Guest AuthorReporters and political operatives breathlessly tell us almost daily what the polling numbers are in the all-important governor’s race.
Interestingly, the numbers are always bouncing around — and they should.
That’s because essentially what we are seeing in the collective sense are tracking polls that provide us with an almost daily barrage of numbers.
Well-funded campaigns have used tracking polls for decades to tell their candidate how they are doing on a daily basis.
The difference is that in tracking polling, the campaign is using the same pollster. His methodology will be the same with regard to the make-up of the electorate.
The demographic breakdown of voters is key to any poll because a pollster can weight more Democrats, or more Republicans, or more independent voters as they see fit. It depends on his outlook of the split of partisan voters that he believes will go to the polls on Nov. 4.
But no one has written much about the consequences of the election if, in fact, Democratic presumed-nominee Charlie Crist actually gets elected.
And this is something that Floridians need to contemplate as they go to the polls in both August and November.
National polling clearly indicates that Americans feel that the country is going in the wrong direction. That’s because we have divided government.
Divided government isn’t inherently bad because we’ve had it before. The problem with divided government now is that because of legalized gerrymandering, congressional districts are either very blue or very red.
There are very few purple districts in the country. In fact, noted political scientist professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia tells us that out of 435 congressional seats, only about 10 percent are really up for grab.
(Note to Eric Cantor: you weren’t supposed to lose!)
Nevertheless, divided government can work, and has worked in the past when elected officials worked together to compromise, not their principles, but along the margins to get the people’s business done.
That doesn’t happen anymore. And it’s why D.C. is unable to address our national priorities.
Well, if Charlie gets elected, you’re going to see this malfunction junction arrive in Tallahassee with a vengeance.
It’s not simply that Charlie is a former Repub who’s now a Dem because that happens occasionally.
No, it’s the way that Charlie switched that angers conservative Republican voters.
Since the Legislature will stay decidedly Republican, in both the Senate and House, divided government would become a reality for the first time since Republican Gov. Bob Martinez was elected in 1986.
What this means is that everything that a Gov. Crist would want to accomplish would be stymied by the Republican Legislature.
In fact, for Crist to accomplish anything, he’d have to convince a recalcitrant Legislature that he really didn’t want it! And the Legislature would have to believe him, which is another stretch.
Tallahassee would become a mini-me version of Washington D.C. That’s a scary thought because like it or not, government has worked enough to make things happen in Florida.
Legislation is passed and budgets are balanced. Despite the expected hiccups between the philosophical differences of the Senate and House, government in Tallahassee has generally worked well.
The legislative and executive branches co-exist much as they have done when Democrats ran both branches. Oh, they argue and have spats, but in the end they get the people’s business done.
If Charlie gets elected, expect to see Washington antics in our state capital.
It won’t be pretty and our state’s recovery could very well stall, just like our national economy has been whipsawed because the national politicians can’t get their act together.
I expect DC to be incompetent because we can’t seem to figure out how to work together for our collective best interests.
I surely hope that we don’t get the same disease in Tallahassee.
Barney Bishop III is the President & CEO of Barney Bishop Consulting, LLC. Barney can be reached at [email protected]Column courtesy of Context Florida.
