Jacob Ogles
Political prognosticators at Inside Elections say Rep. Ross Spano may be in trouble. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could also be in a better place.
Meanwhile, Editor Nathan L. Gonzales lists incumbents like Vern Buchanan, Stephanie Murphy and John Rutherford as “safe.”
The most recent update of the nonpartisan operation’s House Outlook shows 35 Democratic seats in play this election cycle, compared to 30 Republican seats.
But the update on Monday delivered a sign of trouble for the GOP.
The team there most notably moved Spano, a Dover Republican, from the “Solid R” to “Likely R” list.
“The House Ethics Committee deferred its investigation of Spano’s potentially improper loans for his 2018 campaign to the Justice Department,” reads an update. “And the congressman had just $125,000 in his campaign account on Dec. 31. The district leans Republican, but Democrats might take advantage of Spano’s problems.”
The site notes Democratic contenders have raised significant resources for the race, including state lawmaker Adam Hattersley and former journalist Alan Cohn.
The site offers no commentary on Mucarsel-Powell, a South Florida Democrat.
But the site has shifted the freshman Democrat into the “Likely D.”
That puts her in an equivalent amount of risk as Spano.
Mucarsel-Powell had also drawn well-heeled challengers including restaurateur Irina Vilariño and Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez.
But most of Florida’s districts, open or not, remain in the “Safe Seats” category for Inside Elections.
That means Buchanan, a Sarasota Republican, doesn’t appear at risk despite facing a challenge from Democratic lawmaker Margaret Good. That’s consistent with the available polling on that race.
Also in the safe category are Orlando Democrat Stephanie Murphy, who knocked out a Republican in 2016, despite a long list of GOP challengers.
Freshman Rep. Donna Shalala, a Miami Democrat, sits in the safe column despite flipping a red seat in 2018. She faces a rematch with Maria Elvira Salazar this year.
The site also sees no reason for Rep. John Rutherford to worry despite facing a Democratic opponent in Donna Deegan.
And an open seat to succeed Rep. Francis Rooney, with eight candidates vying for the nomination, remains safely red.
