Associated Press
As Europe and the U.S. loosen their lockdowns against the coronavirus, health experts are expressing growing dread over what they say is an all-but-certain second wave of deaths and infections that could force governments to clamp back down.
“We’re risking a backslide that will be intolerable,” said Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University’s Center for Infection and Immunity.
Around the world, German authorities began drawing up plans in case of a resurgence of the virus. Experts in Italy urged intensified efforts to identify new victims and trace their contacts. And France, which hasn’t yet eased its lockdown, has already worked up a “reconfinement plan” in the event of a new wave.
“There will be a second wave, but the problem is to which extent. Is it a small wave or a big wave? It’s too early to say,” said Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus unit at France’s Pasteur Institute.
In the U.S., with about half of the states easing their shutdowns to get their economies restarted and cellphone data showing that people are becoming restless and increasingly leaving home, public health authorities are worried.
Many states have not put in place the robust testing that experts believe is necessary to detect and contain new outbreaks. And many governors have pressed ahead before their states met one of the key benchmarks in the Trump administration’s guidelines for reopening — a 14-day downward trajectory in new illnesses and infections.
“If we relax these measures without having the proper public health safeguards in place, we can expect many more cases and, unfortunately, more deaths,” said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy with the Kaiser Family Foundation in Washington.
Cases have continued to rise steadily in places such as Iowa and Missouri since the governors began reopening, while new infections have yo-yoed in Georgia, Tennessee and Texas.
Lipkin said he is most worried about two things: the reopening of bars, where people crowd together and lose their inhibitions, and large gatherings such as sporting events, concerts and plays. Preventing outbreaks will require aggressive contact tracing powered by armies of public health workers hundreds of thousands of people strong, which the U.S. doesn’t yet have, Lipkin said.
Worldwide the virus has infected more than 3.6 million people and killed over a quarter-million, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University that experts agree understates the dimensions of the disaster because of limited testing, differences in counting the dead and concealment by some governments.
The U.S. has recorded over 70,000 deaths and 1.2 million confirmed infections, while Europe has reported over 140,000 dead.
This week, the researchers behind a widely cited model from the University of Washington nearly doubled their projection of deaths in the U.S. to around 134,000 through early August, in large part because of the easing of state stay-at-home restrictions. Newly confirmed infections per day in the U.S. exceed 20,000, and deaths per day are running well over 1,000.
In hard-hit New York City, which has managed to bring down deaths dramatically even as confirmed infections continue to rise around the rest of the country, Mayor Bill de Blasio warned that some states may be reopening too quickly.
“My message to the rest of the country is learn from how much effort, how much discipline it took to finally bring these numbers down and follow the same path until you’re sure that it’s being beaten back,” he said on CNN, “or else if this thing boomerangs, you’re putting off any kind of restart or recovery a hell of a lot longer.”
A century ago, the Spanish flu epidemic’s second wave was far deadlier than its first, in part because authorities allowed mass gatherings from Philadelphia to San Francisco.
“It’s clear to me that we are in a critical moment of this fight. We risk complacency and accepting the preventable deaths of 2,000 Americans each day,” epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers, a professor at Johns Hopkins, told a House subcommittee in Washington.
President Donald Trump, who has pressed hard to ease the restrictions that have throttled the economy and thrown more than 30 million Americans out of work, pulled back Wednesday on White House plans revealed a day earlier to wind down the coronavirus task force.
He tweeted that the task force will continue meeting indefinitely with a “focus on SAFETY & OPENING UP OUR COUNTRY AGAIN.”
Underscoring those economic concerns, the European Union predicted the worst recession in its quarter-century history. And the U.S. unemployment rate for April, which comes out Friday, is expected to hit a staggering 16 percent, a level last seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Governors continue to face demands, even lawsuits, to reopen. In Michigan, where armed demonstrators entered the Capitol last week, the Republican-led Legislature sued Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, asking a judge to declare invalid her stay-at-home order, which runs at least through May 15.
In hard-hit Italy, which has begun easing restrictions, Dr. Silvio Brusaferro, president of the Superior Institute of Health, urged “a huge investment” of resources to train medical personnel to monitor possible new cases of the virus, which has killed about 30,000 people nationwide.
He said that contact-tracing apps — which are being built by dozens of countries and companies — aren’t enough to manage future waves of infection.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after meeting with the country’s 16 governors that restaurants and other businesses will be allowed to reopen in the coming weeks but that regional authorities will have to draw up a “restriction concept” for any county that reports 50 new cases for every 100,000 inhabitants within a week.
Lothar Wieler, head of Germany’s national disease control center, said scientists “know with great certainty that there will be a second wave” of infections.
Britain, with over 30,000 dead, the second-highest death toll in the world behind the U.S., plans to extend its lockdown but has begun recruiting 18,000 people to trace contacts of those infected.
In other developments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said nearly 5,000 coronavirus illnesses and at least 88 deaths have been reported among inmates in American jails and prisons. An additional 2,800 cases and 15 deaths were reported among guards and other staffer members.
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Republished with permission from the Associated Press.
2 comments
Margaret Blustine
May 6, 2020 at 8:55 pm
Fla is way over 50 cases per 100000.fla numbers see saw daily with even lowest way too high rising total cases and deaths daily.fla has not 1 day not has higher cases not one.why isn’t fla noted as 1 also shouldn’t open yet.not even 3 declining days not 14.is not peaked is not flattened cases increasing way too high daily to open.of course increasing so fla is part of Florida cases de santis glosses over dangerously.and uses fake numbers.no flattening at all. Is risk backfire whole state as unleashes thousands unknown infected and carriers now restaurants etc.listening to morons instead of majority 82 per cent voters say fla not ready.looser restrictions with fla being 6th highest cases out of 50 when loose restrictions.now March april caused epicenters still continuing daily increase too high cases in South floRida as ny flooded in all went everywhere infecting obviously still motivated contained near enough.now looser phase 1 will make within treasure coast miami epicenters sevl counties by mid June a disaster.tests not enuf.stop talks tests.minimal.truthfully look chart fla.no consecutive declining except way high cases still.virus will sicken kill so many as so florida not stable even and now treasure coast many counties have been steady daily increase last 3 weeks and he opens restaurants stores no MasKS eating.fla will not see what ny did to slow but is copying Italy track without ever strict lockdown so virus flood like wildfire be statewide diaster by end June and impossible control in any way statewide in 2 weeks.another de santis mistake as he ignores deal guidelines and uses useless figures mean nothing in reality.nation trump chooses task force open is not possible safely. Trump plan started de santis state is let virus run loose see what happens.what already happened so fla with loose restrictions will now be disaster phase 1 too early now. Trump herd immunity plan focus now escaping de santis getting it.325 million people trumps experiment now reopen and he is not doing it safely at all is going to allow fast wildfire spread thru America with so many people now out expoentially infectiNguyen most of America rapid fast on wave 1 still that wave will continue with million daily new cases thru 2021.America is worst handled still and numbers all worse than entire world.now with that diaster worsening daily his new focus plan reopen with those numbers is won’t get bad as he says will be total usa economic collapse.fla is awful numbers.look at charts.de santis fooled being used start trumps herd immunity while trump talks abt Kemp to deflect how bad other states conditions is so he can unleash spreading virus.other countries must stop him too now as these let loose infected unknown carriers soon going international again per trumps loose insane actions.herd immunity won’t work.antibody tests too little.now new strain out recovered get sick again.protesters not that many long get in news.trump de santis use as excuse open ignoring safe 14 day guidelines.fla will have millions more unemployed by June 15.will have unstoppable millions sick daily ongoing by end july.America same loose virus running rampart starting with conned south states will have no economy by August for decades in america.will infect planet with infected traveling americans now all countries by dec. Total their hard work.some morons who ignore reality and protest need to be pretested despite their ignorance they won’t get sick.die.they will.Tyson Smithfield etc show clearly how fast so many workers get sick.trumps herd immunity plan obviously is reopen even high number states still rising daily on and on til he destroys economy in America totally by August for years,his ego driven reopen too early now plan he’s got task force now doing unsafe lyn across America will keep fla and america in wildfire spreading. First wave without let up thru 2021. No country is doing trumps mass murderous experiment.they proved strict lockdownworked.only that.of course America will finally strict lockdown to save economy if our leaders did it enforced it and made some efforts,sure some morons will go out but majority will comply as have many states.trump lazy doesn’t want bother do what successful countries data proved works.rather start this irrational insane high risk doomed to fail herd immunity experiment that will fail fast in 325 million population.our president is a murderereally and insane out of touch with the reality of virus and United nations must stop reopen top early with usa numbers now.because his phase 1 etc will infect reinfect destroy now traveling carriers and unknown infected internationally starting now and destroy their hard work their economies also to disaster.American travelers right now allowed international travel per his new loose kill kill hitler mentality plan while de santis deflected by testg etc etc instead seeing trumps almost hidden agenda but it isn’t if you listen to him and see what’s he opening way too soon.usa will soon pass world totals by incredible increases till very soon no body working no business open.way too many millions millions unknown infected and carriers now this week let loose to rapid fire cripple businesses and economy.people want to work.most want wait and get strict lockdown as trump loose one de santis loose one etc having catastrophic numbers daily.trumps right now actions using governors and ignoring any guidelines is impossible safely open.that’s a contradition.and United nations needs to stop him as his actions new plan started fake phase 1 etc will affect every country very fast with catastrophic global runaway destruction.it’s plain to see. He doesn’t care.his mind is irrational and fedl govt won’t step up governors won’t step up.so bully trump must be stopped as his reopen America now way too
Early is on a track fast for global economic and population diaster.
Anes11
May 6, 2020 at 10:29 pm
Time for phase 2. The curve has flattened. The point was not to keep anyone from getting sick. It’s a novel virus made by China, and we are not immune. People are gonna catch it. Most folks do just fine. Old and sickly need to be very careful with hand hygiene and respiratory droplets. Stop the lockdown. It’s anti science and common sense.
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