- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Columbia University
- Imperial College of London
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
- united states
- University of Geneva
- University of Massachusetts
- University of Texas
- Youyang Gu.
Nationally and in Tallahassee a great deal of attention and criticism has been paid towards epidemiological models being used to predict how bad the COVID-19 outbreak could be, yet the CDC is using forecasting models that may suggest even worse scenarios than the most commonly-cited.
Much of the attention and criticism has focused on the widely-cited The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model produced at the University of Washington, which predicts more than 1,900 deaths in Florida by August, and more than 72,000 deaths nationally by that time.
In particular, Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed strong frustration with reports citing the institute’s projections, particularly earlier projections that were far higher before Florida began seriously locking down and flattening its curve of infection growth. The curve now appears on a downslope.
Yet a consensus of models used by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which do not include the IHME model now is projecting that Florida’s outbreak would result in a total of 2,000 COVID-19-caused deaths by May 30. The CDC tracks models from eight research offices, and does not user the IHME model.
That same ensemble of models is projecting the America’s death toll from the new coronavirus will be just under 100,000 by the end of May.
These are the models the federal government is relying on, and which the CDC is using to advise the states.
“The federal government is working closely with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Forecasts of deaths will help inform public health decision-making by projecting the likely impact in coming weeks,” the CDC states on its website.
Through Sunday, Florida has suffered 1,379 COVID-19 deaths, according to the Florida Department of Health. The United States has seen a total of 67,461 die from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins University & Medicine’s Coronavirus Resource Center.
The CDC is working with models developed by Columbia University, Imperial College London, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University off Geneva, University of Massachusetts at Amherst, University of Texas at Austin, and independent researcher Youyang Gu.
Those individual models offer May 30 projections of COVID-19 deaths in Florid that range from 1,565 forecast by the University of Texas, to 2,332 forecast by Columbia University.