The ultimate case against 'Marco Rubio for Governor'

Despite his impending book tour with its planned trips to Iowa and Nevada, an increasing number of signs point to U.S. Senator Marco Rubio forgoing a full-scale presidential run, seeking re-election in 2016 and running for Florida governor in 2018.

In early January, devout Rubio-watcher Marc Caputo of Politico wrote that there is “increasing political chatter that Rubio is well-positioned to run for governor in 2018 … And then, if he wins, there’s a good chance Gov. Rubio will run for president — 2020 would be attractive if a beatable Democrat is president. The next presidential year, 2024, an open-seat year, would be more likely. He’ll only be 52.”

The Tampa Bay Times‘ Adam Smith doubled down on this analysis, writing today that GOP activists’ recent snubbing of Gov. Rick Scott’s choice for chair of the Florida GOP “could be the first big power play by Rubio’s political team to position him to run for governor in 2018.”

Were he to run for governor, Rubio would likely face a field of formidable opponents for the GOP nomination, including Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, former House Speaker Will Weatherford, and whichever Rick Scott-like billionaire who decides he’d like to occupy the Governor’s Mansion. Beyond that, Rubio would have to defeat the Democratic nominee, which could be Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham or U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy.

Yet, no matter who Rubio runs against, no obstacle to him becoming governor may be larger than the scenario which would present itself were he actually to win in 2018.

To run for governor, Rubio, as a federal officeholder does not have to “resign-to-run,” but if he wins in 2018, he would need to resign his U.S. Senate seat before assuming the Office of Governor. The next governor will take office at midnight on January 8th, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in January 2019. Therefore, theoretically, Rubio must resign no later than 11:59 p.m. on January 7th.

In that minute, guess who gets to fill Rubio’s seat?

That’s right, Rick Scott.

Article IV, Section 1(f) states that it is the responsibility of the governor to appoint Rubio’s successor upon his resignation. Florida politicos are familiar with this appointment process because then-Governor Charlie Crist made a mockery of it after Mel Martinez resigned in 2009 from the U.S. Senate.

If the idea of Scott getting to appoint someone to the U.S. Senate isn’t frightening enough, consider that Scott could very well appoint himself to the world’s most exclusive club. After all, Scott flirted with running for the Senate in 2010 before deciding to run for governor.

What better way to preserve his legacy — and continue to push his scandalous turn as CEO of HCA down a few paragraphs in his obituary — then to be a governor and a U.S. Senator? What’s to keep him from writing another eight-figure check, like he has done in two previous campaigns, in 2020 to all but guarantee his re-election?

And, after having served two-terms as governor and nearly six years as a U.S. Senator, why wouldn’t billionaire Rick Scott run for president in 2024?

For opponents of Scott, the prospect of him serving beyond January 2019 may indeed be a nightmare scenario.

For Marco Rubio, it may be the ultimate reason why some voters, even those who generally support him, may not vote for him if he runs for governor in 2018.