CBS poll: Bill Nelson-Rick Scott race a dead heat; Andrew Gillum up just 1 point on Ron DeSantis

Nelson Scott Tropical

A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Democratic U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson and Republican challenger Rick Scott in a dead heat. The survey also shows Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum leading Republican Ron DeSantis by just 1 percentage point.

The poll found the two major Senate candidates winning 46 percent of the vote each among likely voters, with another 1 percent going to “someone else” and 6 percent of voters still unsure.

The same poll found Gillum winning 47 percent support and DeSantis winning 46 percent, with another 2 percent supporting someone else and 5 percent still unsure.

Respondents were surveyed Oct. 23-26. Pollsters report a 4 percent margin of error.

Scott, the two-term Governor of Florida, earned high marks for his response to Hurricane Michael, with 63 percent approving of his response and 23 percent disapproving. Gillum, Mayor of Tallahassee, had a 43-24 approve/disapprove rating on storm response. For Nelson, 41 percent approved of his performance and 28 percent disapproved. And for DeSantis, the breakdown was 35 percent approval, 25 percent disapproval.

The results came out as part of a report on Senate battleground states, including Arizona and Indiana. The poll also found Democrat Krysten Sinema leading Republican Martha McSally 47-44 in Arizona, but found incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly losing 46-43 against Republican challenger Mike Braun.

In Florida, the poll also found 80 percent of those surveyed feel somewhat or very good about the state of the economy. About 51 percent of voters were paying a “great deal” of attention to the election, and another 37 percent followed the race “a fair amount.”

Some 52 percent of those surveyed said they definitely plan to vote, and 78 percent of those called had voted in 2014 or 2010.

64 percent of those voting say they have made up their mind. Another 23 percent say their support is “strong” and unlikely to change.

Curiously, pollsters found voters’ sense of how well the candidates understood Florida issues divided more along whether the politicians hold federal or state office, as opposed to falling along party lines.

Some 38 percent say Scott understands Florida issues “very well.” For Gillum, 34 percent feel the same. About 32 percent said that of Nelson and 31 percent said it of DeSantis.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


39 comments

  • Amy Sly

    October 28, 2018 at 2:34 pm

    This poll is Bogus. Look at the Crosstabs. Ron Desantis is in the lead because they oversamed Democrats. Interestingly the independents are now breaking for Desantis by 12 points! If you put a regular Florida turnout then that would put Desantis up by 3 in this same poll

    • Mime Desantis

      October 28, 2018 at 10:16 pm

      you are high

    • Hollyanne

      October 28, 2018 at 10:41 pm

      👍👍

    • Hollyanne

      October 28, 2018 at 10:57 pm

      one Nelson is a complete retard and incapable of handling anything.
      He in no way will win. Florida voters are not THAT stupid !! Gillum can’t control the zoo in Tallahassee. What makes you think he can control the state ? Again,Florida
      voters aren’t THAT stupid !

      • Jmmboca

        October 29, 2018 at 7:02 pm

        That word is no longer used and is actually offensive. You are ignorant and obviously you don’t know what you are talking about. Educate yourself please

        • Democrats are all POS/ Scum

          October 29, 2018 at 9:21 pm

          Jmmboca,

          Take your political correctness and stick up your weak ass. You have to be a little Democrat snowflake trying to silence people’s opinions you don’t like. Democrats are the most racist, radical violent jackoffs around. Democrats created the KKK. Fact. Farrakhan and Bill Ayers are Democrats and Obama mentors. Both radical racists and terrorist. Get educated yourself clown. All Democrats keep the blacks and minorities down for votes. Republicans want to teach them to be successful. Democrats want illegal aliens to swarm our borders for votes. Democrats are all filthy lying POS. Save America and vote Desantis/ Scott

    • Dave

      October 29, 2018 at 4:14 pm

      Very true. I work at the polls.

  • Jeff Sutton

    October 28, 2018 at 9:23 pm

    Also out today the Siena College/NYT poll has Gillum +5. Gillum polling consistently ahead but can’t put DeSantis away. Close race the Dems are ahead of the 2014 baseline in early/ mail in voting and the GOP preforming up to standard. Gotta think Gillum is the favorite right now.

    • Lyn Koch

      October 29, 2018 at 11:36 am

      God I hope not. FL does not need to be a socialist,sanctuary state.

      • Jmmboca

        October 29, 2018 at 6:50 pm

        So glad I don’t live in N. Florida which should actually be called S. Georgia.

  • Jeffrey Sutton

    October 28, 2018 at 9:28 pm

    Amy the 12 point independent figure you saw in the Siena poll was for Gillum.

  • Ally

    October 29, 2018 at 3:47 am

    Everyone I know is voting Desantis. No one crazy enough to destroy Florida with Gillum. NO WAY!!!! Red wave!

    • Dervin s

      October 29, 2018 at 5:45 am

      Me and 25 other families members just vote Andrew gillum

      • JD

        October 29, 2018 at 6:07 am

        AwEsOmEnEsS! I am calling my college girlfriend and her fam to gote for Andrew as well.

      • KarenK

        October 29, 2018 at 9:10 am

        Can I ask why?

  • David

    October 29, 2018 at 6:54 am

    Don’t say “Florida voters are not THAT stupid !!” Florida went for Trump and that was STUPID!!!!!

    • Jody

      October 29, 2018 at 7:23 am

      David you poor snowflake you’re really going to be crying after the election

      • Neil

        October 29, 2018 at 8:16 am

        Jody you are the one that will be crying. Trump is ruining our once great country. The world just laughs at our President – who is a liar and narcissist – and that is his good side.. what a great place to live… NOT

  • KarenK

    October 29, 2018 at 9:14 am

    Every time Gillum is in the hot seat he either quotes his grandmother or plays the race card. I’m tired of everything being about race in politics, and I’m pretty certain I’m not alone.

    • Jmmboca

      October 29, 2018 at 6:56 pm

      You should do some research then and educate yourself about unearned privilege. I am tired of self centered white people making stupid comments like yours….someone who has no idea what it’s like to walk in someone else’s shoes, and I am white! Grow up

      • Pete

        October 30, 2018 at 1:27 am

        And I am sooooo tired of people like you stating I “being white” have a privilege that others “non-white” don’t have. This identity politics WILL bring down this country. Look at yourself in the mirror…..You have only yourself to blame if you are not successful. It is YOUR fault and ONLY YOUR fault. Not mine. Did I oppress you? NO….Get that chip off your shoulder and buck up little man…. Maybe you have been “too educated” in the liberal agenda. Think for yourself….You really can succeed if you get off the Democrat Train……..

  • Gillum for Governor

    October 29, 2018 at 9:46 am

    Mayor Andrew Gillum is best for Florida.
    Blue Wave 🌊 coming!

    • Tony Ramos

      October 30, 2018 at 2:46 am

      Yay!!! Go Blue!

  • William Dail

    October 29, 2018 at 11:13 am

    This poll is bogus! There are 6 candidates on your ballot for Governor, not 2. Major media conveniently excluding candidates again!

  • Patti

    October 29, 2018 at 1:31 pm

    I hope that DeSantis pulls out and beats this crook, Andrew Gillum. How can anyone vote for someone that has proved that he will take freebies and put the State of Florida up for sale to the right bidder? I have friends and family members that are in business that are sick thinking that Gillum might win and some are already thinking about an exit plan. I am talking about lifelong Floridians that came from Pioneer Florida families. Someone has to pay for Gillum’s tax tax tax ideas. I am also looking for another place to move to but I will have to stick it out here in Florida for at least a year. It breaks my heart to hear my son and daughter in law worry about what will happen to their independent business. How Floridians could think that a man under FBI investigation for taking payola is okay and how people could vote for this man is beyond me. Having his catering for his fundraiser paid for by the “FBI agent who he thought was an investor? We are talking corruption and he is already corrupt before he is elected but people do not care, they just want to vote the ticket no matter how crooked he is. I loved my State but I will not stay in a State where we are lead by someone that is obviously so lawless! No wonder he does not like law enforcement! #walkaway I did.

  • Tyrone Jackson

    October 29, 2018 at 2:10 pm

    Trump and Republicans have economy booming for all races especially minorities. Gillum is a racist, hates law enforcement, wants to raise taxes and is corrupt. Businesses will flee Florida, jobs will go with them and 15$ minimum wage will cause mass layoffs, price increases and robots doing human jobs. Gillum is corrupt and getting paid by big lobbiests including George Soros. Vote character over color. If you want Florida to become a crime ridden socialist state like Venezuela or a third world country vote Gillum. If you want success and money in your pocket vote Desantis/ Scott. Make history!!! Youtube Gillum bragging about taking money for Soros. You want your family safe and good economy vote Desantis/ Scott. Gillum want Florida to be a sanctuary state for all illegals. We will have to pay for them. Educate yourselves.

  • Jose Dominguez

    October 29, 2018 at 2:49 pm

    Tyrone is right!! Gillum will tax everyone big time and take our money to pay for illegals and his dirty business dealings. He is in George Soros pocket. Why do all of Hollywood support liberals and they are super rich. They want socialism and want us to give up all our money to pay for the Democrats special interest groups. When have you ever seen a Hollywood actor give up all their money and live on 30k a year? Never. When have you ever seen the billionaires supporting Gillum give up all their money? Never. Gillum is a communist and wants to wipe out the middle class. He wants a rich elite class and a poor class. If they get rid of the middle class they control everything. Gillum will go after and take your guns as well. Gillum is bad news and has a history of corruption. Vote for Desantis. All Democrats are frauds, crooks and liars. Just like the news media.

  • Willie Wilson

    October 29, 2018 at 3:00 pm

    Gillum can only play race card and divide. The democrats playbook is divide and conquer. Always has been. Gillum will unleash criminals in our neighborhoods and persecute cops. Gillum is racist and can’t stand white people. Gillum has no good policies except tax tax tax. Gillum only wants to give freebies out for votes and does not want to enable minorities to be successful. When minorities finally figure out the democrats have been enslaving them with freebies and food stamps it will all be over. Gillum and the dems want all the illegals here simply for votes. They are abandoning blacks for illegals because blacks are seeing the light finally and voting Republican. The Democrats have destroyed America for long enough. Vote for Desantis.

  • Gillums a Communist

    October 29, 2018 at 3:10 pm

    Gillum is a COMMUNIST. Democrats and Gillum promising the world for votes. False promises again by socialists to gain power. Obama was a disaster economically and Gillum will be way worse. Gillum only wants the minority vote and has nothing for them. Gillum is for crime and against law enforcement. No surprise with how corrupt he is. Do your research people. You want high taxes, high crime and another corrupt democrat politician? This guy is a socialist which means he will take your money via high taxes and give it away for his self interests. Socialism has never and will never work. They always run out of other peoples money and then everyone is poor except the politicians and the rich.

  • Reezy

    October 29, 2018 at 3:13 pm

    Tyrone Jackson is a fake name by a white person and also the name Jose Dominguez to make it look like minorities are against Gillium. Desantis used the phrase “Monkey this up” and it’s no way that doesn’t have racial undertones. As a politician he knows better. He was trying to play to a base and I hope that this destroys his political career. lord knows he only deserves it. Then he’s dollying it up with racist and taking their money who also called Obama a muslim nigger. He’ s pathetic.

    • Pete

      October 30, 2018 at 1:39 am

      Hey Reezy, “monkey this up” is a phrase you pathetic snowflake. Please look it up. Those of us that are over 25 heard it all the time growing up. (NOT RACIST) You are probably one of those who also think the “OK” hand symbol is racist. Pretty soon we won’t be able to talk to each other w/o offending YOU the liberal hurting victim of something snowflake. Please find your safe space. There is real life out there, If you think taxing the heck out of Florida to pay for all these liberal policies will work just look at history. Heck look south of our border! That is all socialist and it’s going so well they all want to come here to get away from it. So when you say pathetic please understand the Gullium is a pathetic racist socialist that will drive Florida’s economy into the ground !

  • Gillum hates cops

    October 29, 2018 at 3:29 pm

    Funny how Gillum has so much advise for law enforcement. Why don’t you put on the uniform you POS and go work the streets then come say something. You have sucked off the government tit your whole life in an air conditioned office watching crime go through the roof in your city. You have no idea what cops go through. You’d rather a cop get shot than defend themselves. You are a collosal failure and F-up. Keep playing your race card and dividing more. You Democrats are the dirtiest scumbags on the planet. FU Gillum. Go Desantis/ Scott!!! Vote for Desantis!!! At least he was Military and served his country!! Gillum serves himself billionaire donors.

  • Corrupt Gillum

    October 29, 2018 at 3:36 pm

    Yeah Reezy. God forbid a minority can think for themselves. Obama used the phrase Monkey this Up and it was all fine. It’s always fine for Democrats until the want to cry racism. Desantis was not being racist. Here’s a fun fact and you can look it up. The Democrats started the KKK and were pro-slavery. The Republicans and Lincoln freed the slaves. I know your communist teachers may say different, but if you research and educate yourself you will see I’m right. Also Hillary Clinton called blacks “Super Predators”. Another fact, but I bet you voted for her. Got to love dumb liberals.

  • Mine

    October 29, 2018 at 4:11 pm

    Cause that’s what we need In Florida. A proposed 37% state income tax he said numerous times he will implement.

  • Diana Ruelas

    October 29, 2018 at 11:26 pm

    Vote blue Florida. Republicans suck.

    • Pete

      October 30, 2018 at 1:41 am

      So when I vote Democrat I can look forward to higher taxes, illegal persons taking my job and loss of business / jobs. Okay I’ll think about it……….

  • Deb

    October 30, 2018 at 7:42 pm

    Dems all the way. Trump and Co. are a disgrace to the country and the world. Like the little narcissist himself, stupid people just can’t understand that they’re stupid.

    • Democrats are Sheep

      November 2, 2018 at 11:05 am

      Deb, I don’t think a disgrace is a great economy and minorities having great opportunity now that they didn’t under the idiotic democrats. What is the democrats plan? Higher taxes, open borders and high crime? Freebies for all courtesy of the working American tax payers? Who cares what the world thinks? Trump putting America first and not giving all our money and jobs to foreign countries like your boy Obama. You’re an idiot and get your politics from the View, Morning Joe and fake news. You are a sheep that can’t think for yourself.

  • Democrats Have No Plan

    October 31, 2018 at 8:53 am

    Democrats hate a good economy, hate religion, hate white people and want everything for free. They complain about Trump and Republicans but have no plan for anything other than resist. They have no argument for Trump’s success other than they don’t like him and they get easily offended because they are weak. We saw what 8 years of Obama’s horrible policies did to the country and he did nothing for minorities. All FALSE promises. You can keep your doctor. Remember that. The Democrats are communists and want to turn the USA into a third world country for power. They are the do what I say not as I do party. Hypocrits. If you want to weaken our country and make it poor and the politicians rich vote DemocRAT. If you want success and opportunity vote Republican. Democrats and Libs go on feeling and not facts. Always have. Red Wave coming!!

Comments are closed.


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