Jacob Ogles
The most important question about how the 2019 Legislative Session will end may already be answered. Though a late-discovered entry suddenly reset the field.
No, it’s not about health care or criminal justice reform or any of those policy-related questions only nerds and policy wonks ask.
This is about who correctly will call the great #CateSineDie query.
Each year, that special population of lobbyists, staffers, journos and other Tallahassee addicts take guesses at when the Legislature sergeants ritually drop handkerchiefs and send everybody home.
The term Sine Die dates back to Roman times (or something; it’s Latin).
CATECOMM founder Kevin Cate branded this session side bet with a self-serving social media hashtag and here we are.
2019 #CateSineDie begins now. Guess time/date of hanky drop on Fla. Legislative Session, as reported by @fineout. Closest w/o going over wins choice of legit charity to receive $300. Deadline 4/26 by 10 AM.
Must include #CateSineDie
Closest 10 get session socks by @DivvyUpSocks pic.twitter.com/jBPs373l6L— Kevin Cate (@KevinCate) April 25, 2019
Cate recorded guesses through the morning of April 26, before budget sessions could be settled or last minute policy battled could be waged.
The closest supposition will get $300 contributed to a legal charity of their choice. For reasons best left unexplored, Politico’s Gary Fineout gets to call the moment the hanky drop hits.
Wagers could be perused this week at catesinedie.com. But as Senate President Bill Galvano and Speaker of the House Jose Oliva wrestled into Tuesday evening over a state budget, predictions died faster than Tampa’s Stanley Cup dreams. As talks stretched into Wednesday, nearly every bet fell.
Why? A three-day required waiting period after the budget to call Sine Day started to kill countless wagers.
Our colleagues at St. Pete Polls made most optimistic prediction, that cloths would drop at 12:03 p.m. on Friday. Such hopes were dashed by lunch.
At least two guesses figured session would run into Saturday, Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch (who predicted 10 minutes past midnight) and Wakulla Chamber of Commerce President Rachel Sutz Pienta (who guessed 1:59 a.m.).
Heading into the last day of session it appeared a flagrant abuse of The Price Is Right-inspired bylaws would win the day.
Real Talk Radio 93.3 host Greg Tish issued the furthest out official prediction, believing lawmakers would flout the law and delay a return home until July 16. And yes, that absurd surely wins the day.
“He always wins,” Cate informed Florida Politics via Twitter.
But then it became clear, another entry that never made the leaderboard had gone unnoticed by Cate’s crew.
Enter Alec Polansky, part of the Florida House Victory Fund team.
Polansky guessed the session will end Monday at 3:25 p.m.
That should put Polansky in position to win. Oliva and Galvano announced to their respective chambers on Wednesday that the session should end at 1:32 p.m. Saturday.
That’s right. The House Democrats political operation scored the victory. But it’s probably best to wait until the session truly comes to a close to make sure there’s no upset in the making.
Regardless, all those less-than-Tish-levels of pessimism won’t go unrewarded. Cate promised the top 10 guesses can add to their sock collection.
