Drew Wilson
In another odd turn for an already odd year, the Republican National Convention is coming to Jacksonville. The flashy, nationally televised portion, at least.
In mid-August, thousands of GOP insiders will flock to the Bold City to watch President Donald Trump formally accept the 2020 Republican nomination.
But will the convention move the needle in Florida? Florida Politics’ panel of Influencers say no by an overwhelming margin.
Nearly two-thirds of those polled said RNC 2020 will either make no difference in how Florida votes in the fall (57%) or could even hurt Trump’s chances of carrying the Sunshine State (7%).
“The conventions typically serve as a prime speaking spot to amplify the President’s message. The last time Jacksonville had a major event, cruise ships were used as lodging,” one Influencer said. “Do you really want to risk that after effect becoming the story this cycle?”
Broken down by party, half of Republicans, two-thirds of Democrats and three-quarters of no-party affiliated Influencers think it’s all for show.
As far as who will win the Sunshine State, a plurality say Trump will defeat former Vice President Joe Biden to earn a second term.
Republicans predict that outcome by a 58%-7% margin with 35% saying the election is too close to call five months out.
Democrats do have confidence Biden can pull off the upset, with 54% expecting a W, however 18% believe Trump will win and 29% are unsure.
Half of NPAs are on the fence with Biden leading 42% to 8% among those willing to make a prediction one way or the other.
While Influencers say the RNC-to-Jax development won’t be a factor on Election Day, they do believe widespread protests over George Floyd’s killing are hurting Trump’s chances.
Overall, two-thirds say the protests are hurting Trump either a little (48%) or a lot (20%). Just 28% see an upside for the incumbent.
The toplines held true across party lines. About five in six Democrats say the protests are a net negative for POTUS while 75% of independents and 55% of Republicans agree.
“Many of the protesters come from the Bernie wing of the party. What has happened over the last few weeks helps make certain that they vote for Joe Biden in larger numbers than they did Hillary Clinton. There is a new urgency,” one Influencer said.
The dissenters were vocal, too, however.
“What happened to George Floyd was awful and those responsible should and will be punished for their actions. However, national liberal activist groups have since hijacked the George Floyd movement and have already gone too far. Remember who actually turns out to vote … Donald Trump will win again. Don’t believe me? Three Words: Occupy Wall Street,” one Influencer told Florida Politics.
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The Influencers who took part in this survey: Tom Alte, Jason Altmire, Phil Ammann, Allison Aubuchon, Roger Austin, Ashley Bauman, Geoffrey Becker, Wayne Bertsch, Alex Bickley, Taylor Biehl, Barney Bishop, Samantha Blair, Katie Bohnett, Ron Book, Reggie Cardozo, Bill Carlson, Kevin Cate, James Chan, Clayton Clemens, Brad Coker, Rachel Cone, Josh Cooper, Gus Corbella, Kevin Craig, Karen Cyphers, Jim Daughton, Claudia Davant, Hayden Dempsey, Pablo Diaz, Victor DiMaio, Andrew Dolberg, Charles Dudley, Pete Dunbar, Barry Edwards, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Matt Florell, Shawn Foster, Towson Fraser, Don Gaetz, Steve Geller, Adam Giery, Julia Gill Woodward, Jennifer Green, Joel Greenberg, Marion Hammer, Nick Hansen, Abel Harding, Rich Heffley, Tasi Hogan, Jim Horne, Nick Janovsky, Eric Johnson, Jeff Johnson, Christina Johnson, Marva Johnson, Stafford Jones, Todd Josko, Eric Jotkoff, Fred Karlinsky, Joshua Karp, Colin Kirkland, John Konkus, Jeff Kottkamp, Beth Lerner, McKinley Lewis, Karis Lockhart, Shannon Love, John Lux, Beth Matuga, Clarence McKee, Kathy Mears, Ketchel Micah, Ed Moore, Dan Newman, Tim Nungesser, Sal Nuzzo, Rhett O’Doski, Rick Oppenheim, Meredith ORourke, Edie Ousley, Jenna Paladino, Alex Patton, Darryl Paulson, Anthony Pedicini, Juan Penalosa, Fred Piccolo, Ron Pierce, Noah Pransky, Cissy Proctor, Orlando Pryor, Bert Ralston, Foyt Ralston, David Ramba, Marc Reichelderfer, Darren Richards, Jim Rimes, Franco Ripple, Stephanie Rosendorf-Diaz, Evan Ross, Scott Ross, Ashley Ross, Jason Roth, Elnatan Rudolph, Andrew Rutledge, Ron Sachs, Meagan Salisbury, April Schiff, Pierce Schuessler, Jack Seiler, Stephen Shiver, Steve Simonides, Alex Sink, Patrick Slevin, Tim Stapleton, Mac Stipanovich, Eileen Stuart, Sarah Suskey, Kevin Sweeny, Allison Tant, Cory Tilley, Christian Ulvert, Jenn Ungru, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Nancy Watkins, Screven Watson, Christian Weiss, Doug Wheeler, Susie Wiles, Gregory Wilson, Rick Wilson, Joe York, Christian Ziegler.
