On Marco Rubio and the early states

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Counter to the POLITICO Caucus, but in agreement with The Washington Post‘s James Hohmann, I think Marco Rubio fared poorly in Tuesday’s GOP presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas, so much so that by week’s end it will be clear that he “lost.”

I certainly don’t buy Mike Allen‘s argument that “Rubio is the Obama of 2008.” Hyperbole like that reminds me of when NBA reporters would compare to Kobe Bryant to Michael Jordan. Like Bryant, Rubio is very, very, very good. But he’s not Jordanesque as Obama was in 2008.

Actually, the pundit probably most right about Rubio is Joe Scarborough, who this week asked, “Where on Earth is Marco Rubio.”

“Can I ask a question about Marco Rubio,” Scarborough asked rhetorically. “They’re mad at him in New Hampshire because he doesn’t go there enough. They’re mad at him in Iowa because he doesn’t go there enough. They’re mad at him in Washington D.C. — in the Senate — because he doesn’t show up for votes, he’s not there enough. I saw a headline: ‘Marco Rubio spotted in the Capitol.'”

POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo, who rarely misses an opportunity to defend his Miami brethren, shot back yesterday at Scarborough in his Playbook, writing, “-Where isn’t Marco Rubio? ‘On Morning Joe’ — ever — which explains some of the questioning …”

Caputo might be right about Scarborough’s motives, but Scarborough’s right on the facts.

Consider …

Rubio’s ground game in Iowa — “Rubio weak ground game angers Iowa Republicans” via the National Review:

“In recent conversations with nearly a dozen unaffiliated Iowa GOP veterans, a consensus has emerged across the party’s ideological spectrum: The state’s caucusgoers are interested in Rubio, but his infrequent appearances and paltry field operation leave lingering doubts as to whether he is interested in them.”

Rubio’s ground game in New Hampshire — “Marco Rubio’s N.H. surge is riddled with doubts” via The Washington Post:

“Ten GOP candidates have spent more days in New Hampshire this year than Rubio so far, according to a tally from WMUR-TV. Among the top tier of Republican candidates, only retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has spent less time in the Granite State. … A review by The Boston Globe found that Rubio’s staff remains small compared to other top campaigns. He has seven paid aides in New Hampshire — a size more in line with what struggling candidates have.”

And don’t get me started on Rubio’s voting record in the Senate.

Rubio’s hopes of winning the GOP nomination rest squarely on his ability to “win” events like last night’s debate (while winning the affections of older white billionaires keen on taking Young Marco under their wings). Continued performances like the one he gave in Vegas might keep Rubio to where has spent most of this campaign — the bottom of the top tier/top of the second tier.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.



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