Does Thursday’s coronavirus spike reset the clock on Gov. DeSantis’ plan to reopen the economy?

After five days of declining coronavirus cases, Florida spiked again Thursday, raising questions about Gov. Ron DeSantis’ goal of partially reopening Florida’s economy May 1.

The Florida Department of Health reported 1,261 new cases Thursday, the highest number of new cases reported in a single day in more than two weeks.

Under President Donald Trump’s Opening Up America Again plan, on which DeSantis is modeling his own strategies, phase one is triggered only when a state has seen declining numbers for 14 days.

Florida had been more than on track to meet that criteria before Thursday, posting fewer than 1,000 new cases per day for five days straight. April 16 and 17th saw 1,204 and 1,096 new cases, respectively, after a four-day spread with fewer than 1,000 cases, including April 14 when just 597 cases were reported. All three of those spikes corresponded to a correlated increase in testing.

That distinction, though, could be moot. Because testing is limited, in almost all circumstances, only those showing symptoms or who have had direct contact with someone who has already tested positive receive tests, meaning these weren’t arbitrary tests. There would have had to have been a corresponding spike in individuals in either of those two scenarios.

That begs the question: Should the Governor reset the 14-day clock on reopening the state’s economy?

The answer may very well come later. DeSantis’ office is expected to receive a rough draft of recommendations from his Re-Open Florida Task Force Friday, and the group is expected to approve those recommendations early next week.

That gives at least the weekend to observe daily trends. Should Thursday’s spike be an anamaly, he may make the decision to move forward despite the spike.

However, if new cases show a similar trend Friday and over the weekend, DeSantis could face calls to hit the pause button and delay his reopening strategy.

Friday’s numbers are already set up to potentially match Thursday with 526 new cases reported overnight. Daily reports have trended with similar amounts in the morning and evening reports. Still, even if the caseload doubled from the morning, Friday’s numbers would still be lower than Thursdays, and less than the most recent spikes before that on April 16th and 17th.

DeSantis also has some other data to make the case for not restarting the clock. The Thursday spike is not the peak. That happened on April 3 when just over 1,300 new cases were reported.

Even if case numbers hold around 1,200 over the weekend, DeSantis could argue it still represented a downward trend from the peak.

There’s some other data to watch, too. One week ago, Jacksonville opened its beaches on a provisional and limited basis, but images of the first evening beaches were open showed crowds, in many cases, not following social distancing guidelines requiring six-feet of separation.

If Jacksonville begins seeing spikes in new cases, which have been declining for more than a week, that too could play into the reopening narrative. So far, the city has not seen a new spike in cases, but the virus incubation period is two weeks and test results take days to come back, meaning a potential spike is likely too soon to emerge in reports.

Similar situations are true in other areas across the state as local governments begin allowing beach access on a limited basis.