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Mike Bloomberg is going about his presidential campaign in an unorthodox way.

2020

Betting on Mike Bloomberg? Online markets say he has best shot to beat Donald Trump

But they don’t like his odds of winning the Democratic nomination.

Would Mike Bloomberg defeat Donald Trump in an election? Gamblers are literally betting on it.

Standard Chartered Bank just released study of gambling markets by researchers Steve Englander and Geoff Kendrick. The findings show those engaged in online market pricing consider Bloomberg the most likely Democrat to beat Trump, if he can secure the nomination.

“But his nomination probabilities are currently running just over 10%,” researchers note.

The poll looks at views of investors, and looked at who they considered the most “asset-friendly.” That seemed notable as the candidates seen as having the best chance to oust Trump—Bloomberg and Vice President Joe Biden—were also viewed as investor-friendly choices.

Englander told CNBC the markets generally don’t worry about economic disruption as a result of the Presidential election in November. That’s likely at least in part because the race is so far off, but he also offered an “alternative explanation: That the candidates who are most electable are seen as the least unfriendly to asset markets.”

In the view of gamblers in selected online markets, Bloomberg would have the best chance at winning a general election, followed by Biden, and then Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Kendrick and Englander’s research gave the worst general election odds to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

However, online gamblers still gave a strong chance of Trump winning.

Not surprisingly, 90% expect Trump to win the Republican nomination. But online markets increasingly like his overall electoral odds, the study shows. He’s priced with a 55-60% chance of winning a second term. That’s higher odds than any Democrats enjoy.

Researchers showed a comparison of selected online retail markets and the median Oddschecker probability regarding major candidates. The rankings varied little between the two measures.

One curiosity was that while betters see Bloomberg as the best-positioned foil to Trump, few see him as likely to become President.

Biden leads the field of people likely to win the nomination, followed by Sanders.

Written By

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at jacobogles@hotmail.com.

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