5 thoughts on Ron DeSantis: The X factor in the Florida governor’s race

Though the studio team got the scoop first, Florida residents will see Ron DeSantis soon.

Monday morning sees U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis launching his campaign for Florida governor in Boca Raton.

DeSantis’ entry into the race was teased practically from the time he left the 2016 race for U.S. Senate when Marco Rubio opted to run for re-election in June.

DeSantis did settle for another two years in Congress, representing a swath of the Atlantic Seaboard from the Daytona area up through southern St. Johns County, but it was the openest of open secrets that he wanted to be in a statewide spot.

A Jacksonville native, DeSantis is a Harvard Law graduate who did his undergrad work at Yale. He served as a Navy lawyer and a federal prosecutor; in short, he checks all the boxes that the national Republican donor class wants in candidates they back (which reflects in DeSantis’ finance team and will reflect in his donors going forward).

That’s a thumbnail biography, of course. Though he’s never had a statewide position yet, he enters the race with a few unique advantages, and several questions worth pondering.

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He’s Donald Trump’s candidate — will that matter?

President Donald Trump endorsed DeSantis on Twitter, of course.

“Congressman Ron DeSantis is a brilliant young leader, Yale and then Harvard Law, who would make a GREAT Governor of Florida. He loves our Country and is a true FIGHTER!”

In terms of an endorsement for a Republican primary candidate, could there be anything better? Sure, Trump played the Alabama U.S. Senate race about as badly as it could be played. He endorsed Luther Strange, who lost the primary, then deleted those “Big Luther” tweets and endorsed Roy Moore — a catastrophic move, but one all in a day’s work for this White House.

DeSantis said “when he tweets, and he has 100 million people that are seeing that, it’s a really, really big deal, and I really appreciate the kind words from the President.”

Kind words, yes. But will they matter in the end? For many people in the state, Trump’s tweet was their first introduction to DeSantis — because he’s been a Congressman for four years. Fox News viewers, of course, see DeSantis and Rep. Matt Gaetz in heavy rotation. But for those who have seen the Adam Putnam campaign evolve over months, with that sense of inevitability building over years, DeSantis will seem prefab to them.

He’s Trump’s guy … but he’ll have to be more than Trump’s guy.

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Will the Governor’s race become nationalized?

Putnam spent much of 2017 slowwalking toward Presumptive Nominee status, and much of his energy attempting to shore up his right flank.

One of his more memorable news cycles was when he declared himself, apropos of nothing, an “NRA sellout.” His backing for campus carry was probably the best indicator of how far he’d go.

That dog-whistle was intended to reassure the right that they wouldn’t have to worry about Putnam going squishy on Second Amendment issues. In a field where it was Putnam, former Sen. Jack Latvala, and potentially Richard Corcoran, that was a reasonably smart play.

Now comes DeSantis, who is instinctively able to work that Fox News style of polemic. This puts Putnam in a unique position; though his NRA bona fides aren’t really in doubt (he consistently has gotten A+ ratings, with DeSantis getting an A last time he ran), it’s going to be impossible for Putnam to paint DeSantis as soft on 2nd Amendment rights — and other red meat issues.

The paradox: Putnam has built his support from Florida interests. DeSantis’ backing will come largely from outside the state.

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Will state policy matter?

The contrast between Putnam and DeSantis is pretty stark. Putnam has taken pride in campaigning and appearing throughout the state the last eight years; DeSantis announced his campaign on Fox and Friends for a good reason — he’s at least as comfortable in a TV studio as he is on the stump.

The open question is going to be how quickly DeSantis moves into talking state issues, and how knowledgeable he will be when he does so. Those Fox News hits tend to be at the intersection of hawkish foreign policy and apologias for President Trump. Though Gov. Rick Scott has been known to dabble in that space, the vast majority of state business will proceed apace whether or not the Mueller investigation is spiked or not.

DeSantis has had one elected position, and he spent most of that time looking for his next move. There are those who question how committed he is to his positions. And there are those who question how interested DeSantis will be in dealing with issues like Visit Florida, Enterprise Florida, the charter school debate, Florida Forever, and so on.

Brian Kilmeade interviews are good preparation for a lot of things. But Putnam (and Richard Corcoran, should he get in) will need to devote a lot of energy to exposing DeSantis’ inexperience on state policy issues.

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What does Corcoran do now?

The House Speaker isn’t supposed to announce his next move until March. Those close to DeSantis contend that Corcoran already lost the Koch network support, citing the sanctuary cities bill and insurance reform as distraction from the fact Corcoran is a trial lawyer. However, sources inside the Koch network dispute that narrative, saying that both are A+ rated candidates and champions for issues of importance in their respective chambers; they say that having two such candidates in the race is a “good problem to have.”

Corcoran will be in a unique position. DeSantis will be able to co-opt many of his policy positions in the weeks before Sine Die. Between that and the really big “will he or won’t he story” of March, the Rick Scott announcement, it will be worth watching to see if Corcoran’s path gets too narrow for him to even run in the end.

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How will the Dems botch this golden opportunity?

Wave election: check.

Trump endorsee: check.

Grassroots and donor enthusiasm: check back later.

The two leading Democrats in the gubernatorial race, former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, would love the contrast with DeSantis.

Graham told me earlier this month that she doesn’t think much of DeSantis’ debating skills, and relishes the opportunity. And Gillum, whether he gets the nomination or ends up Graham’s Lt. Gov. pick, would love to be able to tee off on the DeSantis/Trump axis for months on end.

It’s easy to do that in theory. But if DeSantis gets the nomination, the billionaires and a national cable news network will be at his disposal.

And yeah, though it’s a wave election, it’s an open question whether the Democrats can counter the waves of outside money and support that will flood in for DeSantis.

Eight years ago, a Tallahassee outsider took the Republican nomination, then won the whole thing. He won re-election four years later. Neither of them were blow out wins. They didn’t have to be.

DeSantis may be the proverbial answer to a question that nobody asked. But for Republicans and Democrats alike, he has become the #1 problem to solve in 2018.