Betting markets show Florida up for grabs for Joe Biden, Donald Trump

Image via AP.

Polls are one thing. Now betting markets show Joe Biden has as good a chance of winning Florida as Donald Trump.

In fact, the markets peg Florida as more closely divided than any state. Tracking by Oddschecker, which grades odds on sporting events and politics, shows roughly 50/50 chance for the Democrats or Republicans to take Florida in November.

“Florida has been a swing state for generations and 2020 is no different, but this data shows just how close the fight is this year,” said Pete Watt, Oddschecker spokesman.

A market examination suggests -110 odds of Republicans winning, or 10/11 in fractional odds, and +110 odds for Democrats, 11/10 fractional odds.

That still gives the slightest edge to Trump, basically giving him a 52% chance of winning. But it also puts Biden’s odds right around 50%.

That’s a significant change from the state of play before the COVID-19 pandemic struck the U.S. OddsChecker said it started looking at the market on March 5, and at that point, Republicans enjoyed -225 odds of winning, or a greater than 69% chance of carrying Florida.

“As evidenced by the graphic, just 12 weeks ago the Republicans were considered relatively comfortable frontrunners to retain the state they won in 2016,” Watt said.

“However, it seems that a number of factors – including perhaps Trump’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis – have tipped the scales towards equilibrium, and it might not be too long before we see the Democrats favorite to take back the Sunshine State.”

There are other factors as well. Twelve weeks ago there was relative uncertainty about who would become the presumptive Democratic nominee. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and other candidates were still locked in battle for that title, and Sanders always fared poorly in Florida polls. Since then, Biden dominated Florida’s March 17 presidential primary.

But it’s also notable to see Trump’s odds wither badly In what’s now his home state.

One fact that’s always a sure bet? Florida’s 29 electoral votes will remain a top prize in the 2020 election. And seeing even odds now only reinforces the notion whichever campaign wins the state will have to fight hard to do so.

The betting markets data came out the same day a Florida Atlantic University poll found Biden leaning in Florida with 53% of the vote.