Would Mike Bloomberg defeat Donald Trump in an election? Gamblers are literally betting on it.
Standard Chartered Bank just released study of gambling markets by researchers Steve Englander and Geoff Kendrick. The findings show those engaged in online market pricing consider Bloomberg the most likely Democrat to beat Trump, if he can secure the nomination.
“But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10%,” researchers note.
The poll looks at views of investors, and looked at who they considered the most “asset-friendly.” That seemed notable as the candidates seen as having the best chance to oust Trump—Bloomberg and Vice President Joe Biden—were also viewed as investor-friendly choices.
Englander told CNBC the markets generally don’t worry about economic disruption as a result of the Presidential election in November. That’s likely at least in part because the race is so far off, but he also offered an “alternative explanation: That the candidates who are most electable are seen as the least unfriendly to asset markets.”
In the view of gamblers in selected online markets, Bloomberg would have the best chance at winning a general election, followed by Biden, and then Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Kendrick and Englander’s research gave the worst general election odds to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
However, online gamblers still gave a strong chance of Trump winning.
Not surprisingly, 90% expect Trump to win the Republican nomination. But online markets increasingly like his overall electoral odds, the study shows. He’s priced with a 55-60% chance of winning a second term. That’s higher odds than any Democrats enjoy.
Researchers showed a comparison of selected online retail markets and the median Oddschecker probability regarding major candidates. The rankings varied little between the two measures.
One curiosity was that while betters see Bloomberg as the best-positioned foil to Trump, few see him as likely to become President.
Biden leads the field of people likely to win the nomination, followed by Sanders.