Peter Schorsch
Over the weekend, Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry took to Twitter, ruminating on youth football practice and game tape from last year.
Curry coaches his son’s team and takes it very seriously.
The mayor discussed repeating patterns of behavior shown on the field, adding a barb at the end: “People are predictable.”
Preparing to coach & Watching youth football video/film from last year & am reminded how predictable people are. Football life lessons.
— Lenny Curry (@lennycurry) August 17, 2017
Indeed, that’s what Curry’s political ascendance has been based on — anticipation, via interactions and polling, of the zeitgeist, and getting to the center-right of it.
He beat Alvin Brown by forcing Brown to tack left down the stretch. He sold pension reform by being flexible depending on his audience. And on HRO? Once he had his pension reform, he got out of the way.
Curry’s statement that “people are predictable” could have applied to one or more political rivals in City Hall (Garrett Dennis?), but it is an axiom we see as a leitmotif in this edition of Bold.
You’ll read of Rep. Al Lawson going up against the alt-right — but it would be news if he weren’t.
You’ll read of Duval Delegation members who, just by playing by the rules of the House, got rewarded with better committee spots — funny how that works.
People, as Curry says, are almost absolutely predictable.
A corollary to that: if you can’t predict outcomes, it’s likely because you need better data.
The people who win consistently in Jacksonville politics are the ones who understand people — competing pols, voters, donors, interest groups — as data sets, to be manipulated for the desired effect.
Al Lawson blasts alt-right
U.S. Rep. Lawson may have been helped into office by President Donald Trump’s Florida campaign chairwoman, but the Tallahassee Democrat has become a reliable critic of the president since he headed to D.C.
“The president should not indulge any of the hate groups. I don’t care if those are the ones that put him into office or not. He is the president of everybody in America, not one particular group,” reports WFSU.
WFSU also reported that “Lawson said Trump is adding insult to injury by failing to call the parents of peace activist Heather Heyer, who was murdered at the rally by a Nazi sympathizer. He toured a community health center in Tallahassee.
Lawson’s district (Florida’s 5th Congressional) runs from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, and most of his media are on the western edge of the area. WFSU also recently ran a deep compare-and-contrast of Lawson and state Rep. Neal Dunn, a Republican who represents a region adjoining the district’s Tallahassee side.
Northeast Florida improves position in state House
The message from House Speaker Richard Corcoran’s 2018 committee assignments: it’s good to play ball with leadership.
Nowhere is this truer than Northeast Florida, where many freshman state Representatives find themselves with more pull than they had in the just completed session, as the Miami Herald reports.
One Democrat who benefited: Tracie Davis was added to the Health and Human Services Committee.
Republicans, meanwhile, emerged with a slew of vice-chairmanships: Cyndi Stevenson of the Health Care Appropriations Subcommittee; Jason Fischer of the Pre-K Innovation Subcommittee; Clay Yarborough of the Government Operations & Technology Appropriations Subcommittee.
The biggest loser, per the Herald?
“Jay Fant not only lost the vice chair of the Civil Justice and Claims Subcommittee to Erin Grall, he lost his position on the House Judiciary Committee and the Ways and Means Committee. He was added to the Education Committee and the Justice Appropriations Subcommittee.”
Jax to spend big on after-school programs
“With his proposed recommendation to City Council of $2.69 million in added funds, 21 sites throughout Jacksonville could now open, serving approximately 1,720 more children. City Council (District 10) and Finance Committee member Reggie Brown plans to introduce an amendment at the proper time during the budget process to appropriate the funds,” read a release late last week from Mayor Lenny Curry.
“We are making every effort possible to maximize resources to meet the needs of at-hope children in our community,” Curry said. “When kids leave school campuses, they should be able to go to a community center or site to participate in recreational and enrichment activities. Gangs can’t have our kids!”
“As I’ve stated many times before, government has a role to play in making sure at-hope kids do not fall through the cracks. If there are ways for us to improve the lives of children, we’re going to do that responsibly and orderly with proper vetting and appropriate budgeting.”
The money, if included in the FY 2018 budget, would be available Oct. 1 — the beginning of the new fiscal year.
Jax Sheriff plays political hardball
In what has become a tradition in Jacksonville politics, a well-timed poll dropped Monday, just days before the Jacksonville City Council had a big decision to make.
A difference this time: instead of from Curry’s political committee, it had dropped from “A Safe Jacksonville,” the political committee of Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams.
Polling showed positives for the Sheriff and his proposal almost across the board: a 67 percent approval rating for Sheriff Williams; 68 percent favoring the Sheriff’s plan to add 100 new cops, and 50 percent of respondents vowing to vote against Council members who oppose adding new police. A top issue among Duval voters: Reducing crime.
And while the poll emanated from Williams’ committee, the tactic was like that used by Curry in the past — appropriate, as Tim Baker — a key Curry consultant, conducted the poll.
So why now?
Because it was necessary. City Council had to be sent a message — while the legislative branch may be the policymaking body, the Sheriff (and the mayor) ran on a public safety platform. And while it is uncertain whether the new officers will bring that public safety, what is certain is that the current force shortfall won’t get it done.
Bloomberg warns of potential Jax credit market woes
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Eric Kazatsky offered cautionary words about Jacksonville’s bonds this week, pertinent as the city continues attempts to improve its perception in the eyes of ratings agencies.
“Despite stable fund and cash balances,” Kazatsky writes, “the city has been challenged by a steadily increasing fixed-cost ratio, which could put downward pressure on credit ratings and add to debt risk.”
Here’s another negative: despite pension reform, the $2.8B unfunded actuarial liability draws unwelcome comparisons to Chicago.
“At just under Chicago’s 34 percent fixed-cost ratio, Jacksonville, Florida’s ratio nearly tops the list of major U.S. cities and calls attention to the city’s weak pension-funding levels,” Kazatsky writes.
Pension reform, the Bloomberg analyst holds, looks “very far” into the future, and is dependent on sales tax revenue remaining robust.
The city counters that it recently met with the ratings agencies and its AA rating is safe; but, this is one to watch.
Jax Young Dems’ spending draws scrutiny
Folio Weekly broke a story this week about the president of the Jacksonville Young Democrats, whose spending spurred criticism.
Kristellys Estanga had developed a habit, reports Folio, of requesting JYD funds for travel.
“There are a lot of charges out of town for Lyft and things like that,” said Estanga, the JYD Field Director.
But wait — there’s more: “further questions about how Estanga has been handling JYD’s funds … grumbles that Estanga has been soliciting, receiving and appropriating donations without informing other members of the group or depositing said funds into the JYD account.”
Estanga teased a resignation, then decided to go on the offense against those board members who questioned her probity.
All told, it’s another difficult internecine battle in local Jacksonville politics. Unlike with this week’s solar eclipse, those aren’t quite so rare.
In a three-page statement, the JYD comes director asserted that Estanga was guilty of no wrongdoing.
Duval GOP: A money pit?
Upon hearing of the Dems’ money problems, local Republicans smiled and said, “Hold my beer.”
Documents obtained by Florida Politics reveal a money morass for the party of Lincoln in the Bold New City of the South.
All told, the party had $5,506 on hand at the end of July. That won’t be enough to execute what apparently is a plan for the 2018 election cycle, one that will need $116,260 to accomplish.
Among the interesting spends in that budget: $5,000 for a color laser printer (why lease, after all?) and $6,000 for a Christmas Party.
One interesting tell on strategy: social media gets the short end of the stick, with just $1,000 allocated for the whole cycle.
The party also will forego Lincoln Day, we are told — a jarring omission for a big-city party in a Republican sinecure, especially during a massively important election year.
Jax DMA unemployment ticks upward
Gov. Rick Scott’s Department of Economic Opportunity says that Jacksonville’s unemployment rate is holding steady. But another analysis says the job market is weakening.
The Jax Daily Record reports “a slight increase in the jobless rate from 3.95 percent in June to 4.27 percent in July, according to the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project.”
“The Fed increased interest rates in June,” UNF economist Albert Loh told the Record. “That may have slowed down business hiring plans in July.”
A sector suffering: Business and professional services, down 2.6 percent year over year.
Anna Brosche rejects port dredging workshop
Jacksonville City Council President Brosche will not be calling a council workshop on the deepening of the St. Johns River.
The Florida Times-Union reports that Brosche was responding to an ask from Council members John Crescimbeni and Tommy Hazouri to call a council workshop on the JAXPORT proposed funding plan asking the city to pay $47 million to $150 million of the $484 million cost of deepening 11 miles of the river.
JAXPORT has not requested any city funding for the next two years, Brosche said. After conversations with port authority Interim CEO Eric Green, Brosche said JAXPORT may turn to other sources for deepening, and not ask the city for money.
Brosche said: “The funding requirements of the project and related implications on Jacksonville taxpayers are not certain or known, are continuing to evolve, and may never materialize.”
Jacksonville University, The District to prove benefits of ‘healthy town’ concept
An academic partnership between The District and Jacksonville University to prove the benefits of entrepreneur Peter Rummell’s “healthy town” concept, which has become the foundation of a development plan for the Jacksonville Riverfront.
Jacksonville Business Journal reports that over the past two years, Rummell and Dalton Agency’s Michael Munz have been promoting a multiphase 30-acre development on property owned by the JEA.
The site has been under an $18.5 million contract with the Elements Development of Jacksonville LLC since 2015, with closing expected late 2017.
While it’s logical to think a “healthy living” strategy will produce health benefits, Jacksonville University is officially partnering with The District to “measure the effectiveness of [the] healthy town concept.”
“We intentionally designed The District to offer residents every element they need to live the healthiest of lives, and we want to be able to empirically and qualitatively prove that having access to and utilizing all of these resources in one place does, in fact, help make people healthier,” Rummell said in the news release.
The JU Brooks Rehabilitation College of Healthcare Sciences will lead the research project “using both quantitative and qualitative research approaches.”
Florida Theater to hold October TEDxJacksonville
“We, The People” is the theme of the sixth annual TEDxJacksonville, set for Saturday, Oct. 14, at the Florida Theatre. The daylong event, scheduled for 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., will feature 13 speakers and musical performances. All-day general admission tickets are $100; tickets for Session 3 only – with four speakers – is $49. All tickets include admission to Afterglow, the conference’s post-event street party.
According to the Florida Times-Union, scheduled speakers include Cynthia Barnett of Gainesville, talking about climate issues; Brenda Bradley of Accokeek, Maryland, to discuss new eating research; Jacksonville educator and youth advocate Amy Donofrio; K9s for Warriors founder Shari Duval of Jacksonville; Manal Fakhoury of Ocala to discuss strategies for tackling the nation’s opioid epidemic; Melanie Flores of Atlanta talking about storytelling, imagination and design for children; Ellen Freidin of Miami will discuss gerrymandering and Jacksonville attorney Chris Hand will explain how to fight City Hall and win.
Armada attendance sinking – can Robert Palmer fix?
It might be riptide for new Jacksonville Armada owner Robert Palmer, as local soccer fans aren’t finding the on-field product irresistible, reports the Florida Times-Union.
“Jacksonville drew 780 fans for Wednesday’s loss to Puerto Rico FC, lowest in club history and lowest in the North American Soccer League this year,” the T-U reports.
Part of the issue, Palmer said, was a flawed attendance calculation.
“I want to give a more accurate picture to fans, to sponsors about how much engagement we really have,” Palmer said. “The idea for me that we could print out 1,000 tickets, and those 1,000 tickets were free, but they could land in a desk drawer or land in a trash can somewhere, and then report that as attendance – that just didn’t sit well. So, we’re going to have a more transparent method for calculating attendance going forward.”
Palmer intends to use local Armada telecasts to create stars, he said.
Armada play well but fall 1-0 to Miami
The Jacksonville Armada FC faced the NASL Spring Season Champion Sunday night at Hodges Stadium on the University of North Florida campus. Despite an attacking prowess which netted 13 total shots including four on goal, the Armada FC fell 1-0 to the Miami FC. The lone goal was recorded by Miami attacker Jaime Chavez in Minute 41. Defender Rhett Bernstein sparked the attack with an excellent pass to midfielder Ariel Martínez, who used a dummy run to evade two Armada defenders. Martínez then sprinted towards the Jacksonville box before threading a ball to a wide-open Chávez, who blasted home the chance and put Miami ahead 1-0.
Although the team was unable to collect three points, Armada head coach Mark Lowry remains positive.
“We dominated. That performance was superb against the best team in the league. It shows how good we are,” said Lowry. “That performance was almost perfect, we just lacked two or three goals. We keep doing that and we’ll start winning games.”
After the goal, the Armada attacked often in the second half. Goalkeeper Caleb Patterson-Sewell made a great save early in the half, as he extended his entire frame to deflect a Miami attempt on goal. Mechack Jérôme also showed off his defensive presence, breaking up a potential Miami FC breakaway. Derek Gebhard brought a much-needed spark off the bench, recording four shots in the second half. His best attempt came in the 87th minute as he tried to equalize the score, but Vega was there with the save.
“If one or two of those would have [found the back of the net], it would have been a different game. But I’d like to see us getting back to clean sheets and defending. I think we defended better than the last few nights, but again, we just need to make sure we close down more. There are positive signs,” said Patterson-Sewell.
Next the Armada hit the road as they travel to face Indy Eleven. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. Saturday in Indianapolis. The team will return home Saturday, Sept. 9, for First Responders Night at Hodges Stadium.
