Report estimates 2.3 million fewer Floridians will cast a ballot in 2018


A non-profit dedicated to boosting minorities’ and unmarried women’s share of the electorate said it expects 40 million voters who made it to the polls in 2016 will not vote in 2018.

The Voter Participation Center is predicting battleground states such as Florida will see the largest drop in turnout, with the Sunshine State expected to have 2.3 million fewer voters at the polls next year.

The group expects most of the drop-off to come from what it calls the “Rising American Electorate,” or RAE, which includes unmarried women, millennials, African Americans, Latinos and all other people of color as defined by the U.S. Census.

Their Florida data points to a 30 percent reduction in RAE voters in the Sunshine State next year, or about 1.4 million fewer votes, while non-RAE voters will see a dropoff of about 24 percent, or 929,000 votes.

VPC said the groups in the Rising American Electorate will make up about 61 percent of Florida’s electorate next year, but will cast 55.7 percent of the ballots.

In 2018, the governor’s mansion and a U.S. Senate seat are up for grabs, in addition to 140 state house and state senate seats.

The VPC report is based on research from Washington D.C.-based Lake Research Partners. The 2018 turnout predictions are based on the average of turnout in 2006, 2010, and 2014 applied to 2018 population estimates.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.



    August 8, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Curious: no reason for big drop in FL given here!
    Possibly due to Trump’s insistence on threatening voters by requesting all voters’ info????? hmm but why no mention?? Odd

  • Jodi

    August 9, 2017 at 10:40 am

    I will not vote in 2018. I know hundreds who are not voting either. This is because the Florida legislature does what ever they want anyways. They do not listen to Floridians. They do not care about Floridians. They have their own greed, egos, and agenda.

  • Christopher M. Kennard

    August 9, 2017 at 8:04 pm

    America receives grim news once more on fewer voters bothering to care to vote next year’s elections — over 40 million voters may not cast a vote in 2018.

    The news site, Progress Florida, posted a news story, “Report estimates 2.3 million fewer Floridians will cast a ballot in 2018,” by Peter Schorsch yesterday, revealing the new voter turnout estimates to be disappointing, to say the least, with significant drops of minority voters and single women voters in states like Florida.

    FLORIDIANS FOR FREEDOM (FFF) wish to change that outlook by bringing out these millions more voters who have a stake in this election for which to cast their votes in 2018, and two years later, in 2020. We have a lot of work to do over these next two elections, both in Florida and around the country. We can do this!
    We say there are issues at stake well worth the trip to go vote next year, such as these interrelated matters connected to cannabis that have dragged on for decades. We can end the prohibition of cannabis and bring an end to these other problems.
    It is how we can conduct a people’s peaceful “political revolution” where we both change our state of Florida and influence our country by voting for good, sound, workable policies and laws under which we shall live and of which we approve.
    As reported in another news article about Florida voters on July 7, 2017, by USA Today reporter, Frank Gluck, “More than 71 percent of Florida voters in November agreed marijuana should be used to treat serious illnesses – the highest margin of support among the nine states considering various levels of cannabis legalization last year.” (FRANK GLUCK, [email protected] July 7, 2017).
    In light of such high record support of this issue by the state’s voters, the recent slap across the face by Florida politicians to many of the 71% of voters supporting the full medicinal use of cannabis ought to be stunning! Somehow, stunning, it is not. For many involved with legalizing cannabis, it’s no surprise at all.
    It is why several cannabis activists and members of the FLORIDA CANNABIS ACTION NETWORK (FL CAN) joined together in 2014 to create a new non-partisan volunteer citizen’s campaign, the FLORIDIANS FOR FREEDOM (FFF).
    We knew, the current politicians would never support the full uses of cannabis.
    My name is Chris Kennard, and I am a North Central Florida volunteer coordinator in the petition drive for the FLORIDIANS FOR FREEDOM (FFF), a volunteer non-partisan citizen’s movement to legalize cannabis in our election of 2018.

    After we collect enough petitions in the next five months, then voters themselves can decide whether or not to pass a legal cannabis law in Florida by approving the RIGHT OF ADULTS TO CANNABIS [Initiative # 15-20] found on our website,

    Print out a copy to read, and if you agree, to sign and send back to our office. If you really like this new law, then make a couple of copies to pass out to other Florida voters to sign, and ask them to do the same: Sign one, pass along two copies and ask those folks to do it as well, thus creating a statewide cannabis “daisy chain” of signed petitions to obtain the 766,000 we need by December.

    Or go to
    RIGHT OF ADULTS TO CANNABIS [Initiative # 15-20] where you can find our petition to print out, and see how many thousands of signed petitions have been turned in around the state already. We have recently picked up the pace in our signed petition collection drive.

    FFF believes ending the prohibition of cannabis unifies more voters than many other issues facing America today. In turn, it brings resolution closer to other issues that the “War on Drugs” has caused over the decades. It assists most every person in our state and country, in one or more ways, and can lower our taxes.
    We have been collecting registered Florida voter signed petitions from nearly every one of the 67 counties around the state. We have thousands already verified by the State of Florida but need many thousands more.
    This is a true volunteer network of voters who intend to change our laws. We could use your help, for if enough of us believe we can take our state and our country onto a more peaceful, productive path, then, together, we all will.
    We have active Facebook pages for all 67 Florida counties, listed by county name first, followed by Floridians For Freedom. (Ex: Alachua Floridians for Freedom).
    If you want to be part of a citizen’s movement to make positive changes in America you can see and be part of creating this year, then please, join us.

  • Adrienne Foster

    August 11, 2017 at 9:55 am

    Respectfully how does that in any way help? We have groups all over killing themselves trying to get voter rights reinstated and you will willingly just couch it? Care about your own vote and know that you voted for yourself and your wishes.

Comments are closed.


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