Early voting trends in Hillsborough County are favoring Republican turnout

If early voting and vote by mail turnout in Hillsborough County is any indication so far, President Donald Trump’s goal to use divisions within the Democratic Party to his advantage might be panning out.

As of Tuesday morning at 9 a.m. 40,524 Republicans had already cast a ballot in this year’s Presidential Preference Primary with only 31,334 Democrats having cast a vote.

Those numbers despite the fact that Trump is not facing a credible threat to his party’s nomination and a Democratic voter registration advantage in the blue county. Democrats have nearly 72,000 more registered voters than Republicans in the county.

Early voting turnout is also trending lower than in 2016, another sign of potential trouble for Democrats as they seek desperately to topple Trump this year. Early voting turnout on the first day of voting in 2016 was 3,735. This year’s Monday turnout, also the first day of in-person voting, reached just 2,810.

There are several mitigating factors, however.

No incumbent was running in 2016, meaning voters on both sides of the aisle had competitive races driving turnout.

Still, the fact that more Republicans have shown up than Democrats shows Trump supporters are flocking to the polls to support their candidate despite a non-competitive race.

However, Democrats are facing uncertainty with their votes as they wait for Super Tuesday results to roll in. Nearly a third of all delegates are assigned based on results in states participating in Super Tuesday races.

Voters in Florida have until March 17 to cast their ballot, which means many Democrats might be sitting on their votes to see what happens after polls close Tuesday.

While Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is so far the clear frontrunner and several candidates have already dropped out, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg this week, some candidates still in the race for Super Tuesday may either drop out if they don’t perform well or be considered less viable.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, for example, did not participate in any of the first four primaries or caucuses, meaning his first showing at the polls will come later Tuesday. His future in the race will largely be considered after the final polls close on the West coast.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also depending on a strong showing Tuesday. If she turns in a solid performance, it may give her first-choice voters confidence to cast their ballots for her. If she doesn’t, they may opt to vote for a second choice.

The same could also go for former Vice President Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, in Orange County, similar trends were forming. As Florida Politics reporter Scott Powers reported Tuesday morning, 3,216 voters cast a ballot there on the first day of early voting compared with 3,125 on the first day four years ago.

While those numbers favor turnout this year and will only grow throughout the day, the difference is similarly mitigated considering 2016 competitive Republican primary. Of the total Monday turnout in that county, 36% were cast by Republicans.

Early voting doesn’t begin in Pinellas County until March 7, but vote by mail turnout so far is also favoring Republicans. More than 41,000 Republicans had returned a ballot as of Tuesday morning compared to just over 25,000 for Democrats.