Brit oddsmaker on 2016: Palin helps Trump, hurts Cruz, Hillary still favored to win it all

Saying her endorsement “threatens to turn the Iowa caucus on its head,” British oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty says Sarah Palin‘s endorsement of Donald Trump is taking the edge off his strategy of putting many of his chips on Ted Cruz to take the GOP nomination for president.

Krishnamurty is a professional “punter” with the sports betting firm Betfair. Across the pond, there aren’t strict regulations that limit betting on politics, so Krishnamurty has developed quite an eye (and a wallet) betting on our American elections.

As he boasted to POLITICO, his track record is impressive. Why? An ocean away, Krishnamurty is data-driven and objective: he has no dog in the fight, and he’s betting simply to make money. There’s no motivation quite like cold, hard cash.

For the record, the Brit bettor and his firm believe Hillary Clinton is a slight favorite to win the 2016 presidential race, at 53 percent.

And Krishnamurty and Betfair still rate Trump at a 46% chance to win the Republican nomination.

But Palin’s endorsement has him hedging his bets on Texas Senator Ted Cruz, somewhat.

“Cruz can still count on a swath of endorsements from religious leaders and Conservative talk show hosts,” writes Krishnamurty at his blog, The Political Gambler.

“Glenn Beck, another hero of the insurgent Right, is onside. So too Iowa’s most prominent evangelical, Bob Vander Plaats. However, this remains a big blow to the Cruz strategy. His plan was to win Iowa and carry momentum forward through several early voting Southern states, where he and Trump were in the ascendancy. With Palin on the ticket, energizing the base and getting them out to caucuses, Trump now looks a much more formidable opponent in these states.

Indeed, my long range plan having backed Cruz at 25.00 and upwards for the nomination was to sit tight until after Super Tuesday. But after Palin’s intervention, I’ve banked some profit and removed all risk by laying Cruz at 6.00.”