Jacob Ogles
A new survey conducted by St. Pete Polls shows Republican Michael Waltz pulling ahead of primary opponents John Ward and Fred Costello in the race to succeed U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis in Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
The new poll commissioned for Florida Politics asked likely primary voters who they would support if the election were held today. Waltz, a St. Augustine Army veteran, would take 40 percent of the vote, results show. Ward, a Palm Coast Navy veteran, would win 21 percent, while former Ormond Beach state Rep. Costello would get 16 percent. Another 23 percent of those polled remain undecided.
The poll, taken on Aug. 10, shows an even more pronounced lead for Waltz among voters who already cast their ballot in the race. Waltz won support from 41 percent of those polled. Interestingly, Costello outperformed Ward among those eager voters, winning 22 percent to Ward’s 21 percent.
More than 23 percent of those surveyed already voted in the Republican primary.
The poll shows significant movement from survey by St. Pete Polls conducted on July 18. Then, the three Republicans appeared to be in a dead heat, with Costello just over 21 percent, Ward just under 21 percent and Waltz at 20.
Now Waltz has gone from third (really a statistical tie) to first.
Waltz leads strongly with both male and female votes, but the poll found a higher percentage of men (26) percent who remain undecided in the race compared to women (20 percent).
Ward is outperforming Costello 23-16 among women voters but just 17-16 among male voters. Waltz, however, wins 41 percent of both the male and female vote.
He also secured more than 41 percent of white voters, the vast majority of likely voters polled in the race. Ward won 21 percent of the white vote to Costello’s 16 percent.
But Ward performed best among Asian voters, winning 67 percent to Waltz’s 33. Costello, meanwhile, won over Hispanic voters, securing 33 percent to Waltz’s 20 and Ward’s 13.
Every black voter surveyed remains undecided in the race.
Among voters under age 30, Waltz and Ward are tied at 27 percent, with Costello winning 20 percent. But Waltz holds a solid lead among all other age groups, including winning 49 percent of votes age 70 and older, compared to Ward’s 18 percent and Costello’s 16.
The automated phone poll surveyed 528 registered Republicans who plan to vote in the Aug. 28 primary. Pollsters reported a 95-percent confidence level and a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
The candidates are running to succeed DeSantis, now a candidate for governor. DeSantis in 2016 won 59 percent of the vote in the district over Democrat Bill McCullough’s 41 percent, and President Donald Trump won the district with 57 percent over Hillary Clinton’s 40 percent.
