Peter Schorsch
The surest way for Charlie Crist to be the next U.S. Representative from Florida’s 13th Congressional District may be if it rains on Election Day.
A day-long thunder storm would certainly suppress turnout and keep those who have yet to cast their ballot from making their vote count.
And those voters — CD 13 residents likely to vote, but who have yet to do so — are firmly in Republican David Jolly’s camp, the final poll of the district shows. Fortunately for Crist, those who say they have already vote are strongly backing him.
According to the survey from St. Pete Polls and commissioned by FloridaPolitics.com, Crist continues to lead Jolly by three points, 48 to 45 percent. These are the exact same numbers Crist led Jolly by in the previous St. Pete Polls survey conducted a week ago.
For the first time, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton in the battleground district, 47 to 46 percent.
Going inside the numbers, Crist has a substantial lead with those who say they have already voted, either by mail or in person.
Crist leads Jolly 55 to 41 percent among those who say they have already voted.
Jolly, however, is 51 to 39 percent with those who say they are still likely to vote.
In fact, if you look at the raw numbers of which voters have yet to cast a ballot, there is a pathway to victory for Jolly.
As of Tuesday, there are still 32,173 Republican voters who have participated in all four of the last four elections (4/4) still in play, while there are just 25,952 Democrats and 10,826 Independents.
If the Republicans who have always voted continue to do so and the Independents don’t break four-to-one for Crist, then Jolly could win. He just has to turn out his voters. And that’s much easier to do when it’s sunny.
The forecast, by the way, shows only a ten percent chance of rain.
