Surge: Andrew Gillum, Bill Nelson each around 50 percent
Despite ‘vulnerabilities,’ Bill Nelson is still confident he will win.


Another public poll brings good news for Democrats running statewide, with gubernatorial hopeful Andrew Gillum and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson ahead of Republican opponents.

A survey released Wednesday by Ipsos/Reuters/The University of Virginia Center for Politics shows Gillum at the magical 50 percent threshold and Nelson close behind at 49 percent.

Gillum’s 50 percent of likely voters, the same as the last Reuters polling a month ago, puts him ahead of his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, who has 44 percent.

Gillum and DeSantis both have their bases on lock in this poll, with 95 percent and 90 percent of intraparty support respectively.

While many surveys have shown independent voters strongly backing Gillum, this poll reflects a slender 35 to 33 edge, with the balance undecided or leaning to another candidate.

Nelson likewise holds a meaningful lead in this survey, with 49 percent of likely voters backing him, compared to 44 percent for his Republican opponent, Gov. Rick Scott.

When voters “leaning” to one candidate over the other are added, the tally is 50-45.

Nelson commands the support of 92 percent of Democrats; Scott, 90 percent of Republicans. Independents back Nelson 36 to 29, with the balance undecided or looking elsewhere.

Caveats: The poll, which saw respondents “interviewed online in English,” was conducted over an 8-day period (Oct. 17-25).

This calls into question how well it reflects the dynamics of the race, which include bombshells regarding Gillum’s interaction with FBI agents that Republicans deem evidence of corruption.

The sample includes 1,069 likely voters: of those, 455 Democrats, 513 Republicans and 71 independents. Compared to some public polls, Republicans are overrepresented (almost 50 percent of the vote in this model); independents (at roughly 7 percent) are underrepresented.

The poll does not use a “margin of error,” but rather a “credibility interval” of plus/minus 2.5 percent for each respondent.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski

One comment

  • sal

    October 31, 2018 at 3:52 pm

    BILL NELSON and Socialist ANDREW GILLUM are running for Senate & Governor respectively. Nelson / Gillum both proudly supports abolishing ICE, sanctuary cities, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, using taxpayer funds for illegal aliens & DACA. In addition, both are weak on border security and national defense.

    If you OPPOSE illegal immigration, taxpayer funds used for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, amnesty r Please VOTE NO for BILL NELSON & ANDREW GILLUM this November….we can’t afford anymore Democrats. Both supported by both La Raza & MALDEF which says it all.

    Vote this election for candidates who prioritize citizens over illegal aliens (bet you thought that was a given …not anymore.) Those candidates who oppose sanctuary cities, open borders, non citizens voting, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens and taxpayer funded in state college tuition discounts. That means NO Democrats.

    Recent Gallup poll- almost 60% of Democrats now view socialism positively, little changed from 2010 survey.

    To Democrats programs like (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, DACA) and (Temporary Protective Status, TPS.) are permanent programs. There is nothing temporary about these programs to the left. The goal for Democrats is to flood/lure the country with illegal aliens & refugees, then fight against / eliminate deportations. Democrats want to encourage, reward, protect illegal aliens with jobs, amnesty, drivers licenses, discounts for college tuition, scholarships, then after they’re here….protect them from deportation. This creates MORE illegal entry and the Democrats know this.

    The current migration at our southern border is costing taxpayers a Kings Ransom. Fleeing persecution? or fleeing for freebies? they sure don’t stay in Mexico when they reach “safety” or ask for political asylum in Mexico. Why? because Mexico will give them NOTHING. So they make the long journey to our border, our generous Democrats and our tax dollars. Just debating DACA in congress is costing taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars….. thank the parents.

    Just a few examples of the more outrageous costs associated with illegal immigration, we will pass this burden on to our children and grand children as has been passed on to us.

    *The cost of educating illegal aliens children is staggering. From K-12 it costs taxpayers $122,000 for EACH illegal alien student. This does not include the billions spent on bilingual education for illegal aliens.

    *Taxpayers in numerous states are funding in state college tuition discounts for illegal aliens. Cost to taxpayers over a billion dollars annually.

    *30% percent of all Federal Prison inmates are illegal aliens.Does not include local jails and State Prisons. At $21,000 per year expense per inmate in Federal Prison U do the math.

    *$3Million Dollars a DAY is spent to incarcerate, process Illegal aliens in the Criminal justice system. I repeat 3 MILLION a DAY.

    *$2.2Billion dollars a year is spent on is spent on food assistance programs such as SNAP (food stamps) WIC, & free school lunches.

    If you OPPOSE illegal immigration, taxpayer funds used for illegal aliens, sanctuary cities, non citizens voting, open borders, amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, weak border security, tax increases. VOTE NO for ALL Democrats this November.

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