Report estimates 2.3 million fewer Floridians will cast a ballot in 2018


A non-profit dedicated to boosting minorities’ and unmarried women’s share of the electorate said it expects 40 million voters who made it to the polls in 2016 will not vote in 2018.

The Voter Participation Center is predicting battleground states such as Florida will see the largest drop in turnout, with the Sunshine State expected to have 2.3 million fewer voters at the polls next year.

The group expects most of the drop-off to come from what it calls the “Rising American Electorate,” or RAE, which includes unmarried women, millennials, African Americans, Latinos and all other people of color as defined by the U.S. Census.

Their Florida data points to a 30 percent reduction in RAE voters in the Sunshine State next year, or about 1.4 million fewer votes, while non-RAE voters will see a dropoff of about 24 percent, or 929,000 votes.

VPC said the groups in the Rising American Electorate will make up about 61 percent of Florida’s electorate next year, but will cast 55.7 percent of the ballots.

In 2018, the governor’s mansion and a U.S. Senate seat are up for grabs, in addition to 140 state house and state senate seats.

The VPC report is based on research from Washington D.C.-based Lake Research Partners. The 2018 turnout predictions are based on the average of turnout in 2006, 2010, and 2014 applied to 2018 population estimates.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.



    August 8, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Curious: no reason for big drop in FL given here!
    Possibly due to Trump’s insistence on threatening voters by requesting all voters’ info????? hmm but why no mention?? Odd

  • Jodi

    August 9, 2017 at 10:40 am

    I will not vote in 2018. I know hundreds who are not voting either. This is because the Florida legislature does what ever they want anyways. They do not listen to Floridians. They do not care about Floridians. They have their own greed, egos, and agenda.

  • Adrienne Foster

    August 11, 2017 at 9:55 am

    Respectfully how does that in any way help? We have groups all over killing themselves trying to get voter rights reinstated and you will willingly just couch it? Care about your own vote and know that you voted for yourself and your wishes.

Comments are closed.


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