Peter Schorsch
Sunburn – The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics.
By Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster, Mitch Perry, Jim Rosica, and Scott Powers.
EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS: OUTSIDE GROUPS HAVE POURED $24 MILLION INTO FLORIDA’S U.S. SENATE RACE, MOSTLY AIDING MARCO RUBIO
Outside groups have poured nearly $25 million into the general election for Florida’s U.S. Senate race, helping Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio by more than a three-to-one rate over Democratic challenger U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy.
The latest campaign finance reports available through the Federal Election Commission covering the general election through Tuesday show groups such as the Republican Senate Leadership Fund and the National Republican Senatorial Committee each have spent more than $5 million on negative advertising against Murphy, while the Democrat’s biggest boost has come in $2.4 million worth of attack ads on Rubio from the Senate Majority PAC.
Together, outside groups have spent $24.8 million through Tuesday on the U.S. Senate general election in Florida, according to the FEC.
Nationally, Florida is nowhere near among the top states when it comes to outside spending for U.S. Senate elections. Including money spent in the primaries, outside groups have spent $31.3 million in Florida. Such groups have spent more than $80 million in Pennsylvania and more than $50 million in each of New Hampshire, Ohio, and Nevada. Florida ranks fifth in outside spending for the U.S. Senate.
Overall, such groups have spent $17.8 million in Florida this fall bashing Murphy and $1.4 million supporting Rubio; while others have spent $4.9 million bashing Rubio and $752,000 supporting Murphy.
Five groups, the Republican Leadership Fund, $6.5 million; the NRSC, $5 million; American Future Fund, $2.6 million; Americans For Prosperity, $2.2 million; and the National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action, $1.7 million; have invested more than $1 million apiece to help re-elect Rubio in the general election. He’s also received $814,000 from The LIBRE Initiative, $105,000 from Concerned Veterans for America, and several other assists, even $1,147 in support from the Virgin Islands Republican Party.
After the Senate Majority PAC, Murphy’s big backers include the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees, which has provided $1.4 million to the race; AFT Solidarity, $778,000; Immigrant Voters Win PAC, $289,000; the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, $260,000; and United We Can, $139,000.
RUBIO STANDS BY DONALD TRUMP AFTER TAPE via Patricia Mazzei of the Miami Herald – “I ran against Donald Trump. And while I respect that voters chose him as the GOP nominee, I have never hesitated to oppose his policies I disagree with,” Rubio said in a statement. “And I have consistently rejected his offensive rhetoric and behavior. I disagree with him on many things, but I disagree with his opponent on virtually everything. I wish we had better choices for President. But I do not want Hillary Clinton to be our next President. And therefore my position has not changed.” Rubio denounced the tape after its publication in The Washington Post, calling Trump’s remarks “impossible to justify.”
Rubio’s Democratic opponent, Jupiter Rep. Patrick Murphy, spent the weekend demanding that Rubio disavow Trump, accusing him of “cowardice” for remaining silent. “Marco Rubio stands for nothing but his own pursuit of power,” Murphy said in a statement after Rubio upheld his Trump endorsement … facing the prospect of attending public events where he would be hounded with Trump questions, Rubio’s campaign issued the statement maintaining his endorsement. A Rubio campaign source, however, told the Miami Herald that the senator “will not be going to any presidential campaign events” for Trump or his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. “Marco’s totally focused on his own race,” the source said.
THIS IS WHY RUBIO STILL ENDORSES DONALD TRUMP via Brian Crowley of the Crowley Political Report – No one has ever accused Rubio of being one of Florida’s – or the nation’s – most courageous politicians. Like most, Rubio first does what is best for Rubio. And right now for him, there is more risk in not endorsing Trump than in abandoning him. Clearly, Rubio can’t stomach Trump. His feeble excuse for continuing to endorse Trump is trapped in the silly putty logic that suggests as troublesome as Trump is, Rubio is even more troubled by Hillary Clinton’s policies. Nonsense. Rubio is simply trapped by the fear that if he dumps Trump, he will tick off a lot of conservative Florida Republicans who might decide to punish Rubio by skipping the U.S. Senate race on the ballot – or, though less likely, voting for … Murphy. Trump will do very well with voters in the Panhandle and other parts of North and Central Florida. Trump will also do well in Southwest Florida. If the Senate race is a close one, it would not take too many Republicans deserting Rubio to put the race in question. Why take the risk?
LEFT-LEANING GROUPS TARGET RUBIO FOR ABORTION STANCE via Christine Sexton of POLITICO Florida – Two left-leaning political groups have targeted Rubio for his “offensive comments” about abortion access for Zika-infected women … Progress Florida, working with For Florida’s Future, is asking Floridians to sign an online petition that reads, in part, “no matter what your personal opinion of abortion is, it is not your place to decide for someone else whether she should become a parent. We stand with Florida women and for reproductive rights for all Floridians.” Rubio has stated that a pregnant woman infected with Zika shouldn’t have the right to an abortion even if doctors confirm that the child would be born with a severe brain defect … The petition reads in part, “For too long, Florida policymakers have enacted obstacle after obstacle to prevent women from exercising their reproductive rights. Whether it’s arbitrarily contrived waiting periods, burdensome requirements on abortion clinics, patients and their doctors, or efforts to defund organizations such as Planned Parenthood that provide abortion care, enough is enough. These restrictions are medically unnecessary and designed only to restrict access to abortion care and shame women. Rubio and Florida’s other anti-abortion politicians are out of sync with the American public, who believe that women facing a Zika diagnosis should have access to all options – including abortion.”
HACKED EMAILS SHOW HOW RUBIO’S PRESIDENTIAL RUN WORRIED HILLARY CLINTON CAMPAIGN via Marc Caputo and Darren Samuelsohn of POLITICO Florida – “I’m beginning to worry more about Rubio than the others. He’s playing this very smart – only one who didn’t duck like a chicken shit on the Q of whether POTUS loves America,” Joel Benenson emailed colleagues Feb. 23, 2015, according to a trove of hacked Clinton-related emails published by the group WikiLeaks. The email, one of a number of internal campaign correspondences concerning Rubio, showed just how much the Cuban-American lawmaker from West Miami vexed the campaign – and the lengths they wanted to go to so that Republican candidates like him were beaten by easier opponents such as Donald Trump. In this early email, Benenson noted that Rubio was better suited in the GOP primary than his one-time mentor, former Gov. Jeb Bush. But Rubio also managed to broadcast centrist appeal. “He has stronger right wing cred than Jeb and he’s finding a way to the middle enough for now and he will be the most exciting choice to Republicans. Could pose a real threat with Latinos etc.,” Benenson continued, noting this musing was “Just my anxiety thought of the day.” But Clinton campaign adviser Mandy Grunwald downplayed the threat from Rubio. “He’s very inspiring at his best,” she acknowledged. “Feels kind of like a light weight in a lot of interviews – but I take your point.”
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IS THE DSCC INSANE?
Up until a few weeks ago, one could argue that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had been doing a reasonably good job in the Sunshine State.
One could even make the point that in a presidential year (one most likely to bring a D pickup) the DSCC had positioned themselves pretty well to take back Rubio’s seat.
It began with a few elbows to the side of Alan Grayson’s head and continued with the strong centrist positioning of Murphy.
By most accounts, Florida was in a relatively strong position, at a minimum, to compete for this highly prized U.S. Senate seat.
With the GOP presidential nominee bottoming out, thanks to an awful debate performance – as well as his “is this mic on?” eye-opener – the situation could only get better for Murphy.
Add to that a disclosure that Trump’s companies traded with Cuba, and there should be a noticeable down-ballot impact turning out a core South Florida voting constituency.
One would think that the Rubio versus Murphy race is in play, with a Murphy victory more than just an academic possibility.
With a statewide polling average (according to RealClearPolitics.com) showing the better known Marco Rubio at only 2 points above the lesser known Murphy (Rubio is still below 50 percent), one would also think the DSCC smells blood and is preparing to pounce.
One would think.
Over the past week, there have been developing reports that national Democrats are walking away from Murphy.
That makes absolutely no sense.
For starters, helping keep Murphy afloat helps the top of the ticket. And while this may be shockingly obvious, it needs to be said: If HRC wins Florida, she is POTUS.
Helping the undercard has an up-ballot effect, although not a large one.
It’s not like I am suggesting they support a down-ballot candidate in a deep red state.
Furthermore, help could be nested in a few swing congressional seats to (at least) weaken Paul Ryan’s grip on the House. It would be money very well spent.
Oh, and did I mention, they could also help make Patrick Murphy a U.S. Senator?
So with a close U.S. Senate race, a few potential congressional pickups and the big electoral college swing-state prize … the DSCC walks away.
In my not-so-humble opinion; that is insane.
ASSIGNMENT EDITORS: Murphy will hold a press conference at 11:30 a.m. at Ember Restaurant, 42 W. Central Blvd. in Orlando. Murphy will be joined by Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, congressional hopeful Val Demings, and Jason Lindsay, the executive director of Pride Fund to End Gun Violence. Media is asked to RSVP to [email protected].
— Back to the top of the ballot —
HILLARY CLINTON: IF WE WIN FLORIDA, WE WIN THE ELECTION via Nolan McCaskill of POLITICO – “We need your help. Florida is the key,” Clinton said in an interview with gospel radio host Bishop Victor Curry on Miami’s WMBM-AM 1490. “If we win Florida, there’s no way my opponent can win. That’s why he’s gonna be in Florida today. He knows that.” Trump … seemed to be more focused on challenging House Speaker Paul Ryan than Clinton, repeatedly tweeting attacks at the highest elected Republican official in the country, who told his conference … that he would no longer defend the GOP nominee after a tape leaked Friday in which the real estate mogul is heard making incredibly crude comments about sexually assaulting women with impunity because of his celebrity. Even so, Clinton urged voters to turn out in Florida, warning that Trump is still trying to win the White House. “Despite all of the terrible things he has said and done, he is still trying to win this election and we cannot be complacent,” Clinton said. “We cannot rest. Do not grow weary while doing good. That applies to this election as well as, you know, to our lives and our communities and our faith.” Clinton leads Trump by 2.4 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of state polls.
CLINTON BRINGS IN AL GORE AS CLOSER ON CLIMATE CHANGE via Kathleen Hennessey and Catherine Lucey of The Associated Press – Gore laid out the environmental stakes of the presidential race in stark terms during a campaign stop for Clinton … arguing that electing her opponent would lead to “climate catastrophe” … Gore served as a closer for Clinton on climate change as the Democratic candidate seeks to appeal to activists and to young people, who consider this a key issue. “The choice in this election is extremely clear. Hillary Clinton will make solving the climate crisis a top national priority,” Gore said, before issuing a strong warning about Trump. “Her opponent, based on the ideas that he has presented, would take us toward a climate catastrophe.” Gore’s history with Florida, the ultimate swing state, lent extra weight to his appeal to get out and vote.
Gore won the popular vote in the 2000 presidential election, but lost the presidency to George W. Bush after a lengthy Florida recount and a shocking Supreme Court decision. “Your vote really, really, really counts,” he told the crowd, which responded by chanting, “You won!” Clinton, meanwhile, vigorously emphasized her plans to develop more clean energy, reduce fossil fuel production and build more weather-resistant infrastructure. She also continued her attacks on Trump, who has called climate change a “hoax” and said he would renegotiate the Paris Climate Agreement, an international treaty designed to curb the rise in global temperatures. “We cannot risk putting a climate denier in the White House,” Clinton said.
MAC STIPANOVICH: ‘I’M VOTING FOR CLINTON’ via Lynn Hatter of WFSU – Stipanovich has long opposed Trump. Back in May he penned an open letter to his fellow Republicans urging them to do the same. Now Stipanovich is going a step further: “In case you didn’t know, I just said something I’ve never said before. I said I was going to vote for Hilary Clinton,” he said. The Florida Republican strategist is among hundreds of party loyalists now backing the Democratic presidential nominee. In August former Republican Party adviser Sally Bradshaw announced she’d vote for Clinton if the race is close. Bradshaw even changed her registration from Republican to independent. Stipanovich says he’s also casting a vote for Rubio because he thinks it’s important Republicans keep the U.S. Senate. Rubio has joined a chorus of Republican voices denouncing Trump’s comments in the video but has stopped short of withdrawing his endorsement of the GOP presidential nominee. Stipanovich says Rubio’s reluctance to withdraw that endorsement while criticizing Trump “is just beyond disappointing, it’s demoralizing.”
FORECAST UPDATE: WOMEN ARE DEFEATING DONALD TRUMP via Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com – A series of national polls … showed Clinton leading Trump by margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points — except for the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which defiantly continues to show Trump up by 2 points … For the time being, Clinton’s lead is holding at about 6 percentage points in our polls-only model, which gives her an 84 percent chance of winning the White House. Clinton’s chances are 80 percent in our polls-plus forecast. But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic. It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to … actually, there’s no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, you’d have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnson’s 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it. The PRRI poll is an outlier for showing quite so large a gender gap, however. Clinton is doing 10 points better among women than among the electorate overall. So we’ll add 10 points to her current polls-only margin in every state to forecast her performance if women were the only ones who could vote. In addition to the states where Clinton is already leading Trump, that would put her ahead in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and the 2nd Congressional Districts iin Maine and Nebraska. Clinton would win 458 electoral votes to just 80 for Trump.
TRUMP URGES FLORIDIANS TO VOTE 20 DAYS AFTER ELECTION DAY via Cristiano Lima of POLITICO – The Republican nominee urged Florida residents at a Panama City rally Tuesday night to register and turn out the vote come Election Day on November 28, instead of the actual date of November 8. “There’s never been anything like this so go and register,” Trump said. “Make sure you get out and vote, November 28.”
LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF FLORIDA FILES OWN SUIT OVER VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE via Florida Politics – Its complaint, filed in federal court in Tallahassee Tuesday afternoon, is in addition to action taken by the Florida Democratic Party. “The Democrats did a great job, but we had additional points we wanted to make,” said Pamela Goodman, the organization’s president. As one example, the League’s complaint mentions new U.S. citizens-to-be who were “scheduled to be naturalized on Oct. 7 (and) had their swearing-in ceremonies postponed because of the hurricane … These individuals, who would have had time to register as first-time voters upon naturalization, are now precluded from being able to access the franchise.” U.S. District Judge Mark Walker already has extended the deadline—which had been Tuesday—to 5 p.m. Wednesday. He may extend it even further. The League is asking the court to extend to next Tuesday, Oct. 18.
ALMOST 50,000 VOTE-BY-MAIL BALLOTS HAVE BEEN RETURNED via Florida Politics – Tuesday’s tally, exactly 48,331, was posted on the state’s Division of Elections website. That includes ballots to service members and others outside the country. Registered Republicans lead in voted ballots to Democrats by 21,027 to 18,421, a gap of 2,606. Other party and no-party voters have returned another 8,883 ballots. Pinellas far outpaces all other counties, with 12,014 voted ballots having been returned, the website shows. In second place is Orange County with 4,318 ballots, and Collier is third with 4,200.
DAYS UNTIL: First day of early voting – 16; Election Day – 26; first Legislative Organization Session – 40; premiere of Rogue One: A Star Wars Story – 64; start of 2017 Legislative Session – 145.
GEORGE SOROS-BACKED GROUP ALREADY PUTTING NEARLY $1M BEHIND HISPANIC TURNOUT EFFORT via Matt Dixon of POLITICO Florida – Immigrant Voters Win FL has been given $960,000 from the national super PAC Immigrant Voters Win … Soros had pledged $5 million to the super PAC and has so far given them $3 million. The Florida arm of the national group is focused on turning out Hispanic voters that don’t regularly vote, or what are known as “low propensity voters.” So far, the Florida organization has spent $757,656, mostly with Terra Strategies, an Iowa-based firm that specializes in canvassing. The group is supporting Clinton, Murphy, and Democratic congressional candidate Joe Garcia, who is running against Republican U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo. The group is going door-to-door opposing Trump and Rubio. Hispanic voters comprise more than 15 percent of Florida’s registered voters and are seen as key to winning the state, Trump is faring poorly among Hispanic voters … particularly unpopular in South Florida, a region that is home to one of the nation’s largest concentration of Hispanics.
ACTOR MARK RUFFALO TWEETS AGAINST SOLAR AMENDMENT 1 via Bruce Ritchie of POLITICO Florida – Ruffalo posted a tweet urging voters in Florida to cast their ballots against Amendment 1, the solar energy measure. Amendment 1 … would preserve a right for residents to own or lease solar devices, while prohibiting customers who don’t have solar from subsidizing those who do have them. The proposal faces opposition from environmental groups and others who say the measure is misleading and that it will lead to policies that will hurt solar. “It will kill solar in the Sunshine State! No no no!” Ruffalo tweeted … He is an Oscar-winning actor and social activist. He was retweeting a post by Climate Reality (@climatereality) arguing that Amendment 1 “actively misleads consumers” and makes it harder for solar models to expand in the state. Climate Reality was founded by former Vice President Al Gore. Sarah Bascom, a spokeswoman for Consumers for Smart Solar, said Ruffalo’s “claim is disproved by a plain reading of Amendment 1’s straightforward language, by the Supreme Court’s approval of it and by an extensive review of it by state policy and financial experts.”
SOME FLORIDA REPUBLICANS AWOL ON TALKING ABOUT AMENDMENT 2 via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – “I think a lot of people are being quiet about it because they assume it’s going to pass and they don’t want to be on the wrong side,” incoming Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Jack Latvala said last week about the relative scarcity of GOP leaders opposed to the measure … FloridaPolitics.com reached out last week to four leading Republicans in Florida to determine where they stand on the issue, but five days later, only incoming House Speaker Richard Corcoran responded … “In 2014, the Florida House passed the Compassionate Medical Cannabis Act that eventually became law,” Corcoran emailed … “The law created a strict regime for dispensing non-smoked low-THC cannabis to patients who had run out of traditional pain management options. I believe that Amendment 2 is both unnecessary and is merely a steppingstone in the full legalization playbook. The law in place strikes a balance between compassion and control and poses no danger to our kids and grandkids.” Latvala took a beating on his Facebook page when he announced his opposition in September, but the Clearwater Republican said it actually demonstrated his political courage. “To get involved in something’s that winning over 70 percent of the vote is not an easy thing to do,” he said. “It takes a little bit of courage to get involved in an issue where it looks like you’re losing.” Many, if not most, Republicans opposed the measure in 2014, but some have come on board this year, including Tampa Bay-area Republicans Jeff Brandes and Dana Young.
PLANNED PARENTHOOD ACTION FUND ENDORSING STEPHANIE MURPHY IN CD 7 via Scott Powers of Florida Politics – Murphy, of Winter Park, seeks to unseat 12-term incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Mica, also of Winter Park. The district covers north-central and northeast Orange County and Seminole County. The Planned Parenthood Action Fund is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization formed as the advocacy and nonpartisan political arm of Planned Parenthood Federation of America.
CHARLIE CRIST REGAINS POLLING ADVANTAGE OVER DAVID JOLLY IN CD 13, NOW LEADS BY FIVE POINTS via Florida Politics – According to a fresh survey from St. Pete Polls, the former governor now leads the incumbent congressman 48 to 43 percent with a healthy 9 percent of CD 13 voters undecided. This swing may be both easy and complicated to explain. The easy answer for Crist’s eight-point move is that he and his allies at House Majority PAC have turned on the spigot and are inundating the Pinellas County district with positive ads about Crist and negative spots about Jolly. Crist holds a significant fundraising advantage over Jolly, while at the same time national Republicans have been hesitant to invest in a seat they believe is difficult to win and in a candidate with whom it has had a rocky relationship. The more nuanced explanation for Crist’s new advantage is that some voters’ perception of Jolly may have changed. With little money to air attack ads against Crist, Jolly has had to take the gloves off against the Republican-turned-Independent-
RANDY PERKINS AND HIS OPPONENTS POINT TO HIS DISASTER-RELIEF BUSINESS IN CONGRESS RACE via George Bennett of the Palm Beach Post – While Republicans accuse Democratic congressional candidate Perkins of profiting from natural disasters through his disaster-relief business, Perkins’ campaign Facebook page has been featuring Ashbritt Inc. over the past week for its response to Hurricane Matthew, saying the company is “here for the local communities that depend on us to respond quickly.” The three major jurisdictions in District 18 — the Palm Beach County Solid Waste Authority and Martin and St. Lucie counties — have contracts with Ashbritt for debris removal after storms. Asbhritt also has contracts with Brevard, Volusia and St. Johns counties in Florida; Chatham County, Georgia; and Charleston, South Carolina, according to a Perkins campaign spokesman. Martin County estimates it will spend $1.3 million on debris removal, with “half or a little more” going to Ashbritt, according to Martin County Engineer Don Donaldson. In Palm Beach County, Ashbritt is one of five vendors with SWA contracts but the contracts are not expected to be activated, said Assistant County Administrator Todd Bonlarron. Perkins’ campaign Facebook page last week posted photos of Perkins, in his capacity as Ashbritt CEO, meeting with Florida Gov. Rick Scott and Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal to discuss storm response. “Our local communities in District 18 have relied on my company in times of crisis for more than 12 years. I’m grateful most of our region was spared from the worst of Hurricane Matthew, but we are here to assist communities in need,” says a post that shows Perkins and Deal together.
CARLOS CURBELO CALLS ON FBI TO MONITOR FLORIDA’S ELECTION SYSTEMS via Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster of Florida Politics – Attorneys for the Miami Republican sent a letter to FBI Director James Comey Monday, asking the FBI to “closely monitor the election systems and databases in the State of Florida to ensure attempts to breach Florida’s election systems are detected and prevented.” Attorneys for Curbelo, who is running for re-election in Florida’s 26th Congressional District, point to recent news of attempted hacks into the state Board of Elections database and systems as part of their reasoning for their request. However, the attorneys also note Curbleo’s opponent, former Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia, has a history of condoning election fraud. “While we appreciate and have confidence in the integrity and ability of Florida’s elections officials, it is important to note that there are individuals who may seek to take unfair advantage of any attempts to hack and compromise the elections databases,” the letter reads. “In particular, the campaigns of Joe Garcia, the Democratic nominee for the 26th Congressional District, have had a proven history of engaging in or condoning election fraud.”
HOUSE MAJORITY PAC TARGETS CARLOS CURBELO — The political committee released its first ad in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. The 30-second spot, called “Signs,” attempts to tie the Miami Republican to Donald Trump. “Donald Trump and Carlos Curbelo share a dangerous agenda that would devastate South Florida families,” said Jeb Fain, the group’s communications director. “From women who rely on Planned Parenthood for their health care to current and future generations of seniors who rely on Social Security and Medicare for their retirement security, countless people across South Florida can’t afford the Trump-Curbelo ticket’s agenda.” Curbelo has said he does not support Trump, and once of the New York Republican’s earliest critics.
DONATIONS TO LEGISLATIVE CAMPAGINS TOPS $320.1 MILLION — Legislative campaigns raised $320.1 million through Sept. 30. An analysis by Contribution Link found $244.1 million of that went to committees. Political committees received $191.9 million, while affiliated committees received $13.2 million. The analysis showed candidates received $76 million. Most of that sum — $40.5 million — went to Republican candidates, while Democrats received $22.6 million and no party affiliation candidates raised $12.9 million.
HAPPENING NEXT WEEK – JOE NEGRON HOLDING FINAL CAMPAIGN FUNDRAISER — Senate President Designate Negron is scheduled to his final fundraising reception for his campaign at 5 p.m. at The Ritz Carlton Sarasota, 1111 Ritz-Carlton Drive in Sarasota. The Stuart Republican faces Democrat Bruno Moore in the Nov. 8 general election. Records show Negron has raised $488,464 for his state Senate re-election campaign. That sum doesn’t include any money raised for the political committee backing him.
FRF ENDORSES ROSS SPANO IN HD 59 via Florida Politics – The Florida Retail Federation is … had endorsed Spano, a Dover Republican, in his re-election bid. “During his time in the House, Ross has been focused on small businesses and providing them the support they need to succeed,” said Randy Miller, the president and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation, in a statement. “We’re confident Ross will continue to focus on Florida businesses following his re-election in House District 59 and we’re eager to continue our great relationship with him.”
JACKIE TOLEDO GETS FLORIDA GOP FUNDS IN HD 60 RACE, BUT DEMOCRAT DAVID SINGER HAS MORE CASH via Mitch Perry of Florida Politics – The RPOF gave more than $26,000 in in-kind and direct financial contributions to Toledo in September. More than $16,000 of that was for a poll. Another $1,500 was for staffing, and there was a separate $10,000 financial contribution on Sept. 30. Meanwhile, though there have been reports the Florida Democratic Party would come to Singer’s aid financially, that hasn’t been the case, at least as of the end of the last filing period. The local Hillsborough County Democratic Executive Committee contributed $8,000 to his campaign in the past month, adding to the previous $5,000 they gave him in his primary race when he ran unopposed. Toledo has raised more money than Singer, but the Tampa Democrat currently has more cash-on-hand. Toledo has raised $190,478 as of Sept. 30, but has spent more than $173,000, and has a little more than $17,000 cash-on-hand. Singer has raised $132,281, and spent $48,007, leaving himself with slightly more than $84,000 cash-on-hand.
TOLEDO MUM ON DONALD TRUMP SUPPORT, BUT SPOKESWOMAN SLAMS HIM via William March of the Tampa Bay Times – “The vulgar remarks of Donald Trump are unacceptable and have no place in our country. … our presidential candidates continue to disappoint,” Toledo said, calling for bipartisanship and prayer. Her campaign spokeswoman Ryan Wiggins has shown no such reticence, however, posting harshly anti-Trump tweets for weeks. During Sunday night’s debate, Wiggins tweeted, “Tonight, she (Hillary Clinton) is every woman and I hope she destroys that pig.” She has also re-tweeted a comment calling Trump “a misogynist, racist, vulgar, lying, ignorant, mad man,” and blasted Gov. Scott for refusing to allow her preferred presidential candidate, former U.S. intelligence officer Evan McMullin of Utah, on the ballot. That led Toledo’s Democratic opponent, David Singer, to say earlier this week that Toledo should follow Wiggins’ lead and denounce Trump. “The only course of action acceptable for Democrats, Independents, and Republicans is to oppose his candidacy,” Singer said. “It is time for Jackie to publicly rescind her support for Donald Trump.” Wiggins said she’s a private citizen entitled to her own views, which don’t necessarily reflect those of a candidate she works for. But she also insisted here’s no difference between her statement and Toledo’s. “She’s saying exactly what I’m saying.” She said Toledo has never endorsed Trump, and accused Singer of “bullying” Toledo over the issue. “For bullying a woman, he’s not any better than Trump,” she said.
HAPPENING TONIGHT:
LONE BROWARD-BASED REPUBLICAN LEGISLATOR FACES TOUGH RE-ELECTION RACE via Dan Sweeney of the South Florida Sun Sentinel – State Rep. George Moraitis … and Ken Keechl … are battling in the district that includes everything east of Dixie Highway between the Broward-Palm Beach county line and Port Everglades. About 37 percent of the district’s voters are registered Republicans; 35 percent are registered Democrats. The remaining 28 percent are a mix of voters with no party affiliation and those registered in a third party. Keechl says that Moraitis does not represent the district’s values, citing Moraitis’ votes in favor of fracking in the Everglades and against abortion and gay rights. “While my opponent focuses on narrow political issues, I have focused on the vital economic, education, and security issues that impact every resident of this district,” said Moraitis, who is seeking his fourth and final term. Moraitis doesn’t focus on votes on bills, but instead stresses budgetary appropriations for Broward County, with money sent to Broward for Port Everglades expansion and beach renourishment. Millions of dollars have come to Broward for those issues, and Moraitis says that to keep that money flowing, it would behoove voters to have a member of the majority party in the Broward legislative delegation. “I’m a realist,” Keechl said. “I know I’m going to be sitting in the back row.” Keechl says that his view on the issues — including a ban on fracking, expansion of Medicaid, women’s health care choices and placing tougher restrictions on firearm purchases — more accurately reflect the views of Broward County, and make him a better representative.
IN SOUTHWEST BROWARD, A VENEZUELAN-AMERICAN TRIES TO UNSEAT INCUMBENT via Dan Sweeney of the South Florida Sun Sentinel – State Rep. Rick Stark … won a tight primary in 2012 in State House District 104, which comprises all of Broward County south of Alligator Alley, including Weston, Southwest Ranches, Pembroke Pines and part of Davie. He was re-elected without opposition in 2014. About 41 percent of voters in the district are registered Democrats, while only 28 percent are registered Republican. Republican Oscar Ganem is counting on the large and growing Venezuelan population in southwest Broward to send him to the state Legislature. Ganem served as a state representative in his native Venezuela from 1988 to 1993. He arrived in the United States in May 2004 seeking political asylum, after the anti-Hugo Chavez coup attempt of 2002 and the successive general strikes over the next year left him a target of pro-Chavez groups. He became an American citizen in 2012, the same year Stark was elected to the Florida House.
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HAPPENING TODAY – FLORIDIANS FOR REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM DELIVERS LETTER TO RICK SCOTT URGING ROBUST ZIKA RESPONSE — The coalition of 56 organizations representing thousands of Floridians will deliver a letter to Gov. Scott requesting “immediate and specific action on the Zika virus outbreak and the growing public health crisis in Florida.” Members of the coalition — including Kimberly Diaz, the legislative representative for Planned Parenthood of South, East and North Florida; Hannah Willard, the public policy director for Equality Florida; and Damien Filer, the political director at Progress Florida — will deliver the letter at 11:30 a.m. to the Executive Office of the Governor located at the Plaza Level of the State Capitol, 400 S. Monroe Street in Tallahassee.
ECONOMISTS AGREE TO DISAGREE ON STATE PENSION FUND via Jim Rosica of Florida Politics – State economists deadlocked over changing the state pension fund’s expected rate of return on investments. The Florida Retirement System Actuarial Assumption Conference will meet again Thursday to see if members can compromise. Christian Weiss, economic policy coordinator for Gov. Scott, argued for keeping the system’s assumed rate of return at 7.65 percent. But Don Langston, staff director of the House of Representatives’ Finance & Tax Committee, and Amy Baker, head of the state Office of Economic and Demographic Research, argued for lowering it to 7.5 percent. During the meeting, Baker mentioned a “long-term dimming of expectations” from the investment markets. Pensions & Investments money management newspaper recently explained that “lowering return assumptions can have big implications.” For instance, “it increases the unfunded liabilities of pension plans,” meaning legislatures “must make larger pension contributions.” The pension plan of the Florida Retirement System, the nation’s fourth-biggest public retirement system, has been approximately 85-87 percent funded in recent years. But as conference members were told Tuesday, retirees are living longer and investments aren’t as profitable as they used to be.
SYD KITSON NAMED CHAIR OF FLORIDA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE via Florida Politics – The news was first reported by POLITICO Florida on Tuesday. Chamber spokeswoman Edie Ousley confirmed Kitson’s election by his fellow board members. He’ll serve one year as chair, beginning Nov. 1 and ending Oct. 31, 2017. According to his Chamber bio, he’s chairman and CEO of Kitson & Partners, “a Florida-based real estate company specializing in the creation, development and management of master-planned communities, commercial properties, resort properties and golf courses.” Kitson, who graduated from Wake Forest University, played offensive guard for both the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys.
NEW LOBBYING REGISTRATIONS
Patrick Bell, Capitol Solutions: City of Marianna
Jeff Sharkey, Taylor Biehl, Capital Alliance Group: Treadwell Nursery
HAPPY BIRTHDAY belatedly to the greatest of ’em all, Lucy Morgan. Celebrating today is our friend Lauren Book, Rep. Jimmie Smith, Southern Strategy Group’s Allyce Heflin, and Peter Kageyama.
WINNER NAMED AT GIANT PUMPKIN ANNUAL WEIGH-OFF IN CALIFORNIA via The Associated Press – An annual pumpkin-weighing contest in Northern California has a new winner: a third-grade teacher in Washington state who raised a giant one weighing 1,910 pounds. Cindy Tobeck, 42, who lives outside Olympia, Washington, said her pumpkin grew steadily since she planted it in April, spending much of that time in a greenhouse with heated soil. She said the secret to growing giant pumpkins is using the right seed.
