Peter Schorsch
As we noted in both salt shaker tests on the two recent Florida polls (Quinnipiac and AIF polls), the method used by Quinnipiac likely favors an outsider insurgent.
Why is that?
Quinnipiac asked randomly dialed Floridians to indicate first whether or not they were a registered voter, then which party they belonged to and then – this is the crux – whether or not they intended to vote.
We know, with unquestioned certainty, that respondents exaggerate their propensity to vote. So who is likely to do that? Those nonvoters who are enthusiastic about an outsider candidate
Donald Trump is that outsider candidate – and so is Bernie Sanders.
As we saw in the Q-PAC poll, they oversampled younger voters and when we compared the Q-PAC poll to the AIF poll (which DID use actual GOP voters who had an actual history of voting in primaries) we found Trump’s lead tighten significantly.
So … if Q-PAC oversampled younger non-voters and that is where the Bern is coming from, what does it say that Q-PAC has Bernie 26 points down?
It means the Bern is over.
Yes, I am calling it.
One comment
John
February 26, 2016 at 1:46 pm
The problem with Florida is that it is a semi closed primary on the Democratic side. In order to vote for Bernie first time voters and independents had to be registered as Democrats 30 days before the day of the primary. The deadline already passed and alot of those people didn’t know the restrictive rules so they won’t be able to vote now even if they want to. We need to change all of these restrictive rules thar only contribute to low voter turnout. Then again we know the establishment is not interested in high turnout so Unless someone like Bernie gets elected nothing is likely to change anytime soon people will continue getting screwed.
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