps submitted by the plaintiffs and how they compare with the Legislature’s proposals.
Debate between House and Senate
The differences between the House and Senate’s final maps are minimal. Debate centers in the Orlando area and the Tampa Bay region.
The failure of the Legislature to come to an agreement revolves around the mistrust and animosity between the two chambers. It’s amazing so small an area derailed the whole process.
- You can view the House map here;
- You can view the Senate map here;
- The Senate actually proposed another potential map. Which can be seen here.
The Senate compromise map is just bizarre. The map destroys the rural nature of CD17, stretches CD9 from Orlando to Glades County, and makes other moves that made little sense. I see no scenario where it becomes law.
The Senate’s initial map is superior. The Senate better handled Hispanic voters in Central Florida. I wrote about this issue in POLITICO Florida. The key issue is that Hispanics are being unnecessarily split between CD10 and CD9. The Senate map still has some split but it does a better job of keeping Hispanics concentrated in CD9 where they can influence the primary. I wrote about how the Senate map fixes this issue in a separate POLITICO Florida article.
Although I prefer the Senate map, something closer to the House map will likely be chosen. The reasoning is fairly simple, the House map is largely drawn by staff with little legislative input (supposedly). Judge Lewis may find that argument appealing. It appears the plaintiffs likewise think the House map is likely to be chosen. All of their proposed amendments make changes to the House map while ignoring the Senate map.
A key point of debate for the plaintiffs are Districts 26 and 27.
During the redistricting session, the heavily Democratic area of Perrine (an African-American community) was moved from CD26 to CD27. That made CD26 less Democratic while the CD27, held by Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, became bluer. Since Ros-Lehtinen is always safe for re-election, and CD26 U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo is more vulnerable, questions of gerrymandering arose. I also wrote about that in POLITICO Florida. Every plaintiff map moves Perrine back into CD26.
I’ll compare each plaintiff map to the House map one by one.
House map compared to first coalition map
The coalition plaintiffs (League of Women Voters, Council of La Raza, and Common Cause) propose three different maps. The first map makes the most changes to the House proposal.
The proposal makes changes to several districts across South Florida.
District 20
District 20, the African-American seat held by Alcee Hastings, sees key changes. The district loses an appendage it had in Palm Beach, loses part of its central-Broward appendage (both contain African-Americans), but then picks up eastern Miramar from the 25th and 24th.
The district also sheds less African-American precincts on its border, losing much of Sunrise. The district retains its heavily Democratic nature and would remain safe for Hastings. The African-American VAP remains about 50 percent. The connection to Miramar is unpopulated Everglades land.
District 21
District 21 sees very small changes. It takes in the appendage from CD20 and trades some other precincts to even the population out. The district remains Democratic.
District 22
District 22 has some modest changes, but the overall nature of the district remains the same. The district takes in some African-Americans in the Central Florida appendage and loses the city of Plantation.
The district becomes slightly more Democratic thanks to taking in African-American voters and losing a modestly Democratic city.
District 23
The 23rd district takes in Plantation and Sunrise while losing coastal precincts further south.
The district remains solidly Democratic.
District 24
District 24, the African-American seat held by Fredrica Wilson, loses African-American voters in Miramar largely to CD20.
The district goes from 54 percent Black VAP to 50 percent. The district remains heavily Democratic and Wilson’s only worry would be a primary.
District 25
CD25 trades precincts with the 20th, 24th and 27th. The biggest changes are made to allow the 20th to stretch into Miramar in South Broward, while it regains population by taking precincts from the 27th farther into Miami-Dade.
The District’s loss of heavily Democratic precincts, especially those in Miramar, take the district from 48 percent Obama down to 44 percent. The district becomes a less attractive Democratic target under this map.
District 26
District 26th takes in Perrine and several south-Dade precincts, becoming much more Democratic in the process.
The precincts taken in are Democratic while the ones it loses are more divided. That gives the district a more solidly Democratic footing compared with the House map.
District 27
The 27th sees major changes. It loses Perrine and several southern precincts to the 26th and loses areas to the 25th; meanwhile it takes in areas the 23rd lost on the coast.
The district becomes less Democratic, dropping about 1.4 percent in the presidential race but only dropping a 10th of 1 percent in the governor’s race. Under the House map, Obama got 54.3 percent to 51.5 percent, a gap of 2.8. The gap under these lines is down to 1.6. Many of precincts the district looses, especially around Hialeah, saw much larger drops between Obama and Crist. The removal of those precincts reduced the overall gap between the two Democratic candidates. The district will continue to be out of Democratic hands until it becomes open.
House map compared to 2nd coalition map
The second map by the plaintiffs is much simpler. Changes are reduced to Districts 26 and 27.
The proposal moves heavily Democratic, African-American Perrine back into the 26th while taking Hispanic precincts farther North and putting them in the 27th.
The trading of the two areas, one heavily Democratic and the other leaning Republican, makes the 26th more Democratic than under the House map while the 27th becomes more Republican; having narrowly voted for Scott in 2014.
House map compared with 3rd coalition map
The third map by the coalition is an alternative method of giving Perrine back to the 26th. The map just trades out other areas to even the population.
The makeup of the districts is essentially the same as under the second coalition map. The 26th becomes more Democratic while the 27th becomes more Republican.
House map compared with ROMO map
The final plaintiff map comes from a group of Democratic-leaning voters. Their map is commonly referred to as the ROMO map. That proposal also focuses on South Florida, making changes to the 26th and 27th while maintaining districts 21 and 22 as parallel, rather than stacked.
Regarding Districts 21 and 22, the proposal would reinstate the north-south coastal districts and the north-south inland districts.
It wouldn’t change the districts’ partisan nature much; both remaining Democratic. The proposal would be a sigh of relief for Lois Frankel and Ted Deutch, who would no longer be drawn into the same district.
Meanwhile, down in Miami-Dade, several precincts get traded around.
The biggest change, again, is Perrine getting moved back into the 26th. This makes the 26th more Democratic but the 27th becomes more Republican than under any other proposed map.
Conclusions
It appears that most of the debate is focused on South Florida. Districts 26 and 27 still remain a key point of debate, and the issue will be fleshed out in good detail during the trial. The different plaintiff maps only nudge the partisan makeup of the congressional lines compared with the House or Senate plans.
The chart below compares presidential and gubernatorial numbers across all different plans.
While all plaintiff maps make the 26th more Democratic, some reduce the Democratic edge in the 27th. The changes to 27 aren’t a factor now because of Ros-Lehtinen’s popularity, but when the seat opens it will be a different story. Overall, though, both the 26th and 27th remain Obama districts under any proposed map. The changes proposed, with the exception of the coalition’s first proposal, are fairly minor and concentrated in small, dense areas.
While the House and Senate may have a bigger court debate over Hillsborough and Orange County, it appears the plaintiffs will largely be arguing over a handful of precincts in Miami-Dade.
However, as the different numbers show, in super-dense South Florida, a handful of precincts can dramatically alter results.
Originally published on Matt Isbell’s site MCIMaps.com.
