Peter Schorsch
Monday was the last day of the third fundraising quarter for Florida congressional candidates and the last day of the month a year out from primaries for the state’s legislative candidates.
Here are the six Florida campaign finance reports we can’t wait to see over the next two weeks.
Is Ted Yoho raising money after flirting with not running?
Last year, Yoho said “you can bank” on him not running for reelection. Though the Gainesville Republican’s intentions seemed clear at the time, the situation has gotten murkier in the months since. He filed a statement of candidacy around Christmas and has been raising money for his campaign — albeit slowly. He hauled in about $14,000 in the second quarter. If there’s a substantial spike in Q3 contribs, you can bank on him running for another term in Florida’s 3rd Congressional District.
Will Charlie Crist face a legitimate threat in 2020?
Despite Crist’s popularity and the district’s Democratic lean, a slew of Republicans, including Amanda Makki and Anna Paulina Luna, have joined the race. Luna’s Q3 report will be her first since entering the race. At the very least, it’ll show whether the GOP primary in Florida’s 13th Congressional will be one to keep an eye on. Thus far, Makki is the only one of the five Republicans running who has shown any traction in the fundraising game — she cleared $220,000 in her first month on the trail. Still, that pales in comparison to Crist, who raised $430,000 in Q2 and has $2.28 million in the bank.
Can Ross Spano finally get it right?
From the start of his 2018 bid to now, Spano’s campaign finance reports have been a comedy of errors that have led to a serious investigation. First, there was the personal loan scandal — a saga that has yet to be rectified on paper. Then, there was his distinct lack of grassroots support in the first quarter. Finally, there was his paltry Q2 performance, which left his reelection campaign $16,000 in the red. At this point, odds are Spano will find a way to dig himself into a deeper hole. Democratic state Rep. Adam Hattersley has a chance to capitalize on his opponent’s struggles, but if his inaugural report is a dud Spano may well bumble his way into a second term.
Will Margaret Good raise the cash to compete with Vern Buchanan?
Good, a Democrat, is looking to oust U.S. Rep. Buchanan next year. It’s something many Democrats have tried but, thus far, none have come close to flipping Florida’s 16th Congressional District. Still, Good’s victories in her two state House elections prove she can compete in Republican-leaning districts. Key to her success in flipping HD 72? Cash. Lots of it. At the end of Q2, Buchanan had about $500,000 in the bank, so catching up to him isn’t out of the question. But his fundraising acumen is on par with Good’s. If he posts a monster report and Good drops a stinker, it’ll be a major blow to Good. One she probably can’t afford since she has done her best to alienate national Democrats in the early goings of her campaign.
Did Laura Loomer collect any checks?
Democratic U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel has held Florida’s 21st Congressional District since it was redrawn ahead of the 2012 elections, and she hasn’t had a hard time doing it. Last year, she went unopposed. In 2016, she steamrollered Republican Paul Spain, trapping over 60 percent of the vote. Still, a half-dozen Republicans have signed up for the opportunity to get a beatdown in the heavily blue district. One of them, Laura Loomer, could make the election entertaining in the most cringeworthy of ways. Loomer is a far-right political activist, to the point she was banned from CPAC and pretty much every social media network under the sun. Whether she’ll raise a dime is a mystery.
Will Debbie Mucarsel-Powell lose ground?
Last year, Mucarsel-Powell edged out former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo by just 2 points in Florida’s 26th Congressional District. It was a major coup for Democrats, though the pendulum swings both ways — she quickly made the DCCC’s list of vulnerable House members. Two Republicans are looking to flip the seat back in 2020: Irina Vilarino and Omar Blanco. Blanco entered the race halfway through the quarter, so the true benchmark for Republican traction in the district is more likely to come through Vilarino’s filing. She had a successful Q2, topping $230,000 in receipts and cracking $250,000 banked. Still, Mucarsel-Powell pulled in nearly $600,000 during the same stretch and had more than $930,000 on hand heading into July. If Vilarino can build on her momentum with a second solid report, she might be up to the task of putting CD 26 back in the R column.
